RUBIO'S REAL ESTATE PLAY

Marco Rubio is taking "diplomacy" literally.

RUBIO'S REAL ESTATE PLAY

Good morning,

Marco Rubio is taking "diplomacy" literally. He told Congress the U.S. intends to buy Greenland. Between that and the new oil deal with Venezuela, Washington is acting more like a private equity firm than a government right now.

Speaking of private equity, management fees have hit a record low of 1.6%. It is a buyer's market for LPs. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is opening its doors to all foreign investors, and a bond trader just placed the biggest fed funds bet in history. The risk appetite is back.

Getting started.

The Pulse

As of 1/6/2026 market close.
As of 1/6/2026 market close.

Markets

  • U.S. stocks continued their rally on broad tech and geopolitical optimism.
    • Data center cooling stocks dropped over 5% while memory stocks soared ~10% following (Jensen Huang's CES speech).
    • SanDisk is up 855% since spinning off last year. It is the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 for both 2025 and 2026.
  • Emerging Market stocks hit a fresh all-time high despite global uncertainty.
    • Korea's KOSPI index is up 8% year-to-date.
    • Venezuelan stocks are up ~70% year-to-date.
  • Gold rose closer to its all-time high.
  • Silver surged closer to its record, posting a 170% year-over-year gain.

Earnings

  • This week's lineup:
    • Wednesday (today): Jefferies, Constellation Brands.
  • See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

  • Wall Street is guessing before Trump decides (Polymarket)

Headline Hunt

  • Marco Rubio told Congress the U.S. plans to buy Greenland (NYT)
  • Private markets fundraising hit a record $1.4T last year on a credit rush (AW)
  • Venezuela will give 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S. (CNBC)
  • Goldman Sachs topped global M&A rankings with $1.5T in deals (RT)
  • Teucrium filed for a "Venezuela Exposure" ETF (BBG)
  • Advisors say the rush to invest in Venezuela is "nuts" (BBG)
  • The Venezuela bond rally belies a complex $150B creditor and political web (RT)
  • A trader placed the biggest-ever fed funds futures bet (BBG)
  • PE management fees hit a record low of 1.6% last year (CNBC)
  • Two-thirds of regional Fed banks voted against a December rate cut (RT)

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

  • Shareholders at regional lender Comerica approved a $10.9B sale to rival Fifth Third Bank.
  • European PE firm Hg agreed to take financial software maker OneStream private at a $6.4B equity value. That represents a 30% premium.
  • Beverage giant AB InBev agreed to re-acquire a 49.9% stake in its U.S. metal container plants from a consortium led by Apollo for $3B.
  • Eyewear firm STAAR Surgical plans to reject a $1.6B take-private offer from Swiss rival Alcon.
  • Eli Lilly is in advanced talks to acquire biotech Ventyx Biosciences for over $1B. That is an 82% premium.
  • KKR will acquire sports-focused PE firm Arctos Partners for $1B.
  • AI chipmaker Marvell agreed to buy XConn Technologies in a $540M deal.

Venture Flow

  • Musk's xAI raised a $20B Series E at a reported $230B valuation from investors including Valor Equity Partners and Fidelity.
  • Crowdsourced AI benchmarking startup LMArena raised a $150M Series A at a $1.7B valuation led by Felicis.
  • Quantum computing startup Photonic raised a $130M round led by Planet First Partners.
  • Semiconductor services startup GS Microelectronics raised a $35M Series B led by Maverick Silicon.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Discord filed confidentially for an IPO. The firm was last valued at $15B in 2021.

Distress Signals

  • Israel raised $6B in a eurobond sale.
  • Six Flags Entertainment is seeking to raise $1B in a junk bond sale.

Bankruptcy Watch

  • NYC asked a bankruptcy judge to delay the auction of Pinnacle Group's apartments to evaluate a $451M deal with Summit Properties USA.

Fresh Capital

  • Credit investor Monroe Capital raised $6.1B for its fifth lower middle-market private credit fund.

Crypto Corner

  • Morgan Stanley filed for Bitcoin and Solana ETFs.
  • Amy Arnott shared eight important market lessons from 2025 (here).

Today’s Meme Pick

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