🔹 Nvidia Delivered, but Inflation Stole the Show

Stocks set fresh records as Hegseth confirms the Iran ceasefire and oil retreats nearly 4%.

Today's Dispatch

› Nvidia crushed it — $96B in revenue, up 106%, and guided next quarter to $108B. Shares rose ~4%.

› But stocks slipped Wednesday as PCE inflation ran sticky at 3.7% — the Fed's problem persists.

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› Gold held near $4,620, shrugging off sticky inflation and a firmer dollar.

› Why Warsh's speech tomorrow now matters even more after a hot inflation reading.

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TL;DR

▲ Nvidia beat big and guided higher — shares rose ~4% after hours, lifting futures.

▼ Stocks slipped Wednesday as PCE inflation stayed sticky at 3.7% annual.

• Gold held near $4,620; all eyes now on Warsh at Jackson Hole tomorrow.

The most anticipated earnings report of the year delivered — and the market still couldn't rally. Nvidia reported after Wednesday's close with revenue of $96 billion, up an astonishing 106% from a year ago, and guided to $108 billion next quarter, well above expectations. Its shares jumped about 4% after hours. Yet the regular session ended slightly lower, because that morning's inflation data showed the Fed's preferred gauge still running hot at 3.7%. In my view, that's the story worth sitting with: even a blockbuster from the market's most important company couldn't overcome the stubborn fact of sticky inflation.

What Moved the Market

7,675.70

S&P 500

-0.02%

~26,130

Nasdaq

-0.08%

~53,460

Dow

-0.21%

~$4,620

Gold

held firm

+4%

Nvidia (AH)

beat & raise

Asset	Level	Change	Signal
Nvidia (after hours)	+~4%	beat & raise	$108B guide
Core PCE (annual)	3.3%	sticky	Above 2% goal
Gold (spot)	~$4,620	held near high	Off $4,697 peak
Meta	+1.07%	settlement	$16.7B deal

Nvidia's green after-hours pop against the red on inflation. Great earnings, but a sticky price problem.

Here's what drove it:

Nvidia beat on every line. Revenue hit $96.2 billion, up 106% year over year and above the roughly $92 billion consensus; earnings were $2.22 a share, more than double a year ago; and gross margin held at a rich 75%.
The guidance was the star. Management guided next quarter's revenue to about $108 billion, well above Wall Street's expectations, and CEO Jensen Huang declared "AI has reached its inflection point." Shares rose about 4% after hours.
But inflation stayed sticky. The July PCE price index — the Fed's preferred gauge — rose 0.2% monthly as expected, but the annual rate came in hot at 3.7% headline and 3.3% core, both well above the 2% goal.
Stocks slipped on the data. The S&P 500 finished essentially flat at 7,675.70, the Dow fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq eased 0.08%, as sticky inflation offset the pre-Nvidia optimism.
Meta bucked the trend, rising about 1% after agreeing to settle a social-media addiction case for roughly $16.7 billion, removing an overhang.
The focus now shifts to Friday, when Fed Chair Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote — a speech that matters more after a hot inflation print, with hike odds near 38%.

This was a day the market got exactly the earnings it wanted and still couldn't advance — because inflation reminded everyone the Fed's job isn't done. Nvidia's blowout keeps the AI story intact, but sticky prices keep a September rate hike on the table. That tension is why Warsh's tone tomorrow now carries real weight.

That combination — a strong economy running alongside stubborn inflation and record gold prices — is precisely the backdrop the week's second partner note speaks to. This one connects directly to today's theme: it's about gold-mining economics at today's elevated prices. It fits the issue, so I'll give it a straight introduction. As always, it's a partner's view — judge it for yourself.

Earnings

Nvidia was the headline, but the week has more to say about AI and the consumer.

Nvidia delivered the quarter of the season: $96.2 billion in revenue, up 106%, with a $108 billion forward guide that reassured investors the AI build-out is still accelerating.
CrowdStrike, Dell, and Marvell report this week, offering further reads on AI infrastructure and cybersecurity demand in Nvidia's wake.
Dick's Sporting Goods remains a cautionary tale from Tuesday, down 30% on weak guidance — proof that single-name risk is alive even in a steady market.
The broader season was strong, with the vast majority of S&P 500 companies beating estimates — the durable foundation under all the week's noise.

Nvidia's report was a genuine triumph, and yet the market barely moved — the clearest proof that no single company, however dominant, controls the whole market's direction. For a diversified holder, that's reassuring: your fortunes never rest on one earnings call, however loud.

Gold & Silver Moves

My corner, and gold is showing its poise. After touching a three-month high near $4,697 on Tuesday, bullion eased to about $4,620 on Wednesday, pressured by a firmer dollar and that sticky inflation reading. This morning it's steady near $4,615-4,640. Even with the pause, gold is up roughly 13% over the past month and about 36% from a year ago. Silver holds near $68.

Metal	Price (Thu Aug 27)	Note
Gold (spot)	~$4,620	Off Tue's $4,697 high; +13% on month
Silver (oz)	~$68	Holding after breakout
Gold/Silver Ratio	~68	Steady
Gold, 1-yr	+36%	Powerful trend intact

Gold holding above $4,600 despite a hot inflation print and firmer dollar — that resilience is the story.

Here's the read, and today it comes with a twist worth understanding. Gold pays you nothing, so its rival is what a bond yields after inflation. Normally, a hot inflation reading like Wednesday's — which pushed the dollar up and revived hike talk — would knock gold down hard. Yet gold barely flinched, holding above $4,600. Why? Because sticky inflation cuts both ways for gold: it raises the risk of higher rates, which hurts, but it also reminds everyone why they want an inflation hedge in the first place, which helps. The two forces largely cancel, and gold holds.

● MY TAKE

Watch what gold just did. Inflation ran hot, the dollar firmed, and rate-hike odds ticked up — a trio that should have sent bullion sliding. Instead it held above $4,600. That resilience tells you the debt-and-debasement story I've traced all month is now the dominant force, strong enough to absorb a bad inflation print without breaking. When an asset stops falling on news that "should" hurt it, that's not luck — it's a market repricing what that asset is worth. Gold near record highs, shrugging off sticky inflation, is telling you something. I'd listen.

The Deal Room

Nvidia's $108 billion guide

The AI leader's forecast for next quarter blew past expectations, and Huang's "I didn't invest more and sooner" line signaled conviction that the build-out has far to run — the AI trade's green light.

Earnings

Meta's $16.7 billion settlement

Meta agreed to settle a multi-state social-media addiction case, lifting its shares by removing a legal overhang — a reminder that resolving uncertainty can matter as much as earnings.

Legal

Warsh takes the stage Friday

After a hot PCE print, the Fed chair's first Jackson Hole keynote tomorrow becomes the week's decisive event, with markets hunting for clues on the September rate decision.

Fed

The through-line: a triumphant Nvidia, a sticky inflation print, and Warsh's speech tomorrow leave the market pulled between a booming AI story and an unfinished inflation fight — which is exactly why gold's steadiness stands out.

Retirement Lens

So what does this Nvidia-delivered, inflation-stung Thursday mean for someone holding stocks, bonds, and a little gold?

Mostly, it's a lesson in why you don't chase headlines. The biggest, most anticipated earnings report of the year came in beautifully — and the market barely moved, because a broader force, inflation, was pulling the other way. Imagine having repositioned your whole portfolio in anticipation of Nvidia's number. You'd have been right about the company and still gotten the market wrong. That's the trap a diversified, patient approach spares you.

The sticky inflation reading deserves calm attention. It keeps a September rate decision genuinely open and makes Warsh's speech tomorrow matter. But notice how your pieces responded: stocks steady, bonds absorbing the news, and gold holding firm above $4,600 even as inflation ran hot. Each did its job.

Understand it, don't trade it. Nvidia dazzled, inflation nagged, and Warsh looms — but a portfolio built for the long haul met a dramatic 24 hours with a shrug. That composure, not any single earnings call, is what carries you through.

The Bull Investor is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice. I am not your financial advisor. Do your own research before making any decision.

— Anthony

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