THE DAY CLAUDE BROKE WALL STREET

Wall Street’s favorite trades just hit a wall.

THE DAY CLAUDE BROKE WALL STREET

Good afternoon,

Wall Street’s favorite trades just hit a wall. From tech to metals to Bitcoin, everything collapsed. The catalyst wasn't a rate hike or a geopolitical crisis. It was a Claude update.

If a single AI update has the power to wreck the economy, you’d hope it has the capacity to repair it.

Getting started.

The Pulse

As of 2/5/2026 market close.
As of 2/5/2026 market close.

Markets

  • US stocks kept sliding as bad jobs data added fuel to the software-led fire.
    • The S&P 500 has flipped negative for the year.
    • The S&P 500 Software & Services index is down 18% YTD, wiping out $1T in value in a single week.
  • The Dollar climbed to a two-week high.
  • The Pound dropped 0.7% amid threats to PM Starmer's leadership.
  • Silver gave back its massive 62% YTD gain, with volatility hitting 46-year highs.
  • Bitcoin fell to its lowest level since October 2024.

Earnings

  • Amazon missed on earnings but beat on revenue thanks to 24% growth in AWS; the company plans a massive $200B in capital expenditures this year (CNBC)
  • Strategy beat revenue estimates but had to swallow a $12B unrealized loss on its Bitcoin holdings (WSJ)
  • This week's lineup:
    • Today: Toyota
  • See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

Headline Hunt

  • The Clintons want Epstein testimony to happen in the public eye (CNBC)
  • Bessent won't promise that Trump won't sue Kevin Warsh over policy decisions (RT)
  • The US job market is in its worst shape since the Great Recession (BBG)
  • Wall Street's favorite trades are collapsing across the board (BBG)
  • Anthropic's new AI tool sparked a selloff from software to the broader market (BBG)
  • Dip-buyers have vanished as the software selloff slams stocks (RT)
  • Stock-picking hedge funds just had their worst day in a year (RT)
  • Short sellers increased their software bets after banking $24B in profits (CNBC)
  • Options traders are piling into tech hedges after the software rout (BBG)
  • Hedge funds are closing to new cash just as LPs rush to invest (BBG)
  • Oracle's blockbuster bond sale could trigger a rush of AI borrowing (BBG)
  • Vanguard poached ten directors from BlackRock and Goldman (BBG)

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

  • Mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore scrapped their massive $260B merger plans.
  • Canada's CPPIB and OMERS are looking to unload their 33% stakes in UK ports operator Associated British Ports at a valuation over $13.6B.
  • KKR agreed to buy sports PE firm Arctos Partners in a cash-and-stock deal worth $1.4B.

Venture Flow

  • Anthropic is discussing selling secondary shares and raising $20B at a staggering $350B valuation.
  • Fundamental, a structured-data AI startup, launched from stealth with a $255M seed and Series A led by Oak HC/FT, Valor, Battery, and Salesforce Ventures.
  • Goodfire, an AI interpretability lab, raised a $150M Series B at a $1.25B valuation led by B Capital.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Barrick Mining plans to spin off its North American gold assets at a potential $60B valuation.
  • Visma, the Hg-backed software group, may delay its $22B London IPO due to the software selloff.
  • Syngenta, owned by China's Sinochem, is hiring banks for a potential $10B Hong Kong IPO.

The Debt Desk

  • Goldman Sachs is prepping $3.75B in financing to back Arclin's acquisition of DuPont's Aramids business.
  • South Korea sold $3B of dollar bonds to shore up FX reserves.
  • BGH Capital secured a $975M private credit loan from Goldman, Blackstone, and Apollo for its $1.6B LBO of Aspen's APAC business.

Fresh Capital

  • Ardian raised over $5.2B for its ninth infrastructure secondaries fund.
  • Clearlake Capital is doubling the GP commitment to its eighth fund to $600M while lowering the target size to $14.2B to buy more time.
  • Trafigura is discussing a credit fund JV with ITG to finance commodity deals.

Today’s Meme Pick

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