PIMCO SAYS DON'T BET AGAINST THE USA

Good morning,

Bankers are pinning their hopes on private equity to revive the IPO market, Citadel is leading the hedge fund pack this year, and Meta is dialing back its metaverse ambitions. Meanwhile, Polymarket is building an internal trading team, PIMCO's contrarian bond bet paid off big time, and Diarmuid Early just won the 2025 Excel World Championship.

Getting started.

The Pulse

Markets

US stocks traded mostly flat yesterday as investors braced for the Fed's rate decision next week.
- The S&P and Nasdaq logged a third straight day of gains.
- Traders are pricing in a 90% chance of a third 25 basis point rate cut.
Japan's Nikkei 225 surged 2.3% following a strong government bond auction.
Silver pulled back 3.4% from all-time highs after an eight-day rally as traders took profits.
The Dollar snapped a nine-day losing streak.

Earnings

TD Bank Group beat underlying Q4 earnings and revenue and raised its dividend, even as reported results were weighed down by restructuring costs. (WSJ)
Kroger beat on earnings but missed revenue estimates and trimmed its outlook as price competition heats up. (BBG)
Ulta Beauty issued another beat-and-raise quarter as resilient beauty spending continues to outpace other categories. (CNBC)
Dollar General issued a beat-and-raise as bargain-hunting consumers flocked to its stores, sending shares to a 15-month high. (RT)
Docusign issued a beat-and-raise as subscription growth continued to drive momentum. (WSJ)
This week's lineup:
- Today: Victoria's Secret
See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

The Epstein files are legally set for release, but the timing remains uncertain.
Trade your odds on Polymarket.

Headline Hunt

US government debt topped $30T for the first time. (BBG)
Canada's banker bonus pools rose by 15%. (BBG)
Bankers urge PE to keep the IPO revival going in 2026. (BBG)
Private credit profits come under threat as loan margins narrow. (BBG)
Secondary investors are turning to middle-market continuation funds. (PB)
One-third of UBS's billionaire clients plan to cut PE exposure. (BBG)
Citadel and AQR are leading major hedge fund gains YTD. (RT)
PIMCO wins big after going contrarian on 'Sell America' bond bets. (BBG)
Jane Street's results were juiced by a surging bet on Anthropic. (BBG)
UK equity outflows continued at record pace ahead of the fiscal budget. (BBG)
Google exec sees AI search as an expansion for the internet. (RT)
Young Koreans dump homeowner dreams to pile into soaring stocks. (BBG)
PepsiCo is nearing a settlement with activist investor Elliott. (WSJ)
Mubadala sued a US PE firm for self-dealing. (FT)
Mubadala backs private credit bets after plowing in $20B. (BBG)
Polymarket is building an internal market making team. (BBG)
Apple poached Meta's legal chief as Big Tech exec turnover heats up. (BBG)
Vanguard plans Miami expansion to tap more LatAm wealth. (BBG)
Meta will cut metaverse spending by 30%. (BBG)
Diarmuid Early won the 2025 Excel World Championship. (X)

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

Netflix emerged as the highest bidder for Warner Bros. Discovery with an 85% cash offer; Paramount Skydance accused WBD of running an unfair sale process.
Stonepeak is in talks to acquire Castrol from BP for $8B.
India is seeking bids for its 61% stake worth $7B in IDBI Bank.
ITT is in advanced talks to buy SPX Flow from Lone Star at a $4.5B valuation.
Big Yellow Group terminated talks with Blackstone on a potential $3.6B deal.
Vodacom agreed to take control of Safaricom in a $2.4B deal.
UPM and Sappi plan to combine their graphic paper assets into a JV valued at $1.7B.
Apex Natural Gas agreed to buy natural gas assets from Comstock Resources for $430M.
Blackstone is weighing a sale of a London office building it bought for $220M.
Barington Capital joined Elliott and Starboard Value with a $25M stake in BILL and is pushing for a sale.
26North Partners agreed to acquire a 51% stake in Middleby's kitchen products unit at an $885M valuation.

Venture Flow

Paradigm Health raised a $78M Series B led by ARCH Venture Partners.
Flex raised a $60M Series B at a $500M valuation led by Portage Ventures.
Spark Cleantech raised a $35M Series A led by 360 Capital.
Lemurian Labs raised a $28M Series A co-led by Pebblebed Ventures and Hexagon.
Vambe raised a $14M Series A led by Monashees.
Unlimited Industries raised a $12M seed round led by a16z and CIV.
Guide Labs raised a $9M seed round led by Initialized Capital.
Alinia AI raised a $7.5M seed round led by Mouro Capital.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

Reliance started work on an IPO of Jio Platforms at a $170B valuation.
SoFi is seeking to raise $1.5B in a share sale.
Moore Threads surged 470% after raising $1.13B in China's second-largest IPO this year.
SoftBank agreed to sell a large portion of its stake in InMobi back to the firm for $250M.
Menzies Aviation is considering an IPO in 'a few years'.
TK Elevator is set to hire banks for what could be Europe's biggest IPO in years.
Xperisus is eyeing an IPO.

The Debt Desk

Blackstone and Antares Capital are lending over $2B to Mitratech.
Goldman Sachs paused a planned $1.3B MBS sale for CyrusOne following a major outage.
South Africa sold $1.75B in dollar-denominated bonds.

Bankruptcy Watch

Dynamic Star filed for bankruptcy to halt a foreclosure sale on Fordham Landing.

Fresh Capital

WindRose raised $2.6B for its seventh flagship fund.
Bain Capital and SMBC are launching a $1.75B European loan platform.
Blue Owl raised $1.7B for a fund to invest in data centers.
Two Sigma is raising for two new funds despite internal exec drama.
Stafford Capital Partners raised a $1.2B continuation fund.
A&M Capital plans to raise $500M for a debut secondaries fund.
Nexus Venture Partners raised a $700M fund for Indian tech startups and AI.
BlackRock halted plans for an infrastructure fund targeting wealthy Europeans.

Crypto Corner

CFTC approved crypto spot trading on registered exchanges.
BlackRock and Coinbase CEOs say crypto is edging further into mainstream finance.
Big banks are partnering with Coinbase on crypto pilots.
Bank of America expanded crypto access for wealth management clients.
Ex-Signature Bank execs launched new blockchain-based bank N3XT.
A crypto investor donated a record $12M to Reform UK.
Malaysia is hunting Bitcoin miners who stole $1B of electricity.

Today’s Meme Pick

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