🔹 Hormuz Reopens, Then Doesn't

Good afternoon,

The week closed with records across the board. The S&P 500 above 7,100 for the first time, the Nasdaq on its longest winning streak since 1992, and the VIX at its lowest since February. Then came the weekend. A U.S. Navy destroyer seized an Iranian cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, Tehran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices that had tumbled 10% on Friday erased most of that move in a single overnight session. For investors thinking about retirement timelines, the useful lesson is not about oil or Iran specifically. It is that markets can price in a peaceful outcome very quickly, and unprice it just as fast.

See also: Smart Money’s Moving to Gold Fast. Are You In? ^(ad)

The Pulse

The dollar index rebounded to 98.31, recovering part of last week's three-session slide as safe-haven demand returned and Fed rate-cut odds for year-end were trimmed back. The ceasefire expires Wednesday. That date is now the single most important item on the calendar.

Markets

• Dow futures fell roughly 1% Monday morning with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures off 0.8% and 0.6%, unwinding part of Friday's rally.
• The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,126.06 (+1.20%) and the Nasdaq at 24,468.48 (+1.52%), both fresh records, capping weekly gains of 4.54% and 6.84% .
• The VIX closed Friday at 17.48, its lowest level since the Iran war began in late February, down from a peak of 31.05 on 27 March.

If the ceasefire lapses Wednesday without a deal, the question is not whether markets can absorb higher oil. They have done so for weeks. The question is how long consumer and corporate behavior hold up before the numbers start to change.

Earnings

• Netflix delivered the headline reaction of the week. Q1 revenue came in at $12.25 billion, above the $12.18 billion consensus, with EPS of $1.23 lifted by a $2.8 billion Paramount Skydance termination fee. Yet shares fell roughly 9% Friday after the company guided Q2 revenue growth to just 13% and disclosed that co-founder Reed Hastings will leave the board in June.
• TSMC posted Q1 revenue of $35.9 billion, up 40.6% year-over-year in dollar terms, with gross margin at 66.2% and full-year growth guidance raised above 30% on AI demand.
• Morgan Stanley reported record Q1 revenue of $20.6 billion, EPS of $3.43, and an all-time high of $5.1 billion in equity-trading revenue.
• Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Bank of America all set equities-trading records in the quarter, underscoring how volatility has been lucrative for Wall Street even as it clouds the broader outlook.

This week's lineup:

• Tuesday: UnitedHealth Group, RTX, Capital One, United Airlines
• Wednesday: Tesla, AT&T
• Thursday: Intel, Blackstone, American Airlines, American Express
• Friday: Procter & Gamble

Gold & Silver Moves

Gold:

Gold is trading near $4,870 per ounce this morning, holding onto last week's gains and extending what is now a fourth consecutive weekly advance. Over the past twelve months, the metal is up roughly 41%.

The bid under gold is unusually layered right now. Dollar weakness through most of last week helped. Safe-haven flows returned immediately once the weekend ship seizure in the Gulf of Oman hit the tape. And in the background, the IMF's fresh growth downgrade and higher inflation forecast give central banks less room to cut rates aggressively without losing credibility on prices.

There is also a quieter structural story worth watching. After three years of record accumulation, some central banks have turned net sellers to raise cash for war-related fiscal needs. That is a meaningful shift in one of gold's most reliable demand pillars, though private investor demand has so far absorbed the supply without much drama.

And that is the pattern worth pausing on. The buyers are changing. The ones who usually wait are no longer waiting.

When markets panic, gold doesn’t blink.

Right now, something big is happening:
Investors who normally sit still are moving fast into gold—and it’s not just a trend, it’s a warning.

But here’s the catch: most people won’t move until it’s too late.

They’ll wait for the headlines to scream.
They’ll wait until gold hits new highs.
They’ll wait—and they’ll miss it.

You don’t have to.

Gold has always been the go-to asset in times of chaos.

It’s real, tangible, and trusted—when everything else feels like it’s built on sand.

Shield your free 2026 Gold Guide now

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Silver is trading near $80.75 per ounce this morning, sitting close to 30% above its March low. It has been one of the strongest-performing mainstream assets of the past month.

Silver's run tells you something gold alone cannot. The white metal is both a monetary asset and an industrial input, exposed to solar installation, electronics, and the ongoing build-out of AI data centers. When it keeps pace with gold, as it has recently, it usually means industrial bids are joining the safe-haven bids rather than replacing them.

The Gold / Silver ratio currently sits at 60.31. That is a meaningful compression from the 75 reading seen earlier this cycle, and it places the ratio squarely in the middle of its long-term "fair value" band of roughly 50 to 80.

Historically, readings above 80 have marked silver as cheap relative to gold, and readings below 50 have marked gold as cheap relative to silver. At 60, neither metal is obviously mispriced against the other, though silver has done the heavier lifting in closing the gap over recent months.

What the recent move tells us is threefold. First, the risk sentiment story is nuanced. A pure fear trade usually pushes the ratio higher, as investors crowd into gold first. The ratio settling near 60 suggests the current environment is not pure panic. Second, inflation expectations are elevated but not unanchored. Both metals are responding to monetary concerns, with silver getting an extra push from its industrial use case. Third, industrial demand appears to be holding up even as growth forecasts soften. That is a quietly constructive signal for anyone watching the real economy through the lens of the commodities complex.

The takeaway: For a retirement-oriented portfolio, precious metals continue to do their job as purchasing-power insurance, with the ratio suggesting balance rather than chase.

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

• Ares Management agreed to acquire Whitestone REIT in a $1.7 billion all-cash take-private deal.
• Hexagon agreed to buy Baker Hughes' Waygate Technologies non-destructive testing unit for $1.45 billion.
• Gilead Sciences agreed to acquire German oncology biotech Tubulis for roughly $5 billion.

IPO / Listings

• SpaceX filed a confidential S-1 on 1 April targeting a valuation near $1.75 trillion, with the full prospectus expected within weeks and a reported 30% retail allocation.
• Defense drone maker Aevex priced its IPO at $20 and opened at $23.01 on debut, raising $320 million.

Retirement Lens

A week like this rewards the boring things. Diversification across asset classes. Enough cash or short-duration bonds to avoid selling equities during an overnight reversal. A precious metals position sized for insurance, not speculation. And a plan that assumes ceasefires occasionally break before breakfast.

The S&P 500 is at record highs. Gold is near record highs. Oil is back near $90. All three can be true at once. For anyone drawing or planning to draw income from a portfolio, the work this week is not to predict Wednesday's outcome. It is to make sure the portfolio can handle either one.

Headline Hunt

• Trump threatened to destroy every power plant and bridge in Iran if Tehran rejects a deal.
• U.S. gasoline hit a national average of $4.05 per gallon Sunday, with the Energy Secretary saying sub-$3 gas may not return until next year.
• Initial jobless claims fell to 207,000, the lowest four-week average since June 2024.
• March PPI rose 4.0% year-over-year, with a 0.5% monthly gain below the 1.1% consensus.
• San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly said policy is "slightly restrictive" and favored a wait-and-see posture.
• Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she still sees a chance of a Fed cut this year despite the oil shock.
• JPMorgan posted Q1 net income of $16.49 billion on revenue of $50.54 billion, though it trimmed full-year NII guidance.