THE GLOVES ARE OFF

It’s a red sea out there.

THE GLOVES ARE OFF

Good afternoon,

It’s a red sea out there. Escalating tensions between the US, Greenland, and Europe are officially rattling the cage, sending US stocks tumbling and erasing the S&P 500's year-to-date gains. But the real drama is happening in the bond market.

Global yields are spiking fast. Japan’s 40-year yield just topped 4% for the first time ever, and a major Danish pension fund is heading for the exit on US Treasuries. The traditional "safe havens" aren’t feeling very safe right now.

Meanwhile, the corporate wheels keep turning. Netflix is throwing an all-cash offer at Warner Bros. Discovery, and BofA is being pickier than a velvet rope bouncer, hiring just 1% of its applicant pool.

Getting started.

The Pulse

As of 1/20/2026 market close.
As of 1/20/2026 market close.

Markets

  • US stocks took a nose dive yesterday as investors panic over the US-Greenland-Europe standoff.
    • All three major indexes clocked their worst day since October.
    • The S&P 500 gave back every cent of its YTD gains.
  • Global stocks followed suit, dropping across the board.
  • Sovereign yields are climbing after a global selloff sparked by geopolitical fear and fiscal trouble in Japan.
    • Long-dated US yields touched a four-month high.
    • UK 30-year yields jumped 10 bps to 5.25%—the highest debt yield in the G7.
    • Japan 30-year yields rose the most they have since 2003.
  • Long-dated muni yields rose 7 bps (the most since July) due to supply gluts and war jitters.
  • Gold surged to an all-time high.

Earnings

  • Netflix beat Q4 estimates with 325 million subscribers and doubling ad revenue. They also revised their $83B bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (CNBC)
  • This week's lineup:
    • Today: Johnson & Johnson, Charles Schwab
    • Thursday: Intel, Capital One, P&G
    • Friday: Booz Allen Hamilton
  • See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

Headline Hunt

  • US-Greenland tensions rattled global markets ahead of Davos. (WSJ)
  • Danish pension AkademikerPension will exit US Treasuries. (BBG)
  • Bessent spoke with Japan officials after a global bond selloff. (BBG)
  • Trump doubts Greenland threats will spoil US-Europe trade deal. (BBG)
  • Global fund managers are the most bullish since July 2021. (RT)
  • Global stocks trounced US in chaotic 2025. (BBG)
  • Healthcare firms are choosing private credit over bank debt. (BBG)
  • SEA EM stocks are set for the strongest foreign inflows since 2024. (BBG)
  • Activist investors are eyeing more corporate breakups this year. (RT)
  • Deal-starved SPACs flood market following bonanza year. (BBG)
  • Secondaries dry powder is set to rise as LPs pile in. (AW)
  • FOFs doing secondaries are adding conflict on top of conflict. (PB)
  • US tariffs are starting to 'creep' into consumer prices. (CNBC)
  • Saudi banks are borrowing abroad at the fastest pace ever. (FT)
  • BofA will award $1B in equity bonuses to all non-exec employees. (RT)
  • BofA hired just 1% of grads from 200k applicant pool. (YH)
  • Delaware supreme court sided with Moelis over shareholder agreement. (RT)
  • Danish lawmaker told Trump to 'f*ck off' during meeting. (NYP)
  • Trump seeks 'decisive' options for Iran as assets move into Middle East. (WSJ)

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

  • Netflix has amended its massive $83B bid for Warner Bros. Discovery's studio and streaming business to an all-cash offer, with WBD's cable assets set to be spun off.
  • German exchange operator Deutsche Boerse is nearing an acquisition of European fund distribution platform Allfunds in a $6.2B cash-and-stock deal at an 11% premium.
  • Blackstone is weighing a $5B sale of Gulf of America driller Beacon Offshore Energy.
  • Advent is preparing a $3.5B sale of Italian industrial confectioner Irca.
  • Bain Capital made a binding offer for Japanese personal-care group FineToday, which was last valued at $1.1B in November during a failed IPO.
  • PE firm TowerBrook agreed to acquire a majority stake in insurance claims manager MSA Mizar for $470M, including debt.
  • Hedge fund Elliott invested several hundred million dollars in Cerberus-owned hypersonic-flight company Stratolaunch.
  • China Tourism Group Duty Free plans to acquire LVMH's DFS travel retail business in Hong Kong and Macau.

Venture Flow

  • Drone delivery startup Zipline raised a $600M round at a $7.6B valuation led by Valor Equity Partners.
  • Humans&, a human-centric AI startup led by ex-OpenAI, Google, and xAI scientists, raised a $480M seed round at a $4.5B valuation from SV Angel, co-founder Georges Harik, Nvidia, Jeff Bezos, GV, and others.
  • AI inference startup Baseten raised a $300M round at a $5B valuation from IVP, CapitalG, and Nvidia.
  • DealHub.io, an AI-powered revenue execution and CPQ platform, raised a $100M growth round led by Riverwood Capital.
  • Ethernovia, a developer of Ethernet-based packet processors for autonomous and physical-AI systems, raised a $90M Series B led by Maverick Silicon.
  • Indian AI vibe-coding startup Emergent raised a $70M Series B at a $300M valuation co-led by SoftBank Vision Fund 2 and Khosla Ventures.
  • LatAm payments infrastructure startup Pomelo raised a $55M Series C co-led by Kaszek and Insight Partners.
  • Legal AI startup Ivo raised a $55M Series B at a $355M valuation round led by Blackbird.
  • Jetson, a home electrification startup, raised a $50M Series A led by Eclipse.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • European defense giant Czechoslovak Group is set to raise $3.9B at a $29B valuation in Amsterdam in what could be the largest defense IPO ever.
  • Walmart and Microsoft-backed Indian payments fintech PhonePe received regulatory approval for an India IPO.
  • Honeywell-backed quantum computing firm Quantinuum is seeking to raise $1.5B at a $15B-$20B valuation in an IPO.
  • Indian property developer K Raheja is weighing an India IPO that could raise $700M at a $7B valuation.
  • Brazilian fintech PicPay is seeking to raise $400M at a $2.5B valuation in a US IPO, the first for a Brazilian firm in four years.

The Debt Desk

  • Saudi Arabia has sold over $20B in international bonds year-to-date.
  • Spain raised $17.6B in a syndicated bond sale that saw a record $170B in demand.
  • Netflix secured $8.2B in additional bank debt—bringing its bridge financing to $42.2B for its revised $83B all-cash offer for Warner Bros. Discovery.
  • China's Jiangxi Copper plans to sell $3.6B of bonds to fund a mining expansion.
  • PE firm Lone Star Funds is marketing $500M in junk debt to fund its $3.8B LBO of equipment maker Hillenbrand, as part of a bigger $3.1B debt package.
  • Philippines sold $2.75B of dollar bonds despite volatility.

SPAC Deals

  • StoreDot will merge with Andretti Acquisition Corp. II in an $880M deal.

Bankruptcy Watch

  • Hedge fund GoldenTree will buy $200M of the $1B DIP financing package for bankrupt luxury retailer ‌Saks

Crypto Corner

  • Crypto industry turns against US bill it had pushed to regulate digital assets.

Today’s Meme Pick

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