🔹 The Fed held rates but rattled the market anyway

Stocks set fresh records as Hegseth confirms the Iran ceasefire and oil retreats nearly 4%.

🔹 The Fed held rates but rattled the market anyway

Good afternoon,

The Fed did exactly what everyone expected yesterday — it held rates steady — and the market suffered its worst day since April of last year anyway. The Dow fell more than 1,150 points. The reason wasn't the decision; it was Chairman Warsh's tone. He told reporters there is "no soft inflation target" and that the Fed "will not hesitate" to act. In my view, the market had been quietly hoping for a dovish signal, and Warsh delivered the opposite. That gap between hope and reality is what you saw on the screen.

⚠ URGENT: ROUND CLOSING SOON · $0.79/SHARE ⚠

Most startups do one thing well. Immersed just dominated three multi-billion-dollar industries at once.

If you want to find the next major tech breakout, you don't look for a company building a feature. You look for a company building an ecosystem.

Immersed isn't just riding the Spatial Computing wave. They are directing it. With over $36M raised and a valuation growth of 4,000%, they have created a "Triple Threat" ecosystem that is completely rewriting how humans interact with technology.

Here is what you are getting access to at just $0.79 per share:

  • THE SOFTWARE: The #1 productivity app on Meta Quest. 1.5M+ people using it 40-60 hours a week to replace their physical monitors.
  • THE HARDWARE: Visor. A headset built strictly for work. Lighter, faster, and $2,500 less expensive than Apple Vision Pro. It already has a waitlist of 75,000+ before the first shipment.
  • THE AI: Curator. A native AI agent in early access beta that sees your workflow, summarizes meetings, and organizes your life in real-time.

This window is closing rapidly. 9,500+ investors have already secured their positions.

Current Regulation A+ offering ends TODAY


(Sponsored content)

What Moved the Market

Markets are open as I write, with major data landing at 8:30. The levels below are Wednesday's July 29 close — the last confirmed session — with this morning's moves labeled separately.

A 1,150-point Dow drop on a day the Fed did nothing. The words, not the decision, moved the market. Source: CNBC, Investing.com, CryptoBriefing (Jul 29 close; Thu futures).

Here's what happened:

  • The Fed held, Warsh was hawkish. Rates stayed at 3.50%–3.75% for a fifth straight meeting. But Warsh insisted "there is no soft inflation target" and that the Fed "will not hesitate" — dashing hopes for a dovish pivot.
  • Stocks plunged. The Dow's 2.19% drop was its worst since April 2025. The Nasdaq closed more than 10% below its intraday record — the technical definition of a correction.
  • The President pushed back. Trump said Warsh "would love to see lower interest rates, but he's got a board… and they want to keep rates up," while vowing to "fight through rates."
  • Oil rose again. Crude climbed on renewed U.S.-Iran strikes, adding to the inflation worry Warsh was addressing.
  • Futures are recovering this morning. Dow futures rose 158 points and Nasdaq futures gained 0.6% as investors digested strong Microsoft earnings.
  • The big data lands at 8:30. Second-quarter GDP and the core PCE inflation gauge — the Fed's preferred measure — release this morning.

The market wasn't reacting to what the Fed did; it was reacting to what Warsh said. He made clear he won't be pressured — not by the President, not by the markets — into easing before inflation is beaten. That's a more hawkish Fed than Wall Street wanted, and repricing that took a painful day.

Earnings

The megacap reports are landing, and they're splitting sharply along one line: who's spending wisely.

  • Microsoft beat handily, with fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $90.01 billion topping the $87.62 billion consensus and rising about 18% year over year, powered by strong Azure cloud growth. The market rewarded it.
  • Meta told a harder story. Revenue rose 28% to $60.80 billion, but net income fell 14% to $15.85 billion, and operating margin collapsed to 31% from 43% as AI spending surged. It raised the low end of its capital-expenditure range to $130 billion and sold off after hours.
  • Apple and Amazon report after today's close — the final two megacaps, with Amazon's AWS cloud growth and spending in focus.

Same AI arms race, two very different bills. Microsoft showed spending translating into cloud revenue and got rewarded; Meta showed spending crushing margins and got punished. The market is now ruthlessly sorting the disciplined spenders from the rest — exactly the discipline that was missing a year ago.

Gold & Silver Moves

My corner, and gold is behaving exactly as its mechanism predicts after a hawkish Fed. It's holding an offered tone near $4,090, unable to reclaim $4,100 after Warsh's remarks sent the dollar higher and revived rate-hike worries. Silver sits around $58, having risen about 2% Tuesday before easing. The gold/silver ratio holds near 70.

Gold holding $4,090 through a hawkish Fed and a stock rout. The floor is being defended again. Source: FXStreet, Trading Economics, FXLeaders (Jul 29–30).

Here's the read, and today is the day it matters most. Gold pays nothing to hold, so its rival is what a bond yields after inflation. Warsh's hawkish message lifted the dollar and firmed rate expectations — a clear headwind, which is why gold couldn't hold $4,100. That's the mechanism, working exactly as it has all month.

But the pivotal number arrives at 8:30 this morning: core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, alongside Q2 GDP. I've been pointing to this print for a week, because it does what the Fed decision couldn't — it actually moves the metal. A cool reading eases the pressure Warsh just applied and gives both metals room; a hot one confirms his hawkishness and extends the squeeze.

Underneath, the structural bid remains striking. Chinese gold imports jumped to about 173 tonnes in June, the strongest monthly inflow since March 2024. And notice silver: up 57% from a year ago despite this month's pullback, with a sixth straight annual supply deficit projected. Commerzbank still sees silver reaching $67. The tape is noisy; the foundation isn't.

Gold held its floor through a hawkish Fed and a market rout — that's insurance doing its job. But watch 8:30 this morning. The inflation number, not yesterday's decision, is what sets the metals' direction from here.

The Deal Room

  • Correction territory: The Nasdaq Composite closed more than 10% below its intraday record, its first correction of this cycle — driven by AI-spending fears rather than any economic breakdown.
  • The capex divide: Meta lifted the floor of its 2026 capital-spending range to $130 billion; Microsoft's spending, by contrast, came paired with cloud revenue strong enough to satisfy investors. The market is pricing that difference sharply.
  • Still ahead today: Apple and Amazon report after the close, plus Mastercard, Shell, and Bristol-Myers Squibb — a heavy slate into an already jittery tape.

A Nasdaq correction sounds alarming, but its cause matters: this is investors demanding discipline on AI spending, not an economy cracking. That's a healthier kind of pullback — and one a diversified portfolio weathers far better than a concentrated tech bet.

Retirement Lens

So what does this turbulent Thursday mean for someone holding stocks, bonds, and a little gold?

Mostly, it's a moment to keep perspective. Yesterday was ugly — the worst day in over a year — but look at what caused it: a hawkish tone from a new Fed chair, not a recession, not a credit event, not an earnings collapse. Microsoft, in fact, just posted excellent results. The economy underneath is still functioning.

For your portfolio, the shape of the day is instructive. Tech led the decline; the Nasdaq is in correction. But a diversified retiree, holding bonds and gold alongside stocks, felt a far gentler version than someone concentrated in AI names. Gold held $4,090 through the whole thing. Your bonds, paying the most income in nearly two decades, are steady.

The one thing worth watching is this morning's inflation number, because it will shape whether Warsh's hawkishness eases or hardens. But watching is not the same as acting. Read it, understand it, and let your allocation do the work it was built for.

Recommended Reading

The Bull Investor is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice. I am not your financial advisor. Do your own research before making any decision.

— Anthony

Disclaimer: Immersed is offering securities through the use of an Offering Statement that has been qualified by the Securities and Exchange Commission under Tier II of Regulation A. The valuation is set by the Company and there is currently no public market for the Company's Common Stock. Please read the offering circular and related risks at invest.immersed.com. Nasdaq ticker “IMRS” has been reserved by Immersed and any potential listing is subject to future regulatory approval and market conditions.

Read more