MUSK’S TRILLION-DOLLAR CONSOLIDATION PLAY

We are waiting on Trump to announce his Fed chair pick today, while Blackstone is quietly lining up one of the largest IPO pipelines in history.

MUSK’S TRILLION-DOLLAR CONSOLIDATION PLAY

Good afternoon,

We are waiting on Trump to announce his Fed chair pick today, while Blackstone is quietly lining up one of the largest IPO pipelines in history. OpenAI isn't slowing down either, making progress on a massive $100B pre-IPO funding round.

But the real story is Elon. Musk is reportedly considering merging SpaceX with Tesla or xAI. The goal? Consolidating a $3T+ business empire ahead of a historic IPO.

Getting started.

The Pulse

As of 1/29/2026 market close.
As of 1/29/2026 market close.

Markets

  • US stocks slipped yesterday as investors digested the latest earnings.
  • UK's FTSE 100 hit a record, driven by soaring commodity prices.
  • Saudi's Tadawul is up 9% YTD, tracking for its best month since Covid.
  • Siemens overtook SAP to become Germany's biggest firm by market cap.

Earnings

  • Apple crushed it. iPhone demand drove a 16% sales surge (led by a 38% jump in Greater China), though services revenue came in slightly light. (CNBC)
  • Mastercard also beat. Business spending remains solid amid a favorable macro backdrop. (BBG)
  • This week's lineup:
    • Friday: American Express, Verizon, ExxonMobil.
  • See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

Screenshot of a Polymarket prediction

Headline Hunt

  • Trump will announce his Fed chair pick today. (CNBC)
  • Rick Rieder's Fed chair candidacy highlights "key man risk" at BlackRock. (BBG)
  • The US trade deficit has widened from 2009 lows. (BBG)
  • The CFTC is writing new rules for prediction markets. (BBG)
  • Blackstone has lined up "one of the largest IPO pipelines in history." (FT)
  • US high-grade bond sales topped $200B for a record yearly start. (BBG)
  • Banks borrowed a record $140B from the BoE's short-term repo facility. (BBG)
  • Private markets have raised $230B for energy-transition funds. (BBG)
  • Central banks unexpectedly paused gold purchases last year. (FT)
  • PIMCO says private credit buyers are "blind" to the risks. (BBG)
  • The US may tap Robinhood to lead "Trump Accounts" for children. (BBG)
  • BNY won dismissal of all claims in the Epstein victims' lawsuit. (BBG)
  • Half of Americans are at risk of power outages amid the AI boom. (BBG)
  • lululemon blamed customers for not wearing botched leggings correctly. (BBG)
  • Super Bowl ad rates have hit $10M for a 30-second spot. (BBG)

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

  • Musk is consolidating the empire. SpaceX is in talks with Tesla ($1.3T listed) and xAI ($230B val) about a potential merger ahead of a historic $50B IPO.
  • Coterra Energy and Devon Energy are in advanced talks to merge into a $47B entity.
  • Alibaba's logistics arm Cainiao agreed to merge its self-driving unit with Zelos to form a $2B entity.
  • Apple agreed to acquire Israeli audio AI startup Q.ai for an estimated $2B.
  • BDT & MSD Partners is nearing a $1B deal to acquire two Four Seasons resorts from Host Hotels.

Venture Flow

  • OpenAI is raising a $100B round, with Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon in talks to invest up to $50B.
  • RobCo, a physical-AI robotics startup, raised a $100M Series C co-led by Lightspeed Venture Partners and Lingotto Innovation.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • OpenAI is prepping for a Q4 IPO, with a valuation ranging from $500B-$850B.
  • Anaplan, backed by Thoma Bravo, is preparing to confidentially file for an IPO (taken private for $10.4B in 2022).
  • Liftoff Mobile (backed by Blackstone) is seeking a $762M raise at a $5.2B valuation.
  • PicPay (Brazil) raised $434M at a $2.6B valuation in the first Brazilian listing in four years.

The Debt Desk

  • BBVA plans to issue two SRTs linked to $8.4B of assets.
  • IBM is marketing over $7.5B in dollar and euro bonds.
  • Nigeria is seeking to raise $2.9B in a domestic bond sale.
  • Ares led a $1.6B private credit deal for the Suave Brands and Elida Beauty merger.
  • Zijin Mining is seeking to raise $1.5B in a convertible bond sale.
  • Adani Group is seeking to raise $1.5B in yen-denominated debt.
  • Danantara (Indonesian SWF) secured a $1B loan.

Bankruptcy Watch

  • Blackstone is in talks to become the largest shareholder of distressed Hong Kong developer New World Development ($3.6B listed).
  • BRB (Brazil) will set aside $970M to cover losses from Banco Master.

Fresh Capital

  • South Africa is nearing the launch of a $6.3B state-linked fund.

Crypto Corner

  • A Senate panel has passed the crypto CFTC regulation bill.
  • CNBC published an in-depth analysis on gold's unprecedented surge to record highs near $5,600, examining the geopolitical tensions, weakening dollar, and robust central bank demand driving this historic rally. Financial analysts project prices could reach $7,000 by year-end.
  • Bloomberg Odd Lots sat down with Blackstone's Global CIO for Credit and Insurance Michael Zawadzki to explore how private credit grew into a $1.7 trillion asset class and why it's become critical for financing AI infrastructure. Tune in to their conversation here.

Today’s Meme Pick

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