FED CHAIR FINAL SELECTION DAY

Good morning,

SpaceX is eyeing the history books with a potential $1.5T valuation IPO, while Balyasny flags AI as a major risk for 2026. Bankers are swamped with IPO prep, and Goldman says the private equity engine is roaring back. Meanwhile, the race for the next Fed Chair is heating up with Trump and Bessent narrowing the field.

Getting started.

The Pulse

Markets

US stocks were a mixed bag yesterday as everyone holds their breath for the Fed decision.
Silver just broke $60 for the first time, driven by a global supply squeeze.

Earnings

GameStop beat earnings estimates but revenue is light. Hardware and software sales are down, though the balance sheet looks better thanks to a big Bitcoin stake ( RT ).
Cracker Barrel beat on revenue but missed earnings. They’re pausing their rebranding efforts and cutting back spending as customers pull back ( BI ).
Campbell's missed revenue targets. Tariffs are pushing prices up, and they're struggling to find the sweet spot between pricing and value during soup season ( WSJ ).
Dave & Buster's posted a bigger loss than expected, though they claim the turnaround plan is starting to show results month-over-month ( WSJ ).
This week's lineup:
- Today: Oracle, Adobe
- Thursday: Broadcom, Costco, lululemon
See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

Swap traders are pricing in global rate hikes at major central banks next year, except for the Fed.
Trade your odds on Polymarket.

Headline Hunt

Traders are betting on rate hikes globally next year, but not from the Fed ( BBG ).
Job openings in the US just hit a five-month high, though layoffs are ticking up too ( BBG ).
Fed favorite Hassett thinks there is room for a deeper rate cut ( WSJ ).
Trump and Bessent have whittled the list of Fed chair hopefuls down to four ( FT ).
Bank executives believe AI will drive productivity up and headcount down ( RT ).
Hedge funds and sovereign investors are positioning for a volatile 2026 ( RT ).
Bankers are prepping for an "overwhelming" wave of US IPOs ( BBG ).
Goldman expects the current M&A hot streak to roll right into 2026 ( RT ).
Goldman also sees the private equity deal machine finally waking up ( BBG ).
Private credit deployment smashed records in 2024 ( BBG ).
BAM CIO/founder Dmitry Balyasny sees AI as the single biggest tail risk for 2026 ( RT ).
Blackstone is brushing off concerns about private credit bankruptcies ( RT ).
BofA predicts US private credit defaults will actually ease in 2026 ( RT ).
Carlyle is feeling good about fundraising and expects fee growth to continue ( BBG ).
'Big Short' investor Michael Burry is betting long on Fannie and Freddie IPOs ( RT ).
HSBC's new CEO says co-heads were using the structure to dodge accountability ( BBG ).
Boaz Weinstein's Saba Capital is down 6.5% for the year ( FT ).
Trafigura is handing out big payouts to traders after another massive profit year ( BBG ).
Japanese IPOs are having their best run in seven years, raising $8B ( BBG ).
The IPO boom in the Middle East is cooling off as global competition heats up ( BBG ).
European defense stocks are just getting started, according to analysts ( BBG ).
ExxonMobil is cutting its low-carbon spending by a third ( FT ).
JPMorgan shares took a hit after warning about rising expenses ( FT ).
Buy Now, Pay Later loans—and their risks—are becoming a black box ( WSJ ).
The owner of the NYSE says half their clients are eyeing prediction markets ( BBG ).
JPMorgan plans to put its name on a new tower in the Boston skyline ( BBG ).

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

Shareholders of Anglo American and Teck Resources gave the green light to their $50B merger.
Xtellus Partners has a plan to use proceeds from the $22B sale of Lukoil to repay US investors like BlackRock, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs caught in the freeze.
Hamburg Commercial Bank, backed by Cerberus, is looking at a potential sale worth ~$4B.
ADNOC looks like the favorite to buy Russia's stake in Serbian refiner NIS for roughly $2.6B.
Jana Partners is pushing banking fintech Alkami to put itself up for sale.
Grupo Televisa is eyeing AT&T's Mexico unit, potentially valued at $2B.
BlackRock-owned Global Infrastructure Partners is buying 49% of Western Australia Iron Ore from BHP for $2B.
Novartis is picking up UK biotech Relation Therapeutics for $1.7B.
Bain Capital might sell off the international assets of Japan's Tanabe Pharma for up to $500M.
GIP is putting $335M into Aditya Birla Renewables, a unit of Aditya Birla.
Otro Capital is taking a minority stake in Utah Brands & Entertainment, the new commercial arm of the University of Utah.

Venture Flow

Revolut is offering a secondary buyback for employees at a 30% discount.
Unconventional AI secured a massive $475M seed round at a $4.5B valuation, led by a16z and Lightspeed.
Saviynt raised $700M in Series B funding led by KKR.
Boom Supersonic grabbed $300M, with Darsana Capital Partners leading the round.
fal raised a $140M Series D led by Sequoia.
Generative Bionics picked up $80M, led by La Caisse.
Solve Intelligence raised $40M in a Series B led by Visionaries and 20VC.
Assaia raised $26.6M in Series B funds from Armira Growth.
AnySignal closed a $24M Series A led by Upfront Ventures.
Prime Security raised a $20M Series A led by Scale Venture Partners.
Safebooks secured a $15M seed round led by 10D.
Pollo AI raised $14M in seed funding from Gaorong Capital.
South 8 Technologies added $11M in equity, co-led by W. L. Gore & Associates and Lockheed Martin Ventures.
Cleric raised a $9.8M seed round led by Vertex Ventures US.
Buildcheck raised $5.9M in seed funding led by Uncork Capital.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

Musk's SpaceX is prepping a $30B capital raise at a $1.5T valuation—the biggest IPO ever.
Gategroup, owned by Temasek and RRJ Capital, is eyeing a $1.4B Swiss IPO.
Swiggy is coming back for $1.1B in a follow-on offering just a year after its debut.
RMZ Corp. is considering a $1B IPO in India.
Insilico Medicine aims to raise $300M in Hong Kong.
EquipmentShare.com has filed paperwork for an IPO.

The Debt Desk

CyrusOne is looking to offload $700M in debt linked to its European data centers.
TGS raised $500M via international bonds.
Kisetsu Saison Finance India, a unit of Credit Saison, is seeking a $500M offshore loan.
Newfold Digital, backed by Clearlake and Siris, secured $100M with help from Blackstone, GoldenTree, and PIMCO.

SPAC Deals

Twenty One Capital, the crypto treasury firm owned by Tether and Bitfinex, dropped 20% after its merger with Cantor Equity Partners.

Bankruptcy Watch

Ukraine reached an agreement to swap $2.6B of debt into bonds.
Bondholders of Vanke are talking to Houlihan Lokey about restructuring $1.3B in offshore debt.
Vanke's domestic creditors are voting on a plan to avoid default.
First Brands saw its loan prices drop to 63 cents after Marathon and Redwood sold their stakes.
Oroville Hospital filed for Chapter 11.
Delivery Hero is looking at restructuring its capital amid shareholder pressure.

Fresh Capital

Brookfield and QIA are launching a $20B partnership for AI infrastructure.
TPG is targeting $9B-$10B for a real estate fund and ramping up focus on Japan.
TPG also closed $6.2B for its credit special situations fund.
Blue Owl is putting $2.5B into Point.
Candlestick Capital is shutting down after a 7% drop this year.
Eiffel Investment Group raised $1.4B for energy transition credit.
Granite Asia raised $350M for private credit, backed by Temasek, Khazanah Nasional, and INA.
North Sky Capital wants $250M for a secondaries fund.
TD Asset Management rolled out a new global private credit strategy.
BlackRock is opening private markets to retail investors after buying HPS Investment Partners.

Crypto Corner

Crypto liquidity is drying up as $5B flows out of ETFs.
Short sellers are feeling the pain as tokens spike before the Fed decision.
US regulators say banks can handle crypto intermediation.
Coinbase CEO accused EU of profiting from over-regulation fines.
BlackRock filed for a staked Ether ETF.
Democrats are considering the GOP's crypto market structure bill.
PNC Financial is offering Bitcoin trading to wealthy clients.

Today’s Meme Pick

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