THE CHIP GAME JUST CHANGED

The market just got a wake-up call.

THE CHIP GAME JUST CHANGED

Good afternoon,

The market just got a wake-up call. Donald Trump surprised everyone with his Fed Chair pick, while Elon Musk is officially pivoting Tesla toward physical AI. Meanwhile, the U.S. government has entered a partial shutdown, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already jittery week.

But the real story is in the data centers. Sandisk has blown past earnings estimates, fueling a 1,500% year-over-year rally that makes it clear: storage is the new silicon gold.

On the flip side, the metals rally came to a screeching halt, and the final tranche of the Epstein files dropped. It’s a chaotic start to February, but the signal amidst the noise is clear - volatility is back.

Getting started.

The Pulse

As of 1/30/2026 market close.
As of 1/30/2026 market close.

Markets

  • U.S. stocks took a hit on Friday. Investors are still digesting the surprise Fed pick and a mixed bag of earnings.
  • Global indices are seeing red. Canada's TSX dropped 3.3% (worst day since last April), Saudi's Tadawul fell 1.9%, and South Africa's JSE tumbled 4.2%.
  • Emerging markets are the outlier here. A weak dollar has pushed indices in Turkey, Brazil, and South Africa up over 10% YTD.
  • China's 30-year yield is falling again. It's heading toward record lows as bank demand recovers and the stock rally cools off.
  • Precious metals got crushed. Gold and silver plunged 11% and 30% respectively - their worst day since 1980, erasing over $5T in value.
  • The Dollar had its best day since May, climbing 1%.
  • Bitcoin is struggling. It dipped below $80k for the first time since April and posted its longest monthly losing streak since 2018.

Earnings

  • American Express missed on earnings. Revenue beat expectations, but the costs of refreshing the Platinum card ate into profits (WSJ).
  • Sandisk obliterated Q2 estimates. Data center demand is booming, and the stock is now up 1,500% YoY (CNBC).
  • Verizon is growing again. Strong subscriber gains led to a beat on both top and bottom lines (WSJ).
  • This week's lineup:
    • Today: Walt Disney
    • Tuesday: AMD, PepsiCo, PayPal
    • Wednesday: Alphabet, Uber, Novo Nordisk
    • Thursday: Amazon, Shell, Reddit, Roblox
    • Friday: Toyota
  • See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

  • The clock matters less than the consequences. (Polymarket)

Headline Hunt

  • The U.S. government has partially shut down (WSJ)
  • The U.S. released the final Epstein files (WSJ)
  • Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair (CNBC)
  • Crowded trades are buckling in a warning for 2026 (BBG)
  • Funds have slashed bullish silver bets to two-year lows (BBG)
  • BlackRock and PIMCO are warning of inflation risks (BBG)
  • The AI boom is causing a loan meltdown for software firms (BBG)
  • China is running a record budget deficit (BBG)
  • Hedge fund correlation with stocks is sparking fear (FT)
  • Regulators are warning Hong Kong firms over poor IPO filings (BBG)
  • UK pensions are piling into private equity (BBG)
  • Danish pensions are under pressure to cut U.S. exposure (FT)
  • India is seeking diaspora capital as foreign funds exit (BBG)
  • Tesla is ending Model S production (WSJ)
  • SpaceX wants to build data centers in space (BBG)
  • AI researchers are drowning in 'slop' (FT)
  • The U.S. released the final Epstein files (WSJ)

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

  • A consortium led by KKR is close to buying ST Telemedia Global Data Centers in a deal valuing the firm at over $10B.
  • Architect Capital is in talks to take a majority stake in OnlyFans at a $3.5B valuation.
  • Permira has agreed to buy a minority stake in Carne, an asset management platform, at a $1.7B valuation.
  • Apax Partners has offered to take Pinewood Technologies private in a $792M deal.
  • France has blocked EQT's $656M acquisition of Eutelsat's antenna assets.
  • Ford and Xiaomi are discussing a JV to manufacture EVs in the U.S.

Venture Flow

  • Nvidia has paused its investment in OpenAI's $100B round due to unresolved doubts.
  • Waymo is looking to raise $16B at a $110B valuation from Alphabet, Sequoia, and others.
  • OSL Group raised $200M for its stablecoin and payments platform.

The Debt Desk

  • India plans to issue a massive $187B in bonds this year.
  • China is selling $29B in special bonds to recapitalize state-owned insurers like China Life.
  • Adani Group is seeking $10B in local-currency debt.
  • Banks are prepping a $7.9B debt sale for CD&R's buyout of Sealed Air.
  • Deutsche Bank and others are stuck with $1.2B of hung debt from the Conga/PROS deal.
  • Jersey Mike's Subs sold $760M of bonds ahead of a planned IPO.
  • AC Milan secured $700M in new debt to refinance a vendor loan.

Bankruptcy Watch

  • Banco de Brasilia faces a $1B hole from transactions with the failed Banco Master.
  • Wrexham AFC had $6.3M frozen in the collapse of Argentex.

Fresh Capital

  • LBP Asset Management raised $595M for its infrastructure debt climate fund.
  • South Park Commons is raising $500M for its "anti-accelerator" fund.
  • TrueBridge Capital raised $230M for its debut VC secondaries fund.

Crypto

  • Jamie Dimon and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong had a tense exchange at WEF.
  • Abu Dhabi royal bought $500M stake in Trump family's crypto venture days before Trump's inauguration.
  • Morgan Stanley mapped seven political shifts investors should watch this year, from Trump’s tariff agenda and fiscal stress to Fed independence and global election risk, and how each could ripple through bonds, currencies, and equities.
  • WSJ just published an investor’s guide to the boom and bust in gold and silver, explaining who’s really driving the move above 5,000 dollars an ounce and why professionals are much more cautious than retail buyers. Read it here.

Today’s Meme Pick

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