🔹 Calm Tape, Loud Weekend

Good afternoon,

April closed with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both at fresh highs, capping their best month since 2020. The weekend then delivered a hostile $56 billion bid from GameStop for eBay, the shutdown of Spirit Airlines, and a Fed governor's warning on private credit. Apple's guide reset expectations for the AI hardware cycle, while gold and silver drifted as the dollar slipped on Tokyo's quiet intervention.

For readers focused on stability and income, the picture remains workable: positive growth, sticky inflation, and a market leaning hard on AI.

The Pulse

The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.39% and the 2-year at 3.88%. WTI dropped 3% to $101.94 after Iran sent a revised peace proposal through Pakistani mediators.

Speaking of AI, an analyst with a strong track record on this theme is making the case that the next leg of the cycle won't look like the last one.

Markets

• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched their strongest month since 2020 while the Dow lagged.
• Software rallied: Five9 jumped about 30% on earnings, with Atlassian and Twilio following.
• Oil eased on Iran's updated proposal, though the US naval blockade stays in place.
• The yen rallied a second day on suspected Japanese intervention after touching 160.72, a two-year low.

Leadership is narrowing. AI-led tech and resilient margins are carrying the indexes, while energy beat estimates but traded muted. Concentration of this kind tends to reward patience over portfolio reshuffling.

Earnings

• Apple set the tone. Q2 revenue of $111.18 billion and EPS of $2.01 both beat estimates, and management guided June-quarter growth of 14% to 17% against a Street estimate near 9.5%. Shares rose more than 3%. The board added $100 billion to buybacks and lifted the dividend by 4%.
• Exxon's adjusted EPS of $1.16 beat $1.00; Chevron's $1.41 cleared $0.95, its widest beat since 2020. Net profit still fell 45% and 36% respectively on Iran-related disruptions.
• Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon together pushed projected 2026 hyperscaler AI capex toward $725 billion, up from earlier estimates near $670 billion.

Why it matters: the AI cycle has not yet hit saturation, which keeps the index earnings ballast intact for diversified portfolios.

This week's lineup:

• Today: Palantir
• Tuesday: AMD, PayPal, Shopify, KKR, Pfizer
• Wednesday: Walt Disney, Uber, Kraft Heinz
• Thursday: McDonald's, Coinbase

Gold & Silver Moves

Gold settled near $4,644.50 an ounce Friday, up about 0.3% on the day and roughly 2% on the week's rebound. The metal sits about 15% below its wartime peak, but the pullback masks something important: official-sector buying has not stopped.

The dollar's slide to a two-month low after suspected Japanese intervention helped late last week. The deeper bid, however, comes from central banks. World Gold Council data show net Q1 buying of 244 tonnes, the strongest first quarter on record. Poland led with 31 tonnes, Uzbekistan added 25, and the People's Bank of China another 7. That is a steady, price-insensitive buyer behind a market where retail and ETF flows have been more cautious.

Silver closed near $74.86, building on Thursday's bounce. The metal is down roughly 18% from its early-year highs, with industrial demand from solar and AI infrastructure offering support. Silver tends to outrun gold when the dollar weakens and to sell off harder when risk sentiment cools. Last week showed both behaviors inside five sessions.

The Gold / Silver ratio sits at 62.04. That is well below the long-run norm of 80 to 90 and far from the 100-plus extremes seen in 2020 and early 2024. Recent movement has been modest, with both metals correcting from war-era peaks together.

History adds context. Readings in the low 60s typically appear after silver has caught up to gold during inflation episodes, often near the late stages of a metals rally. The current level reflects silver's run through 2025 on solar and electronics demand rather than a downward pull from gold. On relative valuation, silver looks fully priced versus gold, not cheap. On risk sentiment, the compressed ratio implies markets are still pricing industrial growth alongside monetary hedging, not crisis. On inflation expectations, silver's industrial sensitivity means a cooling in AI capex or solar demand could widen the ratio quickly. Central banks, by contrast, only buy gold.

Both metals remain credible inflation hedges, but gold continues to do most of the purchasing-power preservation work that retirement portfolios rely on.

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

• GameStop launched an unsolicited $56 billion bid for eBay at $125 per share, a 20% premium, backed by a $20 billion TD Bank debt commitment. CEO Ryan Cohen has signaled willingness to go hostile.
• Meta acquired humanoid-robotics startup Assured Robot Intelligence for an undisclosed sum, folding the team into Superintelligence Labs.
• Sun Pharma agreed to buy New Jersey's Organon for $11.75 billion enterprise value, the largest overseas pharma deal by an Indian company.

IPOs / Listings

• Cerebras is targeting up to $4 billion at roughly a $40 billion valuation, with banks reporting more than $10 billion in indications of interest.
• Bill Ackman's Pershing Square raised $5 billion; after Wednesday's 18% drop in the closed-end fund, free shares in the management company left buyers near flat by week's end.

Bankruptcy / Distress

• Spirit Airlines ceased operations Saturday after $500 million in bailout talks collapsed, the first major US airline shutdown in 25 years.

Retirement Lens

The setup for stability-minded investors is steadier than the headlines suggest. Inflation is sticky but not accelerating. Growth is positive, if increasingly concentrated in AI spending. Yields above 4% on the 10-year still offer a credible income anchor for anyone rebalancing into bonds.

The familiar risks are worth tracking: oil's path through Hormuz, the Fed's reluctance to cut while energy is firm, and the credit-market plumbing the Fed itself is now flagging. None is acute, but each shapes the durability of an income plan over the next several years. Gold and silver continue to act as ballast against that uncertainty; the ratio simply tells us where to lean.

One last item worth flagging before you close the issue, on a quieter risk to the income side of a retirement plan.

Headline Hunt

• March core PCE rose 3.2% year over year, headline 3.5%, both in line.
• Q1 GDP grew at a 2% annualized pace, with AI investment offsetting softer consumer spending.
• Initial jobless claims fell to 189,000, the lowest weekly print since 1969.
• Fed Governor Michael Barr warned private credit stress could spread through insurer overlap with private lenders.
• Greg Abel chaired his first Berkshire annual meeting and ruled out a break-up; the cash pile sits near $397 billion.
• Roblox cut full-year bookings guidance, sending shares roughly 24% lower in premarket trade.