🔹 Both tech giants beat, and both stocks fell

Stocks set fresh records as Hegseth confirms the Iran ceasefire and oil retreats nearly 4%.

🔹 Both tech giants beat, and both stocks fell

Good afternoon,

Alphabet posted record revenue of $119.8 billion and cloud growth of 82% — and the stock fell more than 4% after hours. Tesla grew revenue 26% — and fell too. The common thread isn't disappointing results; it's spending. Alphabet raised its capital-expenditure guidance to as much as $205 billion, and Tesla's capex jumped 142%. In my view, the market has stopped asking whether these companies can grow and started asking what that growth is costing.

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What Moved the Market

The levels below are Wednesday's July 22 close — the last confirmed session — with this morning's moves labeled separately.

Brent at a six-week high, up 22% over the past month. That's the pressure keeping a lid on everything else. Source: Yahoo Finance, Trading Economics, TheStreet (Jul 22 close).

Here's what's driving it:

  • Oil hit a six-week high. Brent rose 3.4% to $94.13, briefly touching $94.40, as U.S. strikes on Iran continued and Houthi rebels targeted oil tankers in the Red Sea. Brent is up 22% over the past month.
  • A sobering debt figure surfaced. Goldman Sachs noted that roughly $489 billion in AI-related debt has been issued this year, with hyperscalers like Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta accounting for 40% of it.
  • Small caps led the decline. The Russell 2000 fell 0.92%, steeper than the large-cap indexes — a sign that risk appetite narrowed as oil climbed.
  • One bright spot: Super Micro Computer soared more than 16% after reporting over $60 billion in new fourth-quarter orders and plans to build an AI data center with SpaceX.
  • AT&T beat expectations, with revenue rising 2.3% year over year to $31.6 billion, exceeding forecasts on both earnings and subscriber additions.

Oil at $94 does two things at once — it raises costs across the economy and it keeps the Fed hawkish. That combination is why strong earnings keep getting sold. The good news has to fight through a headwind.

Earnings

The two most anticipated reports of the season landed, and both told the same story.

  • Alphabet posted record revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year over year and above expectations, with Google Cloud revenue surging 82% to $24.8 billion. Yet shares fell more than 4% after hours after management raised 2026 capital-expenditure guidance to $195–$205 billion and signaled significant further growth in 2027.
  • Tesla grew revenue 26% to $28.2 billion, but adjusted earnings of $0.33 per share missed the roughly $0.50 consensus badly. Capital expenditures jumped 142% to $5.79 billion, turning free cash flow negative at -$1.09 billion. Shares fell 2.5% to 4% after hours.
  • The bright spots underneath: Tesla's energy storage segment deployed a record 13.5 gigawatt-hours, up more than 40% year over year, and active full self-driving subscriptions reached 1.48 million.

These aren't struggling businesses — Alphabet's cloud is growing 82% and Tesla's energy arm set records. But both are spending enormous sums today for revenue that arrives tomorrow. The market has decided it wants to see the return before it pays for the promise.

Gold & Silver Moves

My corner, and yesterday's rally has cooled slightly. Gold climbed to $4,165.87 on Wednesday — its highest since July 7 — before slipping about 0.6% this morning to around $4,103. Silver eased 1.3% to roughly $58.84, giving back part of Wednesday's surge. The gold/silver ratio sits at about 69.5, up slightly from 69.0.

Gold pulling back from a two-week high even as oil climbs. The Fed, not the war, is setting the tone. Source: FXStreet, Reuters via The Star, Trading Economics (Jul 22–23).

Here's the read, and it's the same mechanism I keep returning to because it keeps proving itself. Gold pays you nothing to hold. Its true competitor is what a Treasury bond yields after inflation. Oil at $94 stokes inflation fears, which keeps the Fed leaning hawkish, which supports yields — and that caps gold. One analyst put it plainly: oil rising adds to inflation pressure and rate-hike expectations, which limits gold's upside even as the dollar weakens.

So gold gets pulled both ways. Safe-haven demand from an escalating war pushes it up; rate expectations push it down. The result is a metal that touched a two-week high yesterday and gave part of it back today. That's not indecision — that's two real forces in genuine balance.

Everything now points to next Wednesday. The FOMC meets July 28–29, and while most expect no change, traders assign roughly a 61% probability of a hike by September. A hold with patient language eases the real-yield pressure that has weighed on both metals all year. A hawkish tone extends it. That single meeting matters more to gold right now than another month of war headlines.

Gold is caught between war and the Fed, and the Fed is winning. Next Wednesday's decision will do more to determine the metals' direction than anything happening in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Deal Room

  • AI infrastructure: Super Micro Computer jumped more than 16% after disclosing over $60 billion in new fourth-quarter orders, including plans to build an AI data center with SpaceX. It also expects 2026 gross margins to double.
  • The debt question: Goldman Sachs flagged that roughly $489 billion of AI-related debt has been issued this year. Hyperscalers account for 40% of it — meaning much of the AI buildout is being financed rather than funded from cash flow.
  • Alphabet's fundraising: The company signaled a share-supply overhang from its fundraising plan, another factor pressuring the stock after hours.

The AI buildout is increasingly running on borrowed money. That's not a crisis, but it does change the risk. Debt-funded growth is far less forgiving than cash-funded growth if revenue arrives later than promised.

Retirement Lens

So what does this mean for someone holding stocks, bonds, and a little gold?

Mostly, it's a moment to appreciate what you already own rather than to change it. Two of the largest companies in the world reported strong results and fell anyway. If your stock exposure is broad, you felt that as a small dip. If you'd concentrated in a few AI names, this week has been considerably less pleasant.

The bigger picture for a retirement portfolio is next week's Fed meeting. It matters to your bonds, which have been squeezed by high yields all year, and to your gold, which has been capped by the same force. A patient Fed relieves pressure on both at once. That's worth understanding — not trading on, but understanding.

And there's genuine comfort in this week's numbers. Earnings are strong. Companies are growing. The market is simply being disciplined about what it will pay for growth, which is healthier than the alternative. Watch next Wednesday. Until then, let your allocation do its quiet work.

Recommended Reading

The Bull Investor is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice. I am not your financial advisor. Do your own research before making any decision.

— Anthony

Disclaimer: Immersed is offering securities through the use of an Offering Statement that has been qualified by the Securities and Exchange Commission under Tier II of Regulation A. The valuation is set by the Company and there is currently no public market for the Company's Common Stock. Please read the offering circular and related risks at invest.immersed.com. Nasdaq ticker “IMRS” has been reserved by Immersed and any potential listing is subject to future regulatory approval and market conditions.

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