ELON'S STAR CHARTS & THE S&P 7000

The market has officially entered the Twilight Zone.

Good afternoon,

The market has officially entered the Twilight Zone. South Korea’s stock market is now worth more than Germany’s, mining stocks have magically added $500B since New Year’s, and Elon Musk is reportedly consulting astrological charts to time the SpaceX IPO. Because why rely on EBITDA when you have Gemini rising?

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 just shattered the 7,000 ceiling for the first time in history. Investors seem to have forgotten the word "risk" as Meta gets the green light for massive AI spending and the Fed keeps us guessing.

Getting started.

The Pulse

Markets

US stocks finished mixed as the street digested Big Tech numbers and the Fed's latest move.
- S&P 500 crossed 7,000 for the first time ever.
Oil hit a four-month high after Trump pushed Iran to the negotiating table.
Gold had its best session in six months, continuing a historic run.
- Silver also hit a new all-time high.
The Dollar rose 0.4% (best day since November) thanks to hawkish talk from Bessent.

Earnings

Microsoft beat on the top and bottom lines, but operating margins look soft. Cloud growth is slowing, and CapEx has climbed to $37.5B. (CNBC)
AT&T posted a solid quarter driven by wireless and broadband strength. (BBG)
Meta absolutely crushed Q4 estimates. Management issued upbeat guidance but warned that 2026 CapEx will spike to $115B-$135B to feed the AI beast. (BBG)
Tesla beat estimates but posted its first-ever full-year revenue decline. Competition is heating up, and Musk’s political commentary isn’t helping sales. (CNBC)
This week's lineup:
- Today: Apple, Visa, L3 Harris, Southwest Airlines.
- Friday: American Express, Verizon, ExxonMobil.
See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

The hardest question. (Polymarket)

Headline Hunt

The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% citing an improving economy. (CNBC)
Mamdani is pushing for tax hikes on the wealthy to plug NYC’s $12B deficit. (CNBC)
Rising stock prices are boosting pension funds, but private market risks are looming. (BBG)
Blackstone’s flagship hedge fund platform returned 12% last year. (RT)
Wells Fargo has cut ties with its proxy advisor. (WSJ)
JPMorgan and BofA agreed to match US government contributions to Trump Accounts. (RT)
South Korea’s market cap has officially surpassed Germany’s. (BBG)
The Bank of Canada kept rates flat at 2.25%. (RT)
Buyers are chasing hybrid bonds despite record low spreads. (BBG)
Demand for longer-dated municipal bonds is ticking up as yields remain elevated. (BBG)
Australian bond sales hit a record high as investors pivot away from the dollar. (BBG)
Venezuela’s bond rally is facing a $170B reality check. (BBG)
Secondaries are becoming a critical tool for evergreen funds as inflows rise. (SI)
US upstream M&A rebounded to $24B in Q4. (RT)
German authorities raided Deutsche Bank in a money laundering investigation. (WSJ)
Leveraged companies are rushing to issue risky loans to meet investor demand. (BBG)
KPMG partners in the UK are now paid more than their peers at EY and PwC for the first time in ten years. (FT)

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

Elliott is weighing a tender offer for Toyota Industries (valued at $37B), complicating Toyota’s own $35B+ take-private bid which the activist fund deems too low.
Stonepeak is teaming up with CMA CGM to form a US ports joint venture valued at $10B.
Alkami ($2.2B listed value) is exploring a sale after feeling heat from activist fund Jana.
Prosperity Bancshares is acquiring Stellar Bancorp in a cash-and-stock deal worth $2B.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

An undisclosed firm is working with Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan on an IPO targeting a $12B valuation (raising over $1B).
Forgent Power Solutions, backed by Neos Partners, filed for an IPO seeking an $8.8B valuation (raising up to $480M).
RAC, the UK insurance firm backed by Silver Lake, CVC, and GIC, is eyeing a London IPO at a ~$7B valuation.
Eikon Therapeutics is chasing a $910M valuation in its IPO, aiming to raise $318M.
York Space Systems raised $630M in its IPO, securing a $4.3B valuation.
Veradermics is seeking a $535M valuation in its IPO to raise $214M.

The Debt Desk

Blackstone is looking to double down on Oracle’s $14B data center project in Michigan, even as other investors hesitate.
Athene (an Apollo unit) bought a $9B commercial real estate loan portfolio from Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance.
Angola is testing the waters for a $1.7B international bond issuance.

Distress Signals

FAT Brands creditors are accusing the CEO of looting $200M for jets and jewelry before the company went bust (total debt stack: $1.2B).
Annington, a UK real estate firm backed by Terra Firma, is fighting creditors like Centerbridge and DE Shaw over a potential default on $1B of debt.
Rinchem has asked lenders to extend maturities and take haircuts on $300M of debt to fund its Dupré Logistics deal.
Pretium Packaging filed for bankruptcy after agreeing on a restructuring plan with lenders.

Fresh Capital

Sony Music and GIC are launching a joint venture to buy music copyrights, targeting $2B-$3B in deals.
Equality Asset Management closed $575M for its second fund focused on software and tech services.
New Catalyst Strategic Partners raised $250M for its debut fund of funds.

Crypto Corner

Bitcoin loyalists are starting to rotate into stocks and gold.
The White House is set to meet with banks and crypto leaders to hash out legislation.
Tether is disrupting the gold market by hoarding massive amounts of metal.

Today’s Meme Pick

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