🔹 OIL'S RECORD MONTH, AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR YOUR PORTFOLIO

Brent crude is set for its steepest monthly gain ever as the Iran conflict reshapes every corner of the market.

Good afternoon,

Five weeks into the Iran conflict, the war is no longer a headline risk. It is a market reality. Brent crude is headed for a record monthly gain of over 55%. U.S. equities have posted five consecutive weekly losses. The VIX closed above 31 for the first time since 2022. The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% and signaled it may not be cutting anytime soon. Gold, despite being the classic shelter in storms like this, continues to fall under the weight of a stronger dollar and rising yields. For anyone investing with retirement in mind, the question is no longer whether the oil shock matters. It is how deep it goes.

Getting started.

The Pulse

The two numbers that tell the story today: Brent above $115 and the VIX above 31. Energy is pulling everything else along with it, and volatility is repricing risk across the board.

Markets

U.S. equities closed Friday with a fifth straight weekly loss. The S&P 500 fell 1.67%, the Dow shed 793 points, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.15% as Houthi militants entered the conflict and additional U.S. troops deployed to the region.
Brent crude surged to $115.45 on Monday after Houthis fired missiles at Israel and Trump told the Financial Times he wanted to "take" Iran's oil. Brent is now up over 55% in March, on pace for the steepest monthly gain on record.
Aluminum jumped roughly 6% after Iran struck smelter facilities in the UAE and Bahrain, boosting Alcoa shares about 8% premarket and raising fears of a broader metals shortage.
Pimco and JPMorgan both published notes warning that equity and credit markets are still underpricing the growth and inflation risks from the conflict, even as the 10-year yield ticked up to 4.44%.

The war is no longer a tail risk that traders hedge around. It is the central driver. Every asset class, from equities to credit to industrial metals, is now being repriced through the lens of how long the Strait of Hormuz stays closed.

Earnings

BJ's Wholesale Club beat on earnings per share ($0.96 vs. $0.92 expected) but missed on revenue at $5.44B against a $5.54B consensus. The bigger concern: FY2026 guidance of $4.40–$4.60 EPS came in below the $4.66 estimate. The CEO pointed to cautious consumers and tariff headwinds. Shares fell roughly 4–5%.
FactSet projects 13% year-over-year S&P 500 earnings growth for Q1 2026, which would be the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. But estimates have been trimmed 0.5% since year-end, with Consumer Discretionary taking the largest cuts.

BJ's results are a useful signal. Consumers are pulling back, even at value-focused retailers. If tariffs and energy costs continue climbing, that margin pressure flows uphill into the broader index.

This week's lineup:
- Tuesday: Nike

Gold & Silver Moves

Gold:

Gold trades near $4,467 per ounce. That is more than 20% below its January record of roughly $5,589. For a metal that is supposed to thrive in wartime, this decline has caught many investors off guard.

The explanation is straightforward. The Iran oil shock has pushed inflation expectations higher, which has pushed bond yields higher, which has strengthened the dollar. All three of those forces work against gold. Non-yielding assets become less attractive when Treasurys offer 4.44%. Last week, gold dropped 9.6%, its worst weekly loss since September 2011. It remains on track for its worst month since October 2008. (CNBC)

Russia's reported sale of 14 tonnes of gold, its first in 25 years, added further pressure over the weekend. Fiscal strain from the war appears to have forced Moscow's hand.

Silver:

Silver sits at $68.58 per ounce after a third straight losing week. Silver has been hit even harder than gold in percentage terms, falling over 14% week-on-week, because it carries dual exposure. As an industrial metal, it suffers when global PMIs deteriorate. As a monetary metal, it suffers alongside gold when yields rise.

The Gold / Silver ratio currently sits at roughly 65:1, meaning it takes about 65 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. This has retreated sharply from the compressed levels seen in January, when gold was near $5,589 and silver above $100, pushing the ratio into the 55–58 range at peak silver strength.

At 65, the ratio falls squarely within the post-2020 historical average of 60–80. That suggests neither metal is deeply mispriced relative to the other right now. Both are being driven primarily by the same macro forces: rate expectations, dollar strength, and the oil shock's second-order effects. The ratio is not flashing a clear signal in either direction.

However, there is an asymmetry to watch. If ceasefire signals emerge and rate-hike fears ease, silver's industrial demand base could give it an edge over gold, potentially compressing the ratio back toward 55–60. Conversely, if the conflict deepens and recession fears take hold, gold's safe-haven premium could reassert itself, pushing the ratio toward 75 or higher.

The takeaway

Both metals are under pressure from the same forces. For retirement-focused investors holding precious metals as inflation insurance, the current selloff is uncomfortable but reflects rate mechanics, not a collapse in the underlying case for diversification.

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

JPMorgan successfully sold roughly $15B of the $20B debt package backing the record $55B leveraged buyout of Electronic Arts by Saudi Arabia's PIF, Silver Lake, and Affinity Partners. Orders reached ~$19B, making it the biggest bond sale since 2008. (BBG)
Taiwan's SinoPac Financial agreed to merge with King's Town Bank, creating a combined institution with approximately $100B in assets. (BBG)
Sealed Air cleared all regulatory hurdles for its $10.3B take-private by Clayton, Dubilier & Rice. The deal is expected to close in April at $42.15 per share. (Packaging Gateway)
A federal judge halted Nexstar's $6.2B merger with Tegna after DirecTV and eight state attorneys general argued the combination of 265 stations reaching 80% of U.S. TV households violates antitrust law. A full hearing is set for April 7. (BBG)

Retirement Lens

Weeks like this test the assumptions behind every retirement plan. Energy-driven inflation erodes purchasing power. Rising yields reprice bonds and rate-sensitive equities. Volatility tempts reactive decision-making. The instinct to do something is natural.

But for long-term investors, the discipline is the same as it always has been. Capital preservation in an oil shock means staying diversified, not chasing the commodity surge after it has already run 55%. Income stability means recognizing that a 4.44% Treasury yield, while uncomfortable for equity valuations, is actually offering meaningful real income for the first time in years. Portfolio resilience means having a plan that accounts for exactly this kind of environment and sticking to it.

The war may last weeks or months. The principles that protect retirement savings work across both timeframes.

Headline Hunt

S&P futures rose ~0.58% Monday morning as investors brace for a holiday-shortened week featuring JOLTS, ADP, and the March jobs report.
March PMI surveys across the U.S., euro zone, India, and Australia all declined simultaneously, the first collective economic health check since the war began.
Bloomberg analysts argue the global energy market has exited the "buffered" phase. Strategic reserves and pipeline workarounds are running dry.
Qualtrics halted a $5.3B debt deal after investors flagged AI disruption risk to its software business, a sign the credit window is closing selectively.
JPMorgan is leading a ~$4.7B loan syndication and $2.45B in high-yield bonds for CD&R's Sealed Air acquisition, stress-testing credit appetite in back-to-back large deals.
Trump told the Financial Times his "preferred option" in Iran would be to seize its crude oil, including the Kharg Island export hub.
The FOMC projected PCE inflation at 2.7% for 2026, 30 basis points above its December forecast, while Bloomberg's real-time tracker placed March CPI at 3.4% year-over-year.
Analysts warn that IEA reserve releases and Russian oil waivers will lose effectiveness in early-to-mid April, creating a potential supply cliff as the Hormuz blockade continues.