🔹 PPI lands this morning as oil keeps the heat on

Today's Dispatch

› The first of two inflation reports — August PPI — lands at 8:30 this morning, before the bell.

› Stocks fell a third straight session Wednesday as oil and Treasury yields climbed together.

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› Brent crude closed above $101 — its highest since spring — keeping inflation fears alive.

› The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.857%, its highest since November 2023, despite a bigger buyback.

› Why gold is holding near $4,400 even as the dollar, yields, and oil all pull at it.

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The first of this week's two inflation reports arrives at 8:30 this morning, and it lands on a market already on edge. Stocks fell for a third straight session Wednesday as Brent crude closed above $101 — its highest since the spring — and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since November 2023. The August Producer Price Index, a measure of wholesale inflation, is expected to have risen; a hot reading would deepen worries that the Federal Reserve could raise rates next week. In my view, the market's mood now turns on whether this morning's number confirms the inflation fear that oil has been stoking, or eases it.

What Moved the Market

The index levels below are Wednesday's September 9 close — the most recent completed session; this morning's oil, gold, and yield figures are intraday, labeled as such.

Watch the bond and oil rows: yields at a near-two-year high alongside $101 oil are the pairing pressuring stocks — and the reason this morning's inflation print matters so much.

Here's what drove it:

• Oil pushed higher again. Brent crude closed above $101, up 3.4%, and U.S. crude settled near $96 — the highest in months — after further strikes in the Persian Gulf, with several vessels reported on fire. Oil has now risen sharply over the past month.
• Yields jumped despite a bigger buyback. The Treasury said it would triple its buyback of longer-dated debt to $6 billion, but the 10-year yield still rose to 4.857%, its highest since November 2023 — some investors had expected a larger program.
• Stocks fell a third day. The Dow dropped 405 points, the S&P lost 0.48%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.64%, with small caps hit hardest as the Russell 2000 slid 1.3%.
• Apple launched, shares dipped. Apple slipped about 1% during its "Surprise and Shine" event, where it unveiled a foldable iPhone Duo priced around $2,000, before rising about 1% in premarket trade Thursday.
• The inflation data is here. August PPI lands this morning — economists expect a monthly headline rise of about 0.4% and a core rise near 0.3% — with CPI to follow Friday, the last major reads before the Fed's September 15–16 meeting.

An oil shock and a restless bond market are the real story, not any single stock. When crude tops $101 and long-term yields hit a near-two-year high in the same week, it puts inflation back at the center of the conversation — exactly as the Fed prepares to decide on rates. That's why this morning's producer-price number carries extra weight: it's the first hard look at whether that oil-driven pressure is showing up in the broader inflation data.

Earnings

The holiday-shortened week is light on earnings, keeping the focus on oil and the inflation data — but a couple of major names report today.

• Oracle and Adobe report after today's close, two closely watched gauges of enterprise-software and AI-related demand.
• Kroger reports Friday, a read on grocery spending and the value-focused shopper.
• Apple's fall event delivered a foldable iPhone Duo near $2,000 and updated iPhones; the stock dipped during the event but firmed in premarket trade Thursday.
• The just-finished second-quarter season was strong, with the vast majority of S&P 500 companies beating estimates.

With few reports on the calendar, the week's direction rests on oil and the inflation numbers rather than any single company. That's a healthy reminder that a diversified portfolio doesn't hinge on one name's results; the macro picture is steering the market now, and it's one to watch calmly rather than trade around.

Gold & Silver Moves

My corner, and gold is showing quiet resilience in a hostile setting. Spot traded around $4,410 this morning — with December futures opening near $4,448 — while silver held near $67. What's notable is the backdrop it's holding against: a 10-year yield at a near-two-year high and rising oil are both headwinds for a metal that pays no interest, yet a softer dollar, which slipped toward a four-month low, has helped gold keep its footing. It's worth being precise here — gold sits near $4,400, well below its record high of $5,589.38 set in late January.

What matters here: gold is absorbing high yields and rising oil without breaking, helped by a weaker dollar — resilience under pressure, not a breakout.

Here's the read. Gold pays you nothing, so its rival is what a bond yields after inflation — and with the 10-year at 4.857%, that rival is as attractive as it's been in nearly two years. Normally that combination, plus a firmer tone in oil, would pull gold lower. Instead it's steady near $4,400, supported by a dollar sliding toward a four-month low. That tug-of-war — high yields pulling down, a weak dollar holding up — is why gold has traded in a narrow band around $4,400 for weeks. This morning's PPI, and Friday's CPI, are what could break the standoff in one direction or the other.

The Deal Room

The through-line: oil above $101, yields at a near-two-year high, and back-to-back inflation reports make this short week a genuine test of the Fed's September path.

Retirement Lens

So what does a third straight down day, with inflation data in hand this morning, mean for someone holding stocks, bonds, and a little gold?

Mostly, it's a week to keep perspective while the headlines run hot. Three losing sessions and $101 oil are uncomfortable, but the S&P 500 remains up roughly 12% in 2026 and only a few percent below its August record — this is a pullback within a strong year, not a collapse. And notice the balance at work: the same high yields pressuring stocks mean your bonds and new savings now earn the most income in nearly two decades, while gold has held its ground as ballast.

The honest uncertainty is this morning's PPI and Friday's CPI. A hot reading would firm the case for a Fed hike and could extend the pressure; a cooler one could steady things. No one knows which way it breaks — which is exactly why a diversified mix, rather than a bet on the number, is what carries you through a week like this.

Understand it, don't trade it. Oil is loud, yields are high, and the inflation reports are landing — and a portfolio built for the long haul meets a rough stretch the same way it meets a calm one: steadily, letting its balance absorb the noise. The market may lurch on this morning's number; your plan doesn't have to move at all.

The Bull Investor is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice. I am not your financial advisor. Do your own research before making any decision.

— Anthony