🔹 Three days red, and gold won't quit.

Stocks set fresh records as Hegseth confirms the Iran ceasefire and oil retreats nearly 4%.

🔹 Three days red, and gold won't quit.

Today's Dispatch

› Three straight red sessions as oil and yields squeeze the Nasdaq

› Gold climbs a third day and defends $4,400 as Fed-hike bets fade

› The 30-year Treasury yield hits 5.32% — its highest since 2007

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› Retail earnings week kicks off: Home Depot today, Walmart Thursday

› Fed minutes Wednesday and Jackson Hole Friday set the week's tone

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TL;DR · 30 seconds
  Three straight red sessions — oil and yields are squeezing tech
  Gold climbs a third day and holds $4,400 as September hike bets fade
  Retail week: Home Depot today, Fed minutes Wednesday, Jackson Hole Friday

Three straight sessions in the red, and the reason is stacking up in plain sight: oil pushing toward multi-week highs and long-dated Treasury yields climbing to levels not seen since 2007. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is leading the drop again. But underneath the selling, gold has now risen for a third straight session and is holding firmly above $4,400 — and in my view, that divergence is the signal worth reading this morning, not the headline losses.

What Moved the Market

7,745
S&P 500
−0.52%
26,645
Nasdaq
−0.32%
$4,429
Gold
+0.30%
$65.12
Silver
−0.55%
$91
Brent
2-wk high

The levels below reflect Monday's August 17 close — the last confirmed session — with Tuesday's intraday moves labeled separately.

AssetLevelChangeSignal
S&P 5007,745.06−0.52%Cautious
Nasdaq26,644.91−0.32%Tech under pressure
Dow Jones53,459.78−0.51%Blue-chip weakness
Gold (spot)~$4,429+0.30%Holding $4,400
Silver (oz)~$65.12−0.55%Pausing after rally
Brent Crude~$912-wk highRisk (Hormuz)
30-yr Treasury5.32%2007 highWeighs on growth

Three indexes lower for a third day, while gold quietly climbs against the tide.

Here's what's driving it:

  • Yields are the pressure point. The 30-year Treasury yield pushed to 5.32%, its highest since 2007, as an AI-driven borrowing spree, rising oil, and worries over government debt lifted long-dated yields globally. High yields hit growth stocks hardest — which is why the Nasdaq is leading the decline.

  • Oil won't settle. WTI topped $84 and Brent neared $91, the highest in over two weeks, after President Trump rejected extending the Iran ceasefire and threatened further economic pressure. The Strait of Hormuz remains a live flashpoint, and the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to its lowest since 1982.

  • A quieter week for data means retail steals the show. Home Depot reports this morning, kicking off a stretch that will define how the American consumer is holding up.

  • The Fed is the other half of the story. Traders have trimmed the odds of a September rate hike to less than one in three ahead of Jackson Hole.

Monday showed the pattern of the month — old-economy strength, tech weakness. Tuesday is extending it. Until oil and yields settle, every rally in growth names faces the same two headwinds.

Earnings

The retail wave begins today and runs all week.

  • Home Depot reports this morning before the open, with a 9:00 a.m. ET call — the first hard read on housing-linked spending since July's sharp retail-sales drop.

  • Target and Lowe's follow Wednesday, completing a home-improvement and general-retail picture.

  • Walmart lands Thursday, the single most comprehensive look at the American shopper this season.

  • Also worth watching: Analog Devices Wednesday, for a read on whether the industrial and automotive chip cycle keeps recovering alongside AI demand.

Four of the country's biggest retailers report in three days, straight into the Fed minutes. Expect sharp moves in individual names — but for a diversified portfolio, a swing in any one of them is a ripple, not a wave.

Gold & Silver Moves

My corner, and gold is doing the more interesting thing this morning. Spot gold held above $4,400, trading near $4,429 after a third consecutive session of gains. Silver eased slightly to around $65.12, down a fraction after its own strong run. The gold/silver ratio sits near 68.

Gold up a third straight day even as the dollar holds firm and yields climb — the floor keeps getting defended.

●  MY TAKE
Gold broke higher not because the war headlines got scarier, but because the bet on a Fed hike evaporated. A week ago the market priced roughly a one-in-three chance of a September increase — after a run of soft data, expectations have shifted to a hold. That’s the real catalyst here, not the Strait of Hormuz.

Here's the timing that matters. Gold pays nothing, so its rival is what a bond yields after inflation. With the 30-year at a 2007 high, that pressure should be capping gold — and yet it's climbing. That tells you the rate-expectation shift is outweighing the yield backdrop. The next real catalysts are Wednesday's Fed minutes and Chair Warsh's tone at Jackson Hole on Friday. Underneath it all, central-bank buying and a structural silver deficit remain the story that actually lasts.

The Deal Room

Big-box retail takes the stage
Home Depot reports before the open today; Target and Lowe’s Wednesday; Walmart Thursday. The most complete read on consumer spending this season.
Retail · consumer
 
Fed minutes — a split committee
The July 28–29 minutes land Wednesday. Three hawkish dissents against the hold — a divide the market hasn’t fully priced in yet.
Fed policy
 
Oil and the Strait of Hormuz
WTI above $84, Brent near $91 — a two-week high. Trump declined to extend the Iran ceasefire; the SPR sits at its lowest since 1982.
Energy · geopolitics

The week's setup is unusually loaded — retail earnings, Fed minutes, and Jackson Hole all landing inside five days, with oil as the wildcard underneath. Any one could move the tape; together they'll set the tone into late summer.

Retirement Lens

So what does a third red day mean for someone holding stocks, bonds, and a little gold?

Mostly, it's a reminder of why the mix exists. Tech is under pressure from yields, and your growth funds feel it. But your bonds are now paying the most income in nearly two decades, and your gold just climbed for a third straight day against that same backdrop. Those pieces are pulling in different directions on purpose — that's the design working, not luck.

The genuinely useful signal this week isn't today's Home Depot print; it's Wednesday's Fed minutes and Friday's Jackson Hole. If Warsh reads as patient and the September-hike odds keep falling, expect relief across stocks, bonds, and gold alike. If the minutes reveal a committee leaning hawkish, expect more of the same yield-driven churn. Nobody knows which — so the right posture is the one I keep coming back to: understand it, don't trade it.

The Bull Investor is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice. I am not your financial advisor. Do your own research before making any decision.

— Anthony


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