THE AI TRADE JUST HIT TURBULENCE

The AI trade is officially messy.

Good afternoon,

The AI trade is officially messy. Real estate services are taking a hit as the "AI Grim Reaper" narrative expands, software stocks are wobbling enough to derail IPOs, and Elon Musk just overhauled xAI after a massive leadership exodus. Meanwhile, Bill Ackman is betting big on Meta, and the M&A world is bracing for a year of carve-outs.here

Getting started.

The Pulse

Markets

Yields on the US 10Y Treasury dropped to a five-week low.
UK's FTSE 100 hit a fresh ATH

Earnings

This week's lineup:
- Today: Coinbase, Brookfield, Rivian
- Friday: Moderna, Wendy's
See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

Four years of preparation, one ranking. (Polymarket)

Headline Hunt

The Trump-Netanyahu meeting wrapped up with no Iran deal. (FT)
Musk has restructured xAI leadership after half the co-founders walked out. (TC)
The US budget deficit for January dropped to $95B. (RT)
US unemployment dipped to 4.3% in a solid jobs report. (CNBC)
The US is considering pulling out of the 2019 USMCA trade pact. (BBG)
Real estate services stocks are tanking in the latest AI scare trade. (BBG)
PE-backed companies are deferring loan payments more often. (BBG)
UK firms are rushing to sell pound bonds after that huge Google deal. (BBG)
CME is looking into launching rare earth futures. (RT)
US colleges took in $5B from foreign sources last year. (BBG)

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

Kraft Heinz ($30B listed) has officially halted plans to split the company.
Dajia Insurance Group wants to sell the Waldorf Astoria in NYC, which just finished a $6B renovation (acquired for $2B).
Icertis is exploring a sale at a $5B valuation.
Baker Hughes is looking to sell Waygate Technologies for $1.5B.

Venture Flow

Apptronik (humanoid robots) raised a massive $935M Series A at a $5.3B valuation from Google, Mercedes, and B Capital.
Inertia Enterprises (fusion energy) raised a $450M Series A led by Bessemer Venture Partners.
Olix (AI chips) raised $220M at a $1B valuation led by Hummingbird Ventures.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

Solv Energy raised $512M in an IPO at a $5B valuation.
Fidelidade is looking at a Portugal IPO at a $3.6B+ valuation.
STACK Infrastructure (owned by Blue Owl Capital) is seeking a $2.1B loan.
Pershing Square (Bill Ackman) took a $2B stake in Meta while exiting Nike, Chipotle, and Hilton.
Goldi Solar is weighing a $350M IPO in India.
Metaplanet is raising $137M to pay debt and buy more Bitcoin.

The Debt Desk

Slovakia saw huge demand ($10.2B in orders) for a $2.4B bond sale.
Bolivia is talking to the IMF for $3.3B.
China sold $2B of yuan bonds in Hong Kong.

Distress Signals

Ukrainian Naftogaz is talking restructuring on an $825M bond amidst attacks on its assets.

Fresh Capital

Blackstone folded its hedge fund seeder unit into its $60B hedge fund business.
Blue Owl raised $3B for its strategic equity fund.

Crypto Corner

The risk of 24/7 Bitcoin trading is spiking while traditional markets sleep.
JPMorgan is actually bullish on crypto for the remainder of the year.
The Galaxy CEO thinks crypto is heading for "much lower returns" from here.
Drug cartels are increasingly shifting their money laundering ops to crypto.
Provenance Blockchain just hit an all-time high TVL of $1.2B.

Today’s Meme Pick

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