🔹 Three days red, and gold won't quit.
Stocks set fresh records as Hegseth confirms the Iran ceasefire and oil retreats nearly 4%.
Today's Dispatch
› Three straight red sessions as oil and yields squeeze the Nasdaq
› Gold climbs a third day and defends $4,400 as Fed-hike bets fade
› The 30-year Treasury yield hits 5.32% — its highest since 2007
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› Retail earnings week kicks off: Home Depot today, Walmart Thursday
› Fed minutes Wednesday and Jackson Hole Friday set the week's tone

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TL;DR · 30 seconds
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Three straight sessions in the red, and the reason is stacking up in plain sight: oil pushing toward multi-week highs and long-dated Treasury yields climbing to levels not seen since 2007. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is leading the drop again. But underneath the selling, gold has now risen for a third straight session and is holding firmly above $4,400 — and in my view, that divergence is the signal worth reading this morning, not the headline losses. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What Moved the Market | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The levels below reflect Monday's August 17 close — the last confirmed session — with Tuesday's intraday moves labeled separately. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Three indexes lower for a third day, while gold quietly climbs against the tide. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Here's what's driving it: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Monday showed the pattern of the month — old-economy strength, tech weakness. Tuesday is extending it. Until oil and yields settle, every rally in growth names faces the same two headwinds. |
Earnings | |||
The retail wave begins today and runs all week. | |||
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Four of the country's biggest retailers report in three days, straight into the Fed minutes. Expect sharp moves in individual names — but for a diversified portfolio, a swing in any one of them is a ripple, not a wave. | |||
Gold & Silver Moves | |||
My corner, and gold is doing the more interesting thing this morning. Spot gold held above $4,400, trading near $4,429 after a third consecutive session of gains. Silver eased slightly to around $65.12, down a fraction after its own strong run. The gold/silver ratio sits near 68. | |||
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Gold up a third straight day even as the dollar holds firm and yields climb — the floor keeps getting defended. | |||
● MY TAKE Gold broke higher not because the war headlines got scarier, but because the bet on a Fed hike evaporated. A week ago the market priced roughly a one-in-three chance of a September increase — after a run of soft data, expectations have shifted to a hold. That’s the real catalyst here, not the Strait of Hormuz. | |||
Here's the timing that matters. Gold pays nothing, so its rival is what a bond yields after inflation. With the 30-year at a 2007 high, that pressure should be capping gold — and yet it's climbing. That tells you the rate-expectation shift is outweighing the yield backdrop. The next real catalysts are Wednesday's Fed minutes and Chair Warsh's tone at Jackson Hole on Friday. Underneath it all, central-bank buying and a structural silver deficit remain the story that actually lasts. | |||
The Deal Room | |||
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The week's setup is unusually loaded — retail earnings, Fed minutes, and Jackson Hole all landing inside five days, with oil as the wildcard underneath. Any one could move the tape; together they'll set the tone into late summer. |
Retirement Lens | |||
So what does a third red day mean for someone holding stocks, bonds, and a little gold? | |||
Mostly, it's a reminder of why the mix exists. Tech is under pressure from yields, and your growth funds feel it. But your bonds are now paying the most income in nearly two decades, and your gold just climbed for a third straight day against that same backdrop. Those pieces are pulling in different directions on purpose — that's the design working, not luck. | |||
The genuinely useful signal this week isn't today's Home Depot print; it's Wednesday's Fed minutes and Friday's Jackson Hole. If Warsh reads as patient and the September-hike odds keep falling, expect relief across stocks, bonds, and gold alike. If the minutes reveal a committee leaning hawkish, expect more of the same yield-driven churn. Nobody knows which — so the right posture is the one I keep coming back to: understand it, don't trade it. | |||
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The Bull Investor is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice. I am not your financial advisor. Do your own research before making any decision.
— Anthony
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