RIO TINTO'S MEGA-MERGER GAMBIT

The commodities supercycle just got its defining deal.

RIO TINTO'S MEGA-MERGER GAMBIT

Good morning,

The commodities supercycle just got its defining deal. Rio Tinto has reportedly hired banks for a jaw-dropping $260 billion merger with Glencore. If this goes through, it creates a mining colossus that would dominate everything from copper to cobalt. It is a massive bet on resource scarcity and the energy transition.

Elsewhere, the Clintons are stonewalling Congress on Epstein, and JPMorgan's earnings stumble is raising eyebrows about the health of the consumer. But the real buzz is around Anthropic's new coding agent, which is lighting up social media and terrifying junior developers everywhere.

Getting started.

The Pulse

As of 1/13/2026 market close.
As of 1/13/2026 market close.

Markets

  • U.S. stocks dipped as investors digested mixed inflation data and JPMorgan's earnings miss.
    • Options traders are now betting on zero Fed rate cuts this year.
  • The Korean won fell for a ninth straight day, its longest losing streak since 2008.
  • The Danish krone is approaching its historical defense zone against the euro amid geopolitical tension over Greenland.

Earnings

  • This week's lineup:
    • Today: Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Bank of America
    • Thursday: BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley
    • Friday: State Street
  • See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

Headline Hunt

  • Rio Tinto hired banks for a historic $260B merger with Glencore (RT)
  • Goldman Sachs topped global M&A rankings with $1.5T in deals (RT)
  • The Clintons refused to testify in the Congressional Epstein investigation (FT)
  • Greenland ruled out joining the U.S. (BBG)
  • U.S. deficit shrank to $1.7T last year thanks to record tariff revenue (BBG)
  • The basis trade has ballooned to $1.5T (BBG)
  • Hudson River Trading revenue hit a record $12.3B in 2025 (BBG)
  • VC Balderton Capital is up over 200,000% on its Revolut bet (FT)
  • The U.S. approved Nvidia H200 chip exports to China (RT)
  • Anthropic launched a new coding tool for non-coders (TC)
  • Microsoft launched an initiative to curb data center resource usage (RT)
  • Trump promised help to Iranian protesters (FT)
  • U.S. CPI growth slowed to 2.6% (CNBC)
  • China's trade surplus hit a record $1.2T (CNBC)
  • Wall Street expects strong Q4 earnings (RT)
  • U.S. biotech share sales hit $2.5B year-to-date (BBG)

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

  • Rio Tinto hired banks for a potential $260B merger with Glencore.
  • Netflix revised its offer for Warner Bros. Discovery to an all-cash bid for studios and streaming.
  • Eli Lilly is preparing a $17.5B bid for Abivax.
  • Aware Super acquired a 31% stake in European Outlet Mall Venture, valuing the portfolio at $3B.
  • U.S. Bancorp agreed to acquire BTIG for $1B.
  • CoinGecko is exploring a $500M sale.
  • Polygon agreed to buy Coinme and Sequence for over $250M.
  • Symrise is in talks to sell its terpenes business.

Venture Flow

  • Onebrief raised a $220M Series D at a $2.15B valuation led by Battery Ventures.
  • Defense Unicorns raised a $136M Series B at a $1B valuation led by Bain Capital.
  • Deepgram raised a $130M Series C at a $1.3B valuation led by AVP.
  • Wasabi Technologies raised a $70M round led by L2 Point Management.
  • WitnessAI raised a $58M round led by Sound Ventures.
  • Converge Bio raised a $25M Series A led by Bessemer Venture Partners.
  • WeatherPromise raised a $12.8M Series A led by Maveron.
  • Nuclera raised a $12M Series C extension.
  • NetBird raised a $10M Series A led by Pace Capital.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Czechoslovak Group is preparing a $35B IPO in Amsterdam.
  • Bitpanda is eyeing a Germany IPO at a valuation up to $5.8B.
  • Liftoff, backed by Blackstone, filed for an IPO (last valued at $4.3B).
  • U.S. is seeking to invest $1B in L3Harris' missile unit.
  • Asta Energy Solutions is considering a Germany IPO at a $582M valuation.

The Debt Desk

  • Colombia sold $5B of dollar bonds.
  • Ukraine corporates are seeking to restructure $3B in debt.
  • Apollo is offering to buy more of xAI's $3.5B debt.
  • Pan American Energy is in talks for a $1B loan.
  • Nigeria plans to raise $352M in green bonds.
  • Enova Power is preparing a $180M debt sale.

Bankruptcy Watch

  • Venezuela is appealing a court ruling awarding PDV to Elliott for $5.9B.
  • Saks is lining up a $1.75B DIP loan for an imminent bankruptcy filing.
  • Brazil supports the liquidation of Banco Master.
  • Tricolor executives pleaded not guilty to fraud.

Fresh Capital

  • Ares raised $7.1B for a private credit secondaries fund.

Crypto Corner

  • Ex-NYC Mayor Eric Adams rug-pulled investors in "NYCCoin."

Today’s Meme Pick

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