BULL WIN THE YEAR

BULL WIN THE YEAR

Good morning,

We are closing the books on 2025 with a bang. Global equities are hovering near all-time highs as trading winds down for the year. It is a fitting end to a year defined by resilience and the relentless AI trade.

Speaking of AI, SoftBank just finalized a massive $40 billion investment in OpenAI. It is one of the largest private funding rounds in history and a clear signal that the capital hose is still wide open. Between record stock highs and mega-deals, the bulls are definitely in charge.

Getting started.

The Pulse

As of 12/30/2025 market close.

Markets

  • U.S. stocks finished near record highs on low volume.
  • Europe's Stoxx 600 hit a fresh record to cap a 16% annual gain.
    • Banks surged 65% for their best year since 1997.
  • The UK's FTSE 100 hit a new high to secure its best year since 2009.
  • Platinum hit a record high after the EU reversed its combustion engine ban.
    • The metal is up 146% this year.
  • The dollar dropped 9.5% in its worst year since 2017.

Earnings

  • See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

  • Gold has been quietly outperforming stocks for decades (Polymarket)

Headline Hunt

  • Activist investors are circling U.S. banks (WSJ)
  • Global stocks beat the U.S. this year as investors diversified (FT)
  • U.S. stocks defied "Sell America" warnings to end the year at records (WSJ)
  • China's PBOC delivered the fewest rate cuts since 2021 (BBG)
  • AI has fueled $70B in data center M&A talks this year (BBG)
  • AI chip makers are expecting an even bigger 2026 (WSJ)
  • Hopes are dimming for success among Covid-era VC funds (WSJ)
  • Tariffs set the U.S. materials sector up for its best earnings in five years (BBG)
  • Top U.S. law firms handed associates bonuses exceeding $300k (FT)
  • CME raised margins on precious metal futures for a second time (BBG)
  • Asia's wealthy are turning to Switzerland to park assets (FT)

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

  • Warner Bros. Discovery plans to reject Paramount Skydance's amended $108.4B hostile bid in favor of Netflix's offer. Oracle founder Larry Ellison personally offered an equity backstop.
  • Nvidia is in advanced talks to buy Israel-based AI startup AI21 Labs for $3B.
  • Meta agreed to acquire Chinese-led agentic AI startup Manus for over $2B.

Venture Flow

  • SoftBank completed its $40B investment in OpenAI. It marks one of the largest private funding rounds ever.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • UK renewable energy startup Octopus Energy will spin off its platform Kraken Technologies at an $8.65B valuation.
  • Four Chinese tech firms including MiniMax and Knowledge Atlas Technology are seeking to raise a combined $1.5B to $2B in Hong Kong IPOs next week.

Bankruptcy Watch

  • Hedge fund Arini Capital is contesting the inclusion of Ardagh's senior unsecured bonds in a CDS auction.

Crypto Corner

  • Netflix announced a crypto-themed comedy film.
  • David Beckham-backed Prenetics paused its Bitcoin treasury plans.

Today’s Meme Pick

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