🔹 Records keep falling, but the spending question returns.

Stocks set fresh records as Hegseth confirms the Iran ceasefire and oil retreats nearly 4%.

🔹 Records keep falling, but the spending question returns.

Good afternoon,

Wall Street set fresh record highs again yesterday, with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all closing at or near records on a blowout quarter from Palantir and easing Middle East tensions. But after the bell, the summer's recurring question returned: SpaceX and AMD both beat expectations and both got sold, as investors balked at the sheer scale of their AI spending. In my view, this is the same story we've watched for weeks — the market loves AI's growth right up until it sees the bill. Today, though, my eye is on something quieter: silver, which just jumped more than 3%.

Inside Foxconn’s massive new facility in Houston, cameras captured NVIDIA’s CEO standing shoulder-to-shoulder with humanoid robots. Real machines — walking, turning, and working on the floor of what will become America’s first large-scale humanoid production line.

This isn’t decades away. Foxconn plans to begin production in 2026 — right here in the U.S. — rolling out two advanced models.

The real winners? Not the robot brands… but the 3 little-known companies supplying the hardware, chips, and systems for every AI humanoid built.

See Which 3 Stocks Power America’s AI Factory →


(Sponsored content)

What Moved the Market

Markets are open as I write this Wednesday morning. The levels below are Tuesday's August 4 close — the last confirmed session — with after-hours and today's events labeled separately.

Three record closes with oil at a three-week low. Cheap energy plus strong earnings is a powerful tailwind — for now.

Here's what's driving it:

  • Another record day. The Dow added roughly 900 points to close at 54,084.99, the S&P reached 7,736.52, and the Nasdaq jumped 2.59% to 26,584.99, its best close in weeks.
  • Palantir led the charge. Shares soared nearly 28% after what CEO Alex Karp called an "otherworldly" quarter, with the company raising its full-year outlook.
  • Caterpillar hit a milestone. The industrial bellwether topped $20 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time, buoyed by AI-infrastructure demand.
  • Oil kept falling. Crude dropped more than 5% to a three-week low as Qatar said an interim proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz had been prepared, with Treasury Secretary Bessent suggesting a deal could come within a day or two.
  • Rate-hike odds eased. Markets trimmed the probability of a September Fed hike to about 57%, down from 67% a day earlier, as cheaper oil calmed inflation fears.
  • The labor data begins. JOLTS showed job openings falling by 178,000, and today brings the ADP private payrolls report and ISM services — the run-up to Friday's jobs report.

The market is being lifted by two genuinely good forces — strong earnings and falling oil — and that's carried it to records. But the after-hours reaction to SpaceX and AMD is the reminder underneath: enthusiasm has limits, and those limits are drawn around AI spending. Enjoy the records, but keep that caveat in view.

Earnings

The AI spending debate defined another after-hours session.

  • Palantir was the day's star, surging around 28% on blockbuster results and raised guidance — proof that profitable AI software still commands enormous enthusiasm.
  • SpaceX, in its first report as a public company, topped revenue forecasts at $7.81 billion but fell 7% to 10% after hours as capital expenditures jumped sixfold to $18.4 billion, most of it on AI.
  • AMD beat Wall Street's estimates but slipped 7% to 8%, as adjusted earnings came in only slightly ahead — not enough for a stock priced for perfection.
  • The split was clear elsewhere too: Arista Networks rose 11% on a strong beat, while Pinterest fell 8% and Teradata dropped 17% on cautious guidance.

The pattern is now unmistakable. Companies proving AI translates into profit — Palantir, Arista — are rewarded; companies spending heavily without yet showing the payoff — SpaceX, AMD — are punished, even on a beat. The market has become a strict auditor of the AI build-out. That discipline is healthy, even when the after-hours moves look harsh.

Gold & Silver Moves

My corner, and this is the section I've been waiting to write. Gold is steady, climbing for a third straight day and holding above $4,100, near $4,096. But silver is the story: it surged more than 3% to around $61, its highest since July 10. That move compressed the gold/silver ratio toward the high-60s — and that compression is exactly the signal I keep flagging.

Silver outrunning gold and the ratio compressing. That's often the energetic phase of a metals move.

Here's the read. Gold pays you nothing, so its rival is what a bond yields after inflation — and right now that pressure is easing. Hopes for a Hormuz deal are pushing oil down, which cools inflation, which trimmed September hike odds from 67% to 57%. Lower rate expectations lift the whole complex.

But silver is telling the richer story. Silver is roughly half industrial metal, so it responds not just to fear but to the prospect of a functioning, growing economy — and it tends to lead gold when metals turn energetic. When the gold/silver ratio compresses, as it's doing now, it usually signals conviction in the move rather than mere caution. As one analyst noted, lower oil anchors inflation expectations, which "bodes well for non-yielding assets like silver." I've said for weeks to watch silver for the tell. This is the tell.

I'd add my usual restraint: one strong session is not a trend, and a Hormuz deal that isn't signed can still slip. But the structure beneath both metals — relentless central-bank buying, Chinese ETF inflows holding gold above $4,000, and silver's ongoing supply deficit — remains firmly intact.

Gold is grinding higher as rate fears ease, but silver's 3% jump is the more telling move. When silver leads and the ratio compresses, it often marks the livelier phase of a precious-metals advance. Worth watching closely — not chasing.

The Deal Room

  • IPO reality check: SpaceX's first quarter as a public company showed capital expenditures leaping sixfold to $18.4 billion, much of it flowing to its xAI artificial-intelligence effort — a vivid example of how much cash the AI race consumes.
  • Distress footnote: Fresh reporting on Situational Awareness, the AI-focused hedge fund that unwound last week, revealed Silicon Valley elites among its backers before its bets soured — a reminder that proximity to the AI boom didn't guarantee good returns.
  • Industrial strength: Caterpillar's record $20 billion quarter shows the AI build-out lifting old-economy names, not just chipmakers — the physical infrastructure of data centers has to come from somewhere.

The AI boom is minting winners well beyond the obvious tech names — industrials like Caterpillar are quietly benefiting. But SpaceX's spending and the hedge-fund blowup show the other edge: enormous capital is at risk, and being near AI is not the same as profiting from it.

Retirement Lens

So what does this record-setting Wednesday mean for someone holding stocks, bonds, and a little gold?

Mostly, it's a moment to enjoy the good news without leaning into it. Your stock holdings just reached records. Your metals are firm, with silver notably strong. Your bonds have steadied as rate-hike fears eased with oil. Every part of a balanced portfolio is working at once — which is pleasant, and also precisely the moment to resist the urge to tinker.

The quiet caution I'd offer is the same one the market itself is whispering: fewer stocks are participating in these record closes, and the after-hours punishment of SpaceX and AMD shows enthusiasm has boundaries. None of that is a reason to sell. It's a reason not to chase.

The week still builds toward Friday's jobs report, which will shape the September rate debate. As ever, that's a number to interpret calmly, not to trade ahead of. Read the data as it lands. Let your allocation carry you.

Recommended Reading

The Bull Investor is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice. I am not your financial advisor. Do your own research before making any decision.

— Anthony

Read more