THE GREENLAND THAW

The market finally got the signal it was waiting for, and it came from the most unlikely place: Greenland.

THE GREENLAND THAW

Good afternoon,

The market finally got the signal it was waiting for, and it came from the most unlikely place: Greenland. While the headlines have been dominated by tariffs and trade wars, the U.S. paused planned levies on Europe after announcing a framework deal with the icy island territory. It’s a classic de-escalation move disguised as a real estate negotiation and Wall Street loved it.

Meanwhile, the "Trump Trade" is evolving. Bessent is working the phones to calm fears about Treasury selloffs, and corporate America is navigating the new normal. Deutsche Bank’s CEO even had to make a personal apology call after an analyst’s report ruffled feathers in Washington. It’s messy, but the rails are holding.

Bottom line: The tariff pause sparked a relief rally. Investors are betting that pragmatism is quietly winning the war against protectionism, at least for this week.

Getting started.

The Pulse

As of 1/21/2026 market close.

Markets

  • US stocks staged a massive rally, erasing Tuesday’s losses on the heels of the Greenland framework deal.
    • The S&P 500 clocked its best single-day performance since November.
    • Small-caps (Russell 2000) surged to a fresh All-Time High.
  • India corporate spreads have widened to their highest levels in five years.

Earnings

  • This week's lineup:
    • Today: Intel, Capital One, P&G, GE Aerospace.
    • Friday: Booz Allen Hamilton.
  • See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

Headline Hunt

  • European leaders at Davos remain firm while CEOs push for pragmatism. (RT)
  • The US has paused tariffs on Europe following the Greenland framework agreement. (WSJ)
  • The President is reportedly down to a single finalist for the Fed Chair role. (CNBC)
  • Deutsche Bank’s CEO personally called Bessent to distance the firm from a critical analyst report on Greenland. (RT)
  • Jamie Dimon is warning that credit card rate caps would trigger an "economic disaster." (RT)
  • Liquidity in the Japan bond market has deteriorated to record lows amid a historic rout. (BBG)
  • Netflix co-CEOs are defending their $83B bid for Warner Bros as shares slide. (RT)
  • JPMorgan and Allen & Co. have already racked up $180M in fees from the Warner Bros deal. (RT)
  • TD has poached six bankers from rivals to fuel a push into debt capital markets. (RT)
  • Apple is overhauling Siri to function as a built-in chatbot. (BBG)
  • Renewable energy generation has overtaken fossil fuels in the EU for the first time. (BBG)
  • Palantir's CEO claims AI will eventually make mass immigration obsolete. (BBG)

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

  • Deutsche Boerse has agreed to buy European fund platform Allfunds in a cash-and-stock deal valued at $6.2B.
  • Industrial Development Corporation has restarted talks to buy ArcelorMittal’s South African operations after a previous $525M proposal fell through.

Venture Flow

  • OpenEvidence, an AI tool for doctors, secured a $250M Series D co-led by Thrive Capital and DST at a $12B valuation.
  • Upscale AI raised a $200M Series A led by Tiger Global and others, pushing its valuation over $1B.
  • Nasdaq Private Market raised a $38M Series C led by Cerity Partners.
  • Logical Intelligence is looking to raise fresh capital at a valuation between $1B and $2B.
  • BERO, the non-alcoholic beer brand from Tom Holland, secured investment from Paine Schwartz at a valuation over $100M.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • KNDS has tapped banks including BofA and Goldman Sachs for a dual-listing IPO eyeing a $29B valuation.
  • Berkshire Hathaway wants to unload its stake in Kraft Heinz, which currently carries a $26B market cap.
  • L'Occitane is weighing a return to the public markets after being valued at $7B in 2024.

The Debt Desk

  • Hg is negotiating a $3B private credit loan with Goldman Sachs Alternatives and Blue Owl to back its buyout of OneStream.
  • Investindustrial is launching a $1.8B loan sale to fund its LBO of TreeHouse Foods.
  • Brookfield is in the market for a $1.7B loan backed by the IFC tower complex in Seoul.

Funds

  • QIA, the $600B Qatari sovereign wealth fund, is considering splitting its foreign and domestic portfolios.
  • Alecta has dumped approximately $11B in US Treasuries since the start of 2025.
  • MUFJ is aiming to double its alternatives assets to $10B by 2030.
  • Crescent Capital closed a $3.2B continuation vehicle led by Pantheon Ventures.
  • PGIM is looking to deploy $1B into the private credit secondary market.
  • Athvance Capital is seeking $600M to invest in under-commercialized European sports assets.

Crypto Corner

  • Trump's memecoin is down 94% from its peak.

Today’s Meme Pick

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