LARRY ELLISON'S $25 BILLION HAIRCUT

LARRY ELLISON'S $25 BILLION HAIRCUT

Good morning,

Hedge funds are dusting off the old appraisal arbitrage playbook, while the US trade deficit has tightened to a five-year low. Biotech funds are on an absolute tear, foreign capital is fleeing Asian markets, and exchanges are eyeing derivatives for private assets. Meanwhile, Larry Ellison just saw $25 billion vanish from his net worth as Oracle shares took a nosedive.

Getting started.

The Pulse

As of 12/11/2025 market close.

Markets

  • US stocks climbed yesterday as the market digested the Fed rate cut alongside growing anxiety over AI spending.
    • The S&P and Dow hit new all-time highs.
    • The Dow outperformed the S&P by the widest margin since January.
    • Oracle credit default swaps spiked to levels not seen since 2008.
  • Thailand's SET index is down 10% year-to-date, making it Asia's worst performer as capital flees.
  • The Indian rupee dropped to a new record low.

Earnings

  • Costco beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines, driven by younger members, digital sales, and fee hikes (CNBC).
  • Broadcom delivered a beat-and-raise quarter on surging AI demand, expecting AI chip sales to double in Q1 (CNBC).
  • lululemon beat expectations and raised guidance but fired its CEO after years of struggling with competition and weak demand (CNBC).
  • See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

Headline Hunt

  • Private capital advisory is now the hottest job for college grads (EFC).
  • The US trade deficit has narrowed to a five-year low (RT).
  • Jobless claims in the US surged by the most since the pandemic (RT).
  • The US plans to boost tax breaks for corporations (BBG).
  • Bessent is emphasizing economic growth as the path to easing regulations (BBG).
  • The Fed reappointed regional chiefs early to shield them from politics (FT).
  • The BOJ says the economy has weathered US tariffs just fine (FT).
  • Switzerland held interest rates steady at 0% (CNBC).
  • Top exchanges are setting their sights on derivatives for private markets (BBG).
  • Hedge funds like AQR and Elliott are reviving the appraisal arbitrage play (BBG).
  • Asia stocks are seeing the biggest foreign outflows in six years due to AI valuation fears (RT).
  • Retail investors are loading up on Netflix after a $40B selloff (BBG).
  • Investors are calling the SpaceX listing the "craziest IPO" ever (RT).
  • Biotech hedge funds are seeing gains hit 100% year-to-date (FT).
  • VC fundraising is on track for its worst year since 2017 (INC).
  • Emerging manager hedge funds are booming in the UAE (BBG).
  • Emerging market private credit surged to a record $18B (FT).
  • London's IPO market is brightening after a rebound in Q4 deals (BBG).
  • KKR sees a European credit renaissance fueled by the ABS boom (BBG).
  • CPPIB's CEO warned against rushing into private credit deals (FT).
  • Apollo sees echoes of SVB in the US insurance sector's shift to the Caymans (BBG).
  • Deutsche Bank has the most exposure among European banks to shadow banks (BBG).
  • BofA promoted 394 people to MD (RT).
  • Tesla US sales hit a four-year low (RT).
  • OpenAI launched GPT-5.2 after a "code red" response to Google (RT).
  • Larry Ellison's net worth plunged $25B on the Oracle slump (BBG).

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

  • SoftBank is weighing an acquisition of Switch, the DigitalBridge-backed data center operator, at a valuation over $50B; they are also talking about buying DigitalBridge.
  • Sembcorp Industries is acquiring Australia's Alinta Energy for $4.3B to expand overseas.
  • Apollo is exploring a sale or IPO of golf club operator Invited at a $3B valuation.
  • General Atlantic and CPPIB agreed to buy Boats Group from Permira for over $2B.
  • The Wyckoff family bought Ste. Michelle Wine Estates from Sycamore, handing the PE firm and lenders a loss.
  • Mollie, backed by Blackstone and EQT, is acquiring UK fintech GoCardless in a $1.2B mostly-stock deal.
  • Keppel REIT is buying another third of Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3 from Sageland for $725M.
  • Freudenberg offered to buy industrial vacuum maker Nilfisk for $595M.
  • Blackstone is acquiring a portfolio of Texas retail properties for $440M.
  • Carnelian Energy Capital is looking to sell six of its North American O&G investments.
  • Natixis and Generali ended talks for a $3T asset management JV.
  • Blackstone will acquire a portfolio of grocery-anchored retail properties in Texas for $440M.
  • Blockstream's asset management arm is acquiring hedge fund Corbiere Capital.
  • Nexo is acquiring Argentinian trading platform Buenbit.

Venture Flow

  • OpenAI secured a $1B strategic investment from Disney.
  • Serval raised a $75M Series B at a $1B valuation led by Sequoia.
  • K2 Space raised a $250M Series C led by Redpoint.
  • Harness raised a $240M Series E at a $5.5B valuation led by Goldman Sachs.
  • Impulse Dynamics raised $158M from Sands Capital, Braidwell, Redmile, and others.
  • Port raised a $100M Series C at an $800M valuation led by General Atlantic.
  • Medra raised a $52M Series A led by Human Capital.
  • Runware raised a $50M Series A led by Dawn Capital.
  • Ritten raised a $35M Series B led by Five Elms Capital.
  • Outset raised a $30M Series B led by Radical Ventures.
  • Cascade raised a $15M seed round co-led by Polychain and Variant.
  • Subsense raised $10M from Golden Falcon Capital.
  • Spoor raised a $9.3M Series A led by SET Ventures.
  • Cynch AI raised $9M led by TGV.
  • Trendtracker raised a $7M Series A led by Armilar.
  • AIR raised a $6.1M Seed round co-led by Work-Bench Ventures and Lerer Hippeau.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • ICICI Prudential Asset Management opened orders for its India IPO, eyeing a $1.2B raise at a $12B valuation.
  • TPG is considering a stake sale or IPO of jeweler APM Monaco at a $2B valuation.

The Debt Desk

  • The EU is extending its freeze on Russian assets to back a $105B loan to Ukraine.
  • India's RBI bought $5.5B of bonds.
  • ABN Amro Bank completed a risk transfer with Blackstone on a $2.3B loan portfolio.
  • STMicroelectronics secured a $1.2B credit line from the EIB.
  • Mariner Wealth Advisors is raising $1.2B in high-yield debt for refinancing.
  • Argentina raised $1B in a domestic dollar bond sale, plotting a return to global markets.

Bankruptcy Watch

  • The DIP loan for First Brands crashed to 30 cents after Marathon and Redwood sold.
  • Flacks Group offered to revive Italy's ILVA steel plant, potentially buying the state's stake for up to $1.1B.
  • Grand Slam Track League filed for bankruptcy.

Fresh Capital

  • Krefeld, the family office linked to Hermes, launched Breithorn Holding to diversify assets, investing in Albingia and Anjac Health & Beauty.
  • Ilex Capital Partners raised another $2B, bringing AUM to $7B.
  • CAPZA, part of AXA, raised $1.3B for a senior loan fund.
  • Integrity Growth Partners raised $220M for a debut fund.

Crypto Corner

  • JPMorgan arranged a short-term bond for Galaxy on the Solana blockchain.
  • Coinbase is planning to launch prediction markets and tokenized stocks.
  • The SEC approved the DTCC to tokenize stocks.
  • Norway's Norges Bank paused its CBDC plans.

Today’s Meme Pick

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