THE BONDI TOP

You know we have reached a strange moment in the cycle when the Attorney General accidentally calls the top.

THE BONDI TOP

Good afternoon,

You know we have reached a strange moment in the cycle when the Attorney General accidentally calls the top. AG Pam Bondi went on a televised tear about the stock market yesterday during a Congressional hearing on the Epstein files, and the indices immediately decided to take a nose dive.

Traders are already coining it the "Bondi Top." It’s a joke, until it isn’t. When political figures start conflating legal grievances with market valuations on live TV, the algorithmic sentiment traders get spooked.

The result was a swift sell-off that wiped out gains for the week. It’s a good reminder that in a market priced for perfection, even the strangest catalyst can trigger a correction.

Getting started.

The Pulse

As of 02/12/2026 market close.
As of 02/12/2026 market close.

Markets

  • US equities took a hit yesterday as the "AI existential threat" narrative started pricing into broader sectors.
  • The S&P 500 dropped for the third consecutive day, slipping into negative territory for the year.
  • Sugar prices collapsed to post-Covid lows - the "Ozempic effect" on consumption is getting real.

Earnings

  • SoftBank crushed estimates with a massive $4.2B unrealized gain on its OpenAI stake and a $2.4B win from the Vision Fund. (CNBC)
  • This week's lineup:
    • Friday: Moderna, Wendy's.
  • See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

Screenshot of a Polymarket prediction

Headline Hunt

  • AG Bondi claims the stock rally is a response to her Epstein questioning. (CNBC)
  • The US labor market is stabilizing, though housing remains stuck in neutral. (RT)
  • Tech IPOs are getting overshadowed by the looming $1T wave of debt sales. (CNBC)
  • Alphabet issued a 100-year bond, raising eyebrows about long-term AI credit risk. (CNBC)
  • Four EY partners resigned after violating independence rules. (FT)
  • Spotify says its developers haven't written raw code since December thanks to AI. (TC)
  • Polymarket opened a free grocery store in NYC. (BBG)
  • Hermès CEO Axel Dumas labeled Jeffrey Epstein a "financial predator." (RT)
  • The US is ending the immigration enforcement blitz in Minnesota. (BBG)

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

  • Toyota Group is sticking to its guns, extending the $35B tender offer for Toyota Industries despite falling short of the shareholder vote threshold. Activist Elliott is fighting it.
  • Mercedes-Benz is offloading a stake in Daimler Truck worth $14.2B.
  • Blackstone and EQT are picking up waste manager Urbaser from Platinum Equity for $6.6B.
  • Mercuria bought back a 4.99% stake from Chinese state fund CNIC.

Venture Flow

  • Anthropic secured a massive $30B Series D at a $380B valuation. Investors include ICONIQ, Dragoneer, Founders Fund, and MGX.
  • Opaque Systems raised $24M Series B at a $300M valuation led by Walden Catalyst.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Palo Alto Networks ($113B market cap) is planning a dual listing in Israel.
  • SoftBank sold $3.5B worth of T-Mobile shares to fund its AI push.
  • PayPay (SoftBank-backed) filed for a US IPO to raise $2B at a $10B valuation.

The Debt Desk

  • SoftBank loaded up on another $27B in debt to fuel the OpenAI bet.
  • Tract Capital sold $3.8B in junk bonds to build a data center for Nvidia.
  • Chicago is selling $1B in high-yield munis.
  • Republic of Congo is planning a eurobond sale.

Fresh Capital

  • Japan and the US are deploying capital from Japan's massive $550B investment vehicle.

Crypto Corner

  • Coinbase swung to a $667M loss as revenue dragged.
  • Binance finalized its $1B SAFU reserve conversion.
  • Ark Invest bought Bullish stock for the ninth straight day.
  • Bitcoin treasuries added $3.5B in January.
  • Gen Z is flirting with crypto to pay for Valentine’s dates.

Today’s Meme Pick

— (@)
— (@)
— (@)

🤝 Partner with us: Looking to align your brand with a community of driven professionals? We are currently accepting inquiries for strategic sponsorships and collaborations. Reach out to discuss how we can create value together.

📧 Start your own publication: Ready to turn your insights into a newsletter? If you have the ideas but need the right tools, we suggest beehiiv as the best platform to build and scale your audience.

Read more