HOSTILE HOLIDAYS

HOSTILE HOLIDAYS

Good morning,

Paramount has officially launched a $108B hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, looking to crash Netflix's party. Our thoughts are with the junior bankers whose holiday plans just evaporated.

Getting started.

The Pulse

As of 12/8/2025 market close.

Markets

  • US stocks pulled back yesterday as traders nervously eyed the upcoming Fed rate decision.
    • The S&P 500 snapped its four-day winning streak.
  • Canada's TSX index is having a banner year, up 25% year-to-date.
  • US Treasury yields climbed to two-month highs.
  • Traders are pricing in a 30% chance of an ECB rate hike next year.
    • Germany's 10-year yield rose to 2.86%, hitting a nine-month high.
    • Germany's 5-year yield jumped 10 basis points.
  • The Congo franc is the surprise performer, up 30% year-to-date as Africa's best currency.

Earnings

  • Toll Brothers posted higher revenue but saw profits dip, issuing a cautious outlook on deliveries due to sluggish demand. (WSJ)
  • This week's lineup:
    • Today: Campbell's, GameStop, Cracker Barrel
    • Wednesday: Oracle, Adobe
    • Thursday: Broadcom, Costco, lululemon
  • See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

  • Merger arbitrage has never been this simple.
  • Trade your odds on Polymarket.

Headline Hunt

  • Berkshire's top stock picker Todd Combs is leaving for JPMorgan. (CNBC)
  • Berkshire is shaking up its leadership as Buffett prepares to step down. (RT)
  • Jamie Dimon named advisors for his $1.5T US investment pledge. (WSJ)
  • PIMCO CIO warned of "dangerous" assumptions lurking in credit ratings. (BBG)
  • J Pow's vote-gathering challenge highlights the test awaiting the next Fed chair. (BBG)
  • Bond investors are betting on a mild rate cut cycle, positioning in the middle of the curve. (RT)
  • Retail investors are helping drive gold and US stocks into bubble territory. (FT)
  • Hedge funds are tapping US leveraged-swap bets as the basis trade stagnates. (BBG)
  • Companies are rushing to bond markets for cut-price M&A funding. (BBG)
  • US tariff shocks drove global FX trading to a record high. (BBG)
  • The US will allow Nvidia to sell H200 chips to China with a 25% tax. (CNBC)
  • Trump says Netflix and Paramount are not his friends as the WBD fight heats up. (RT)
  • Trump will issue an order creating a national AI rule. (RT)
  • Foreign investors are dominating Japan's bond market. (BBG)
  • Ares will join the S&P 500. (BRN)
  • The number of listed Canadian firms shrank for the fourth straight year. (BBG)
  • Nine EU nations urged extreme caution on "Buy European" policies. (RT)
  • German corporate bankruptcies surged to a decade high this year. (RT)
  • China's trade surplus topped $1T for the first time. (FT)
  • Evolution was ordered to compensate a trader who made 97% of its revenues. (FT)
  • A simulated trading firm accused of fraud cleared a hurdle to restart. (BBG)
  • PepsiCo reached a deal with activist Elliott. (WSJ)
  • Ben & Jerry's chair refused to resign despite pressure from Unilever. (RT)
  • The US unveiled a $12B bailout for farmers. (WSJ)

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

  • Paramount Skydance launched a $108.4B hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, backed by PIF, L'imad, QIA, Affinity Partners, and RedBird Capital.
  • Netflix offered $83B for WBD in a competing bid.
  • IBM will acquire Confluent at a 34% premium.
  • Antero Resources and Antero Midstream agreed to buy assets from HG Energy II for $3.9B cash.
  • Worthington Steel held talks with Kloeckner.
  • ContextLogic acquired US Salt from Emerald Lake Capital Management for $900M, with BC Partners contributing $150M.
  • Carlyle is the frontrunner to acquire Hogy Medical.
  • Mirum Pharmaceuticals agreed to acquire Bluejay Therapeutics for $820M.
  • NextEra Energy agreed to acquire Symmetry Energy Solutions for $800M.
  • Altor Equity Partners will acquire Evac from Bridgepoint for $700M.
  • Hayfin Capital Management and Capreon agreed to buy the Can of Ham tower for $453M.
  • Apollo will take a stake in Wrexham AFC.
  • Jefferies agreed to buy a 50% stake in Hildene for $340M cash as Hildene acquires Silac.
  • Cinven will acquire a majority stake in Flint Global at a $255M valuation.
  • Prime agreed to acquire Harbour Energy's Indonesia assets for $215M.
  • Ares acquired Redback Boots for $66M.
  • Bain Capital is considering new backers for Bridge Data Centres.
  • Boeing and Airbus completed their acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems.
  • Germany is closing in on a deal to buy a stake in TenneT.

Venture Flow

  • Skild is in talks to raise over $1B at a $14B valuation from SoftBank and Nvidia.
  • Ripple's $500M share sale at a $40B valuation to Citadel Securities and Fortress came with strong protections.
  • Crown raised a $13.5M Series A at a $90M valuation led by Paradigm.
  • COGNNA raised a $9.2M Series A led by Impact46.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Medline, backed by Blackstone, Carlyle, and Hellman & Friedman, is seeking to raise $5.4B at a $55B valuation.
  • L'Oreal acquired another 10% stake in Galderma from EQT.
  • Unilever's spinoff The Magnum Ice Cream debuted lower than expected at a $9.1B market cap.
  • BNP Paribas Cardif will raise its stake in Ageas for $1.3B and sell its stake in AG Insurance for $2.2B.
  • Andersen Group is pursuing a $176M IPO at a $1.75B valuation.
  • Dragon Capital plans to list all its shares at a $150M market cap.
  • MetaX Integrated Circuits and Onmicro Electronics saw their IPOs heavily oversubscribed after Moore Threads' debut.

SPAC Deals

  • Freenome will merge with Perceptive Capital Solutions Corp in a $330M deal involving Perceptive Advisors, RA Capital, and ADAR1 Capital Management.

The Debt Desk

  • Paramount lined up $54B of bridge financing from Bank of America, Citigroup, and Apollo.
  • CoreWeave plans to raise $2B in convertible bonds.
  • Bally's secured amended loan commitments from Ares, King Street, and TPG to lift its term loan to $1.1B.
  • Carlyle is providing $340M in private credit to Mecachrome.
  • Universal Bank hired Morgan Stanley to explore a debut international bond sale.

Bankruptcy Watch

  • Lenders including CVC, KKR, Blackstone, and HIG Capital will take control of Colisée from EQT after writing off $1.4B of debt.
  • Vanke's bondholders are discussing payment delays with officials.
  • Dalian Wanda's CRE unit is seeking to delay a $400M bond payment.
  • Spirit Airlines will transfer gates to American Airlines for $30M.

Fresh Capital

  • Ares raised $3.2B for its debut credit secondaries fund.
  • Tiger Global is raising $2.2B for its seventeenth VC fund.
  • MarcyPen Capital Partners is working with Hanwha Asset Management to raise a $500M PE fund.
  • FoodLabs raised $122M for its third fund.

Crypto Corner

  • BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF is up 40% year-over-year.
  • Bank CEOs are set to meet senators on crypto market structure.
  • Criminals are using stablecoins to bypass bank security.
  • Binance gained major regulatory wins in Abu Dhabi.
  • StableChain launch shows how far crypto has strayed.
  • Strategy's 60% slide leaves Bitcoin's biggest booster with dwindling options.

Today’s Meme Pick

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