STARTUPS ARE EATING EACH OTHER

The rumor mill is spinning: BlackRock’s Rick Rieder is suddenly the frontrunner for Fed Chair.

STARTUPS ARE EATING EACH OTHER

Good afternoon,

The rumor mill is spinning: BlackRock’s Rick Rieder is suddenly the frontrunner for Fed Chair. Bond traders are already placing their bets, hiking duration risk on the assumption of a pause in rate cuts. Meanwhile, Bridgewater is doubling down on the idea that AI spending is about to fundamentally reshape the economy.

But the real action is in the private markets. We are seeing a massive wave of startups buying other startups. As the AI landscape shifts, consolidation isn't just a strategy. It's survival.

Also, keep an eye on trade. The US just slapped tariffs on South Korea after some deal delays. It’s a volatile mix out there, but that’s usually where the money is made.

Getting started.

The Pulse

As of 1/26/2026 market close.
As of 1/26/2026 market close.

Markets

  • US stocks climbed yesterday as everyone braces for a massive earnings week.
  • Emerging Market stocks and currencies just hit all-time highs.
  • The Dollar has slipped to a four-year low.
    • The EM-dollar carry trade is already up 1.3% this year, following its best run since 2009.
  • Gold and silver are still surging to new all-time highs.
  • Natural gas spiked 30% thanks to that nationwide winter storm.

Earnings

  • This week's lineup:
    • Today: Boeing, GM, American Airlines.
    • Wednesday: Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Starbucks, IBM.
    • Thursday: Apple, Visa, L3 Harris, Southwest Airlines.
    • Friday: American Express, Verizon, ExxonMobil.
  • See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

Headline Hunt

  • Trump is changing his tune on immigration as backlash against ICE grows. (FT)
  • Long-term unemployment in the US has climbed to a four-year high. (FT)
  • Venezuela's oil reforms are bringing in cash, but deeper changes are needed. (RT)
  • Canadian PM Carney is planning a global tour as the country pivots its trade strategy. (RT)
  • Bond investors are taking on more duration risk with a Fed pause likely. (RT)
  • Startups are selling themselves to other startups at an increasing rate. (PB)
  • European junk bond sales are soaring now that US tariff threats on Greenland have faded. (BBG)
  • Hedge funds see a prime window for arbitrage deals, especially in biotech. (BBG)
  • Europe’s IPO market is kicking off 2026 at a record pace. (FT)
  • Blackstone is looking to hire more in Asia as demand explodes. (BBG)
  • Morgan Stanley is expanding its ties with MUFG in a major Japan push. (BBG)
  • Investors in LVMH want answers on the Bernard Arnault succession plan. (RT)
  • The US Treasury dropped Booz Allen contracts after tax return leaks. (CNBC)
  • PwC is back to pitching the Saudi PIF now that their ban has ended. (BBG)
  • A former Citigroup exec sued the bank alleging harassment by a wealth CEO. (FT)
  • Meta, TikTok, and YouTube are heading to trial over teen harm claims. (WSJ)

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

  • Private equity giants Blackstone, Brookfield, EQT, and CVC, along with Yanmar, are circling Volkswagen's heavy diesel unit Everllence with bids expected around $6B-$7B.
  • CVC is acquiring Marathon Asset Management for $1.2B.
  • Retelit, owned by Asterion Industrial Partners, might sell its data center arm for $825M.
  • ADNOC snapped up another 7.6% stake in the Rio Grande LNG project from BlackRock's Global Infrastructure Partners.

Venture Flow

  • AI video startup Synthesia secured a $200M Series E at a $4B valuation, led by GV.
  • Property platform Visitt raised a $22M Series B led by Susquehanna Growth Equity.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Nvidia poured another $2B into CoreWeave, valuing the AI cloud firm at $50B.
  • Forgent is looking to raise $1.6B in an IPO that would value it at $8.8B.
  • Furniture retailer Bob's Discount Furniture, backed by Bain Capital, wants to raise $370M at a $2.5B valuation.
  • Michael Burry is buying shares of GameStop again.

The Debt Desk

  • UniCredit is issuing SRTs tied to a massive $6B portfolio of loans.
  • Saudi Aramco priced a $4B bond sale.
  • Goldman Sachs sold another $2.5B bond just weeks after raising $16B.
  • Scotland has started the process for its debut $2.1B bond sale.
  • Kenya is looking for $970M in short-term loans.

Bankruptcy Watch

  • Lenders to First Brands are looking at liquidation after a $1.1B loan fell apart.
  • Apollo took a hit when a $170M facility for Perch was wiped out.
  • Pretium Packaging, owned by Clearlake Capital, struck a restructuring deal with lenders.
  • AMC bonds took a hit after the chain entered confidential talks with creditors holding 15% of its notes.

Fresh Capital

  • BlackRock TCP Capital Corp dropped 13% after writing down its NAV by 19%.

Crypto Corner

  • Tether added 27 tons of gold to its reserves in Q4.
  • Crypto is missing the macro rally while retail chases gold and equities.
  • Traders are leaving tokens for prediction markets following a $150B crash.
  • Bloomberg investigates the seismic shift in corporate governance driven by the $1.5 trillion private credit market, referencing Harvard and Duke legal scholars' research on the unintended consequences of this asset class's rapid rise. Explore the feature here.
  • Fidelity’s “markets in 2025” review uses a simple colour‑coded table to show how European stocks topped the performance league thanks to valuation catch‑up, defence spending and infrastructure outlays. See the breakdown here.
  • WSJ reports that hedge funds just delivered their best year in more than a decade, with stock pickers and macro traders back in favor as assets hit a record 3.5 trillion dollars. Read the story here.

Today’s Meme Pick

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