THE BULLS DON'T CARE

The market has officially decoupled from reality.

THE BULLS DON'T CARE

Good afternoon,

The market has officially decoupled from reality. Jerome Powell is reportedly under federal criminal investigation - a headline that should theoretically tank the indices. Instead, the S&P 500 and Dow just hit fresh all-time highs.

Investors are betting that chaos in Washington won't stop the earnings train. Even with rate cut expectations slashed to just two for 2026, the bid for equities remains relentless. It is a high-stakes game of chicken between legal risk and liquidity, and for now, the bulls aren't blinking.

Getting started.

The Pulse

As of 1/9/2026 market close.

Markets

  • U.S. stocks advanced on Friday as investors digested moderate jobs data and Trump's $200B mortgage bond push.
    • The S&P 500 and Dow hit fresh all-time highs.
    • Housing-linked stocks surged.
    • Apple fell for an eighth consecutive day, marking its worst losing streak since 1991.
  • Europe's Stoxx 600 hit a fresh all-time high.
  • The U.S. 2Y-10Y yield spread hit a nine-month high.
    • Traders slashed all January rate cut bets. They are now pricing in just two 25 bps cuts for 2026, with the first not expected until July.
  • Gold hit a fresh all-time high.

Earnings

  • This week's lineup:
    • Tuesday: JPMorgan, Delta Airlines
    • Wednesday: Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Bank of America
    • Thursday: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley
  • See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

Headline Hunt

  • The U.S. launched a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell (CNBC)
  • The U.S. may lift more Venezuela sanctions next week (RT)
  • Banks are competing for the mandate on the $200B Rio Tinto-Glencore merger (RT)
  • The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.4% on moderate jobs growth (CNBC)
  • Trump tweeted unpublished jobs data twelve hours before the official release (BBG)
  • The "Mag 7" stock dominance is showing signs of cracking (BBG)
  • JPMorgan sees rising risks driving an M&A surge (RT)
  • Four law firms controlled 60% of M&A principal deal value in 2025 (LW)
  • Emerging Market sovereign debt sales hit a record $44B year-to-date (BBG)
  • Gold investors remain bullish after a historic 2025 (BBG)
  • Apollo is searching for a new Europe head (FT)
  • KKR COO Ryan Stork has stepped down (BBG)
  • Nvidia hired its first-ever CMO (WSJ)
  • "Target schools" are back on top for recruiters (WSJ)
  • Trump called for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates (WSJ)

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

  • I Squared Capital dropped its $4B pursuit of Ströer's advertising business.
  • Allegiant agreed to acquire Sun Country in a $1.5B deal.
  • Akaysha Energy is considering selling a minority stake at a $1.0B valuation.

Venture Flow

  • Lambda is raising a $350M round led by Mubadala.
  • Rain raised a $250M Series C at a $1.95B valuation led by ICONIQ.
  • Torq raised a $140M Series D at a $1.2B valuation led by Merlin Ventures.
  • Corgi raised $108M in seed and Series A funding led by Y Combinator and others.
  • bit.bio raised a $50M Series C led by M&G Investments.
  • Blackbird.AI secured a $28M round.
  • Qualinx raised a $23M round led by Invest-NL.
  • Canopy raised a $22M Series B co-led by 111° West and ACME.
  • Paid.ai raised a $21.6M seed round.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Inovance ($30B market cap) is considering a dual listing in Hong Kong.
  • Advent picked banks for a $15B U.S. IPO of Innio.
  • Waipu.TV selected banks for a $1.8B IPO in Germany.
  • Vincorion is seeking to raise over $350M at a $1.75B valuation.
  • Aktis raised $318M at a $1.4B valuation in its IPO.
  • Odido is considering a $1.2B IPO.
  • Knowledge Atlas Technology raised $560M in its Hong Kong IPO.

Bankruptcy Watch

  • A creditor committee is ready to talk restructuring on $60B of defaulted Venezuela bonds.
  • Saks is set to file for Chapter 11.
  • Summit Properties acquired Pinnacle's bankrupt NYC portfolio for $451M.
  • Senegal bonds surged after ruling out a restructuring.

Fresh Capital

  • Monroe Capital raised $6.1B for a new private credit fund.
  • Lindsay Goldberg raised $4.9B for its sixth flagship fund.
  • Banner Ridge raised $4.2B for secondaries.
  • Harvey Capital raised $1.8B for a debut hedge fund.
  • Parthenon Capital is raising a $1.7B continuation vehicle for KBRA.
  • Onex raised a $1.6B continuation vehicle for multiple assets.
  • Lux Capital raised $1.5B for science and defense.
  • CIC sold $1B worth of PE stakes to Ardian.
  • Eir Partners raised $1.0B for its third fund.
  • Guidepost raised $520M for its fourth fund.
  • Goldman Sachs raised $350M for European private credit.

Crypto Corner

  • BNY launched tokenized deposits.
  • Morgan Stanley filed for Bitcoin and Solana ETFs.

Today’s Meme Pick

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