SHINING A LIGHT ON PRIVATE CREDIT

SHINING A LIGHT ON PRIVATE CREDIT

Good morning,

The opaque world of private credit is about to get a lot less secretive. A former insider from Egan-Jones has launched Transparency Analytics. This new ratings firm is designed to shine a light on shadow lending. It is a bold play in a market that usually thrives on darkness.

Elsewhere, the talent and tech wars are escalating. Goldman Sachs is raiding Qatalyst for top bankers. Meanwhile, Google and Meta are joining forces to chip away at Nvidia's stronghold. The fight for AI dominance is getting expensive and personal.

Getting started.

The Pulse

As of 12/17/2025 market close.

Markets

  • U.S. stocks took a tumble yesterday. The drop came after (reports) surfaced that Blue Owl is backing out of a data center deal with Oracle.
    • The S&P 500 has now fallen for four consecutive days.

Earnings

  • Micron beat its Q1 earnings and revenue estimates. Strong demand for AI memory is giving them serious pricing power (BBG)
  • General Mills also beat estimates for Q2 earnings. Price cuts across their U.S. grocery portfolio helped stabilize volumes despite a weary consumer (WSJ)
  • This week's lineup:
    • Today: Accenture, Nike, FedEx, CarMax
    • Friday: Carnival
  • See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

  • The only real shock would be if the delay isn't caused by a government shutdown.
  • Trade your odds on Polymarket.

Headline Hunt

  • Fed Chair candidate Waller says he will "absolutely" defend the central bank's independence (RT)
  • JPMorgan has pulled $350B in cash from the Fed to buy bonds (FT)
  • CFOs see U.S. prices rising next year with tariffs remaining a top concern (RT)
  • The U.S. signaled support for a trade deal with Canada and Mexico (BBG)
  • Traders expect a "nothingburger" from the delayed inflation report (BBG)
  • A record $185B in LatAm debt sales this year shattered all expectations (BBG)
  • Goldman Sachs sees Italy M&A surging on the back of banks and tech (BBG)
  • Google has partnered with Meta to take on Nvidia's dominance in AI software (RT)
  • BlackRock and Ray Dalio will help fund "Trump accounts" for babies (RT)
  • Goldman Sachs poached Qatalyst's founder to be global co-head of software investment banking (RT)
  • JPMorgan named Edward Byun as global head of tech equity capital markets (RT)
  • The SEC granted asset managers permission to offer dual-share-class funds (BBG)
  • BP has fired and replaced its CEO (RT)

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

  • Warner Bros. Discovery urged shareholders to reject a $108B hostile bid from Paramount Skydance over funding concerns. The firm is backing Netflix's $72B bid instead.
  • Carlyle hired Goldman Sachs to work on its bid for Lukoil's $22B international assets. ExxonMobil, Chevron, IHC, and Midad Energy are also interested.
  • Equitix is nearing a deal to acquire half of KKR's majority stake in Viridor to raise its stake to 50% at a potential $9.4B valuation.
  • Asahi agreed to acquire a 65% stake in East African Breweries from Diageo in a $2.3B deal.
  • Warburg Pincus, KKR, Blackstone, EQT, and TPG are potential bidders for Temasek-backed XCL Education, which could fetch $1.5B.
  • Warburg Pincus agreed to invest in Acclime at a $1B valuation.
  • Carlyle launched a $1B hostile bid for Hogy Medical with support from Dalton Investments.
  • Coursera will acquire rival Udemy in a $930M all-stock deal.
  • Pakistan plans to sell a 75% stake in its national carrier Pakistan International Airlines.
  • Volkswagen's battery arm PowerCo is weighing external funding options amid competition and tariffs.
  • Kongsberg Gruppen will acquire U.S. missile company Zone 5 Technologies.

Venture Flow

  • Waymo is in talks to raise ~$15B at a $100B valuation led by owner Alphabet.
  • German trading platform Trade Republic sold secondary shares at a 14.7B valuation.
  • Cyera raised a $400M round at a $9B valuation led by Blackstone.
  • MoEngage raised an additional $180M Series F led by ChrysCapital and Dragon Funds.
  • AI hardware startup Mythic raised a $125M round led by DCVC.
  • Logistics startup UniUni raised a $70M Series D led by Bessemer Venture Partners.
  • Benefits platform Ben raised a $27.5M round led by Mercia Ventures.
  • HEN Technologies raised a $20M Series A led by O'Neil Strategic Capital.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • SpaceX is entering a regulatory quiet period ahead of a potential $1.5T IPO next year.
  • Tank maker KNDS will IPO in France and Germany next year at a potential $25B valuation.
  • Medline, backed by Blackstone, Carlyle, and Hellman & Friedman, surged 40% after raising $6.3B. It is the biggest PE IPO exit ever.
  • Doncasters Group selected banks for a U.S. IPO that could value it at over $4B.
  • Activist Irenic Capital Management built a 3% stake in Integer Holdings (market cap $2.6B) and is pushing for a sale.
  • CloudKitchens delayed plans to list its Middle Eastern business valued at $2B and will pursue a private placement instead.
  • Telefonica will delist its ADS from the U.S. due to cost concerns.

The Debt Desk

  • Blue Owl backed out of providing $10B in financing for an Oracle data center. Blackstone is now in talks to provide equity with Bank of America leading the debt.
  • Brightline, backed by Fortress, is considering raising $100M in junk debt.

Bankruptcy Watch

  • First Brands is seeking $800M in new DIP financing after its original $1.1B loan fell through.
  • Mariner's Gate filed for bankruptcy to halt JPMorgan's foreclosure on its Chelsea loft building. Deal value around $53M.
  • The U.S. charged Daniel Chu, founder of Tricolor, with conspiring to defraud lenders.
  • Former First Brands exec Nigel Crighton will plead the fifth in a deposition.
  • Chinese developer Vanke asked banks to accept delayed interest on certain borrowings.
  • Germany charged two ex-board members of Greensill Bank with bankruptcy crimes.

Fresh Capital

  • Energy Capital Partners, backed by Bridgepoint, returned $5.5B to LPs in its best year ever.
  • MML Capital raised $1.1B for a debut infrastructure fund.
  • Fortino Capital raised $820M for its third PE fund.
  • Point72 is considering building a commodities business.

Crypto Corner

  • The FDIC approved tech-focused Erebor Bank for deposit insurance coverage.
  • Binance is weighing its U.S. strategy as founder CZ regains clout.
  • CFTC Chairman Caroline Pham will join crypto payments firm MoonPay as legal chief.
  • The FT did a deep dive into Zuckerberg's turbulent bet on AI (here).

Today’s Meme Pick

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