THE ART OF THE ARCTIC DEAL

Good morning,

President-elect Trump is eyeing Greenland again. After floating the idea years ago, he recently stated "we have to have it." It is a bold geopolitical play that frames the Arctic as the next frontier for resources and security. Whether Denmark is willing to sell is a different story entirely.

Meanwhile, Wall Street is grinding through the holidays. Warner Bros. Discovery is at the center of a massive bidding war, and M&A volumes are soaring. The Fed is also charting its own course, set to diverge from global central banks on rate policy next year.

Getting started.

The Pulse

Markets

U.S. stocks advanced yesterday on renewed AI optimism.
- The S&P 500 rose for a third straight day near all-time highs.
- The index is set for its longest monthly winning streak since 2018.
Canada's TSX index hit a fresh all-time high.
The MSCI China index is down 7.5% from September.
- However, the index is still up 30% year-to-date as part of a broad Asia and Emerging Markets rally.
The India 10-year yield rose to 6.68%, hitting a nine-month high.
Gold and silver hit fresh all-time highs.
- Copper also hit a fresh all-time high after gaining 36% in its best year since 2009.
The dollar is down 9% year-to-date.

Earnings

See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

U.S. recession odds collapse from 66% to 1%, with little risk priced in for next year (Polymarket)

Headline Hunt

Trump says "we have to have" Greenland (BBG)
A contrarian energy bet is set to become the most profitable PE deal ever (WSJ)
The WBD deal and a hot M&A market have bankers working through the holidays (RT)
European IPO hopefuls are rethinking listing abroad (BBG)
European banks are turning to PE for M&A without tears (FT)
Bankers say the M&A boom has room to run after the second-best year ever (BBG)
A weak dollar is expected to persist amid Fed and global rate policy divergence (RT)
A stock surge and FX gains fuel 2026 investor optimism for Asia (BBG)
U.S. investment banking market share in Europe is near an all-time high (RT)
Japan eyes a $7T household savings pile for fresh bond demand (RT)
Apollo cuts risk and stockpiles cash in preparation for market turmoil (FT)
Hedge funds are shorting healthcare amid expiring ACA subsidies (RT)
State Street's private credit ETF lags behind in the ETF boom (IN)
HSBC hired an ex-Citigroup exec who clashed with Andy Sieg (FT)
A debt binge in Mexico made Pemex the best bond in LatAm with a 24% year-to-date gain (BBG)
CME and FanDuel launched prediction markets in five U.S. states (RT)
The FDA approved Novo Nordisk's first-ever GLP-1 pill for obesity (CNBC)
The U.S. halted all offshore wind projects (WSJ)
A PE fraudster named Schneider seeks clemency amid Trump's pardon of a peer (WSJ)

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

Larry Ellison will personally guarantee $40.4B in equity for Paramount's $108B hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery. Paramount also raised its regulatory breakup fee to $5.8B.
Eli Lilly is exploring a takeover of French biotech Abivax, which is listed at $10B.
Activist Trian and General Catalyst will acquire asset manager Janus Henderson in a $7.4B all-cash deal.
Cintas offered to acquire smaller peer UniFirst for $5.2B in cash, continuing a four-year pursuit.
Alphabet agreed to buy clean energy developer Intersect Power from TPG for $4.75B in cash plus debt.
Harbour Energy agreed to acquire U.S. firm LLOG Exploration in a $3.2B cash-and-stock deal.
Sandbrook Capital and Blackstone Credit & Insurance will acquire United Utility Services from Bernhard Capital Partners for $1B including debt.
Integrated Power Services, backed by Searchlight Capital, agreed to buy TechPro Power Group for $350M.
Samsung Biologics will acquire the U.S. production facility Human Genome Sciences from GSK for $280M.
Fortis Healthcare will acquire People Tree Hospital in South India for $48M.
Coinbase will buy prediction markets startup The Clearing Company in its tenth acquisition this year.

Venture Flow

Industrial AI startup Kargo raised a $42M Series B led by Avenir.
Truemed raised a $34M Series A led by a16z to unlock HSA/FSA dollars for preventive health.
ZeroPhase, a defense tech startup, raised a $6.8M seed round led by BlueYard Capital.
AI legal-writing startup BriefCatch raised a $6M Series A led by Full In.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

AI chip maker Cerebras Systems is preparing to re-file for an IPO with an $8B valuation.
Chinese AI chip maker Biren Technology is seeking to raise $625M in a Hong Kong IPO.
Small satellite launch firm Starfighters Space raised $40M in an IPO.

The Debt Desk

Netflix raised $25B from Wells Fargo, BNP Paribas, and HSBC to refinance part of its bridge loan for the Warner Bros. Discovery deal.
ETHZilla, backed by Thiel, sold $75M of Ether to pay down debt.

SPAC Deals

Battery tech firm Factorial Energy will merge with Cartesian Growth Corporation III at a $1.1B valuation.

Bankruptcy Watch

Distressed Chinese developer Vanke avoided default after creditors approved extending the grace period on its $284M bond.
Luxury retailer Saks Global is considering bankruptcy ahead of a debt payment exceeding $100M due at month-end.
Swedish landlord SBB expects its credit rating to return to CCC after S&P cut it to "selective default" over a bond repurchase.
Lease-to-own provider FlexShopper filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy with a bid from peer Snap Finance.

Fresh Capital

IIFL Capital Services, backed by Fairfax, plans to raise $450M in private credit to invest in mid-sized companies.
VE Partners raised $270M for its fifth flagship fund focused on the Benelux region.

Crypto Corner

Strategy bolstered cash reserves to $2.2B and paused Bitcoin purchases.
Binance allowed suspicious accounts to operate even after the 2023 U.S. plea agreement.

Today’s Meme Pick

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