MUSK'S $1.25T POWER MOVE

Elon Musk has decided to merge SpaceX with xAI, which had already been rolled into X.

MUSK'S $1.25T POWER MOVE

Good afternoon,

Elon Musk has decided to merge SpaceX with xAI, which had already been rolled into X. This new conglomerate is sporting a $1.25T valuation. Some call it strategic synergy, others call it a very expensive way to organize a desk. Either way, it is a massive shift in the private markets.

Getting started.

The Pulse

As of 2/2/2026 market close.
As of 2/2/2026 market close.

Markets

  • US stocks moved higher following some decent economic data, leaving the S&P sitting right on the edge of a new all-time high.
  • Stoxx 600 in Europe and the FTSE 100 in the UK managed to hit their own record peaks.
  • KOSPI index dropped 5.3%.
  • Yields on Australia 10-year bonds are nearing 5% as markets anticipate a rate hike, while India saw its 10-year yields hit a one-year high of 6.8%.
  • Gold volatility actually surpassed Bitcoin, reaching levels we haven't seen since 2008.

Earnings

  • This week's lineup:
    • Today: AMD, PepsiCo, PayPal
    • Wednesday: Alphabet, Uber, Novo Nordisk
    • Thursday: Amazon, Shell, Reddit, Roblox
    • Friday: Toyota
  • See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

Headline Hunt

  • Both the new Fed chair and the Treasury secretary are former students of Druckenmiller. (WSJ)
  • Global bond sales have already surpassed $1T this year, the fastest we have ever seen. (BBG)
  • Foreign investors are snapping up US credit at the highest rate in three years. (BBG)
  • OpenAI is looking for alternatives to Nvidia chips as they scale. (RT)
  • US manufacturing finally showed growth after a year of contraction. (RT)
  • Hedge funds have notably reduced their exposure to North America over the last twelve months. (RT)
  • The EU is having a difficult time finding new sources for its rare earths supply. (FT)
  • CAT bond sales reached new record highs during the previous year. (CNBC)
  • The rally in emerging market stocks seems to be holding up after a strong January. (RT)
  • US banks are anticipating a rise in loan demand as we move through 2026. (RT)
  • Selling intensity in Asia can be partly explained by record-high margin levels. (BBG)

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

  • Elon Musk merged SpaceX with xAI and X to create a single entity valued at $1.25T.
  • Glencore is reportedly bringing on Citigroup to advise on a potential $200B merger with Rio Tinto.
  • Toyota Industries is facing opposition from Elliott regarding a buyout bid worth more than $35B.
  • Devon Energy is buying Coterra Energy for $21.4B in stock to build a $58B shale powerhouse.
  • Architect Capital is looking to buy a 60% stake in OnlyFans at a $5.5B valuation.
  • Apollo is taking a minority position in The GoodLife fitness clubs at a $1.46B valuation.
  • Ares and Finint are leading a group to buy Milione for $1.42B.
  • Donerail has made a $1B cash offer for MarineMax.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Oracle is aiming to raise between $45B and $50B this year through a mix of debt and equity to build out AI infrastructure.
  • Emirates Global Aluminum is starting meetings for an IPO that could value the company at $10B to $15B.
  • The National Stock Exchange of India is looking at a $2.5B IPO as major holders like Temasek and SBI look to sell.

The Debt Desk

  • Oracle saw massive demand for its $25B bond sale, with orders reaching $129B.
  • ADIA is in the market for a $2.6B loan against infrastructure assets in Australia.
  • Argentina paid the IMF after buying $808M in drawing rights from the US.
  • Team.Blue has paused its current leveraged loan plans.

SPAC Deals

  • Ethiopia is facing potential legal action from bondholders over a $1B default.
  • Fictor in Brazil has filed for bankruptcy to deal with $760M in debt.

Fresh Capital

  • QIA is putting money into several firms like Greycroft as part of a $3B venture program.
  • Square Peg Capital closed two new funds totaling $650M.
  • Santé Ventures raised $330M for its fifth biotech-focused fund.

Crypto

  • The crypto market saw $2.6B in Bitcoin liquidations recently. Exchanges are feeling the pressure as investors pull back amidst broader market uncertainty.
  • Meanwhile, talks at the White House regarding stablecoin yields seem to be at a standstill.
  • New accounting rules are forcing companies like Netflix and Intel to be much more transparent about their tax payments. The WSJ broke down the details here.

Today’s Meme Pick

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