TARIFFS RETURN & GOLD HITS $5K

The geopolitical temperature just cranked up a notch.

TARIFFS RETURN & GOLD HITS $5K

Good afternoon,

The geopolitical temperature just cranked up a notch. The U.S. has threatened 100% tariffs on Canada if their pending deal with China goes through. Meanwhile, the private credit machine keeps printing billions despite flashing warning signs, and Goldman Sachs just handed David Solomon a $47 million pay package.

In tech news, TikTok has finally wrapped up its U.S. divestment, taking one major uncertainty off the table. But in D.C., the odds of a government shutdown are spiking again, fueled by legal controversies in Minnesota.

Getting started.

The Pulse

As of 01/23/2026 market close.
As of 01/23/2026 market close.

Markets

  • The S&P 500 finished mixed, logging its first two-week loss since June.
  • U.S. bonds are down -0.5% year-to-date.
  • Gold broke the $5,000/oz barrier for the first time.
  • Silver topped $100/oz—another historic high.

Earnings

  • This week's lineup:
    • Tuesday: Boeing, GM, American Airlines.
    • Wednesday: Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Starbucks, IBM.
    • Thursday: Apple, Visa, L3 Harris, Southwest Airlines.
    • Friday: American Express, Verizon, ExxonMobil.
  • See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

Headline Hunt

  • The U.S. has threatened 100% tariffs on Canada if their China deal proceeds (BBG)
  • U.S. control of Venezuela oil is risking a major debt showdown with China (RT)
  • Traders are stress-testing their portfolios ahead of Trump's Fed chair pick (BBG)
  • Wall Street is worried about a buyers' strike emerging in Europe (BBG)
  • Hedge funds have reclaimed the top spot in Wall Street's hierarchy (WSJ)
  • Risks are rising for a potential meltdown in the private credit sector (CNBC)
  • Hedge funds have pushed bullish gold bets to their highest levels since October (BBG)
  • The massive Netflix-WBD debt deal left banks hungry for more M&A paper (BBG)
  • Goldman Sachs bumped CEO David Solomon's pay by 20% to $47 million (BBG)
  • China has ordered top tech firms to stockpile Nvidia H200 chips (BBG)
  • TikTok's new U.S. owner tapped Adam Presser as CEO (BBG)
  • Planet Networks accused a PE firm of using a $50M deal to steal trade secrets (BBG)

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

  • Merck walked away from talks to acquire Revolution Medicines after clashing over the $30B valuation.
  • CK Hutchison is looking to sell its 43 global ports piecemeal after COSCO blocked its $23B deal with BlackRock and MSC.
  • Shell and its partners are eyeing a $20B investment in a Nigerian oil project.
  • The U.S. government will invest $1.6B for a 10% stake in USA Rare Earth.
  • Waterland is exploring a $1.2B sale of AI consultancy Xebia.
  • The NBA opened the data room for its European league to bidders including Blackstone, CVC, and Real Madrid.
  • Revolut ditched its U.S. acquisition plans to focus on applying for a banking license directly.

Venture Flow

  • Inferact (AI inference) raised a $150M seed round at an $800M valuation led by a16z.
  • Merkle Manufactory (crypto social) is returning capital to investors after an acquisition; they last raised $150M at a $1B valuation.
  • LiveKit (AI agents) raised $100M at a $1B valuation led by Index Ventures.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Czechoslovak Group raised $4.5B in Amsterdam, valuing the defense firm at $35B—the largest defense listing ever.

The Debt Desk

  • Ecuador is targeting $4B in its first bond sale since 2019.
  • Germany is discussing $845M in climate loans for South Africa.

Bankruptcy Watch

  • AMC bonds took a hit after the chain entered confidential talks with creditors holding 15% of its notes.

Fresh Capital

  • SurgoCap Partners hit $6B in assets, tripling its size in three years.

Crypto Corner

  • The SEC is set to dismiss its lending case against Gemini.
  • Bloomberg investigates the seismic shift in corporate governance driven by the $1.5 trillion private credit market, referencing Harvard and Duke legal scholars' research on the unintended consequences of this asset class's rapid rise. Explore the feature here.

Today’s Meme Pick

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