BOOM TIMES, PINK SLIPS

BOOM TIMES, PINK SLIPS

Good afternoon,

It’s a strange time on the Street. On one hand, you’ve got unbridled optimism: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are crushing earnings, deal pipelines are filling up, and LPs are pouring cash into multi-strat hedge funds. The machinery is humming.

But look under the hood, and it’s ruthless efficiency. Wall Street banks quietly eliminated over 10,000 jobs last year — the highest number since 2016. The message is clear: generate record profits, but do it leaner.

Getting started.

The Pulse

As of 1/15/2026 market close.
As of 1/15/2026 market close.

Markets

  • The Russell 2000 is having a real moment, beating the S&P for a tenth straight day. That's its best relative win streak since 1990.
  • Europe's Stoxx 600 hit a fresh all-time high.
  • The UK's FTSE 100 hit a fresh all-time high.
  • Canada's TSX index hit a fresh all-time high.
  • The Dollar muscled up to a six-week high.

Earnings

  • BlackRock crushed Q4 estimates as record ETF inflows and $13B in private market cash pushed assets under management past the staggering $14T mark. (WSJ)
  • This week's lineup:
    • Today: State Street, PNC
  • See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

Headline Hunt

  • Trump reportedly has no plans to fire J Pow despite the ongoing investigation. (RT)
  • Taiwan is set to invest $250B in the US as part of a new trade agreement. (CNBC)
  • Wall Street banks cut over 10,000 jobs last year, the most significant shedding since 2016. (BBG)
  • Private credit firms are loosening safeguards just to win deals on the Street. (BBG)
  • Bank CEOs are claiming their record $130B trading haul is just the beginning. (BBG)
  • UBS is inching closer to securing a US national bank charter. (RT)
  • Hedge funds are hiring talent scouts in Japan to capitalize on the market comeback. (BBG)
  • New loans in China have shrunk to their lowest level since 2018 as demand weakens. (BBG)
  • European earnings are shaping up to be the worst in two years. (RT)
  • Goldman is sniffing around for opportunities in prediction markets. (BBG)
  • A massive 75% of Jain Global's 2025 trading profits were eaten up by fees. (RT)
  • White-collar enforcement has reportedly tanked under Trump. (BBG)

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

  • Keurig Dr Pepper has launched an $18B all-cash takeover bid for the coffee group JDE Peet's.
  • Boston Scientific agreed to acquire medical device maker Penumbra in a cash-and-stock deal worth $14B.
  • Affinity Partners (Jared Kushner’s PE firm) is backing a merger between ClassPress and EGYM with a $785M investment, valuing the new entity at $7.5B.
  • Mitsubishi Electric is taking bids for its automotive equipment business, which could fetch between $1.3B and $1.9B.

Venture Flow

  • Replit, the AI coding startup, is talking about a $400M round at a $9B valuation led by Georgian.
  • Tensor, a self-driving car startup, is in talks to raise between $300M and $400M ahead of a potential IPO.
  • Merge Labs, Sam Altman’s answer to Neuralink, raised a $250M seed round at an $850M valuation led by Bain Capital and OpenAI.
  • Tulip Interfaces, a frontline operations software firm, raised a $120M Series D at a $1.3B valuation from Mitsubishi Electric.
  • Mytra, a supply-chain automation startup, grabbed a $120M Series C led by Avenir Growth.
  • Higgsfield, an AI video generation startup, raised an $80M Series A extension at a $1.3B valuation from Accel, GFT Ventures, and Menlo Ventures.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Hong Kong’s CK Hutchison is looking to raise $2B at a $30B valuation in an IPO of its retail unit A.S. Watson Group.

The Debt Desk

  • Goldman Sachs raised $16B in the largest investment-grade bond sale ever by a Wall Street bank.
  • Wells Fargo also raised $8B in an investment-grade bond sale.

SPAC Deals

  • Lebanon's $30B defaulted dollar bonds jumped from 23¢ to 30¢ on bets that geopolitical shifts might reduce Islamic influence in the region.
  • Lenders led by BMO are trying to block Ssense's founders from buying the luxury retailer out of bankruptcy, arguing a liquidation would pay out more.
  • Petrofac, the UK oilfield services firm, is asking creditors for concessions to allow the sale of its asset solutions business.

Distress Signals

  • BlackRock's Global Infrastructure Partners raised $12.5B for a massive data center and energy fund in partnership with Microsoft, Nvidia, xAI, and MGX.
  • Spain is set to launch a $12B sovereign wealth fund.
  • H.I.G. Capital raised $1.9B for its fourth European lower-middle-market PE fund.
  • New Mountain Capital raised $1.2B for its second growth fund.

Crypto Corner

  • The Senate delayed a major crypto bill after the Coinbase CEO lobbied against it.
  • The NYT tracked down some early meme stock investors to see where they are now. Turns out, they are all grown up.

Today’s Meme Pick

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