THE GREENLAND TRADE WAR

Trump is picking fights on all fronts.

THE GREENLAND TRADE WAR

Good afternoon,

Trump is picking fights on all fronts. He’s blasted Jamie Dimon, threatened to sue JPMorgan, and is now weaponizing tariffs against Europe in a bid to force a sale of Greenland. Meanwhile, Musk is chasing a massive $135B payout from OpenAI, and BlackRock's Rick Rieder is suddenly the name to watch for the next Fed Chair.

The markets are feeling the chill. US stocks were closed for MLK Day, but futures tanked as geopolitical stakes rose. Tech is taking a beating - software stocks are off to their worst start since 2022.

Confidence is cracking. CEO revenue optimism has hit a five-year low, and TCI just proved volatility pays, breaking Citadel’s record with nearly $19B in profits.

Getting started.

The Pulse

As of 1/16/2026 market close.

Markets

  • US markets stayed dark yesterday for MLK Day.
  • Traders spent the long weekend worrying about Trump's global politicking and the Fed succession race.
  • S&P and Nasdaq futures dropped 1% as the US-Europe standoff intensified.
  • Software names are crumbling on AI fears, marking their worst start to a year since 2022.
  • Europe's Stoxx 600 slid 1.2%, its worst session in two months.
  • Volatility in European natural gas just hit highs not seen since late 2023.
  • Canada's TSX managed to hit a new all-time high.
  • The Dollar slipped 0.4% against the euro.

Earnings

  • This week's lineup:
    • Today: Netflix, Interactive Brokers
    • Wednesday: Johnson & Johnson, Charles Schwab
    • Thursday: Intel, P&G
    • Friday: Booz Allen Hamilton
  • See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

Headline Hunt

  • TCI has officially broken Citadel's record with $18.9B in hedge fund profits. (BBG)
  • Europe is struggling with the idea of 'weaponizing' $10T of US assets. (BBG)
  • The US wants nations to pay $1B for a new 'Peace-as-a-Service' model. (CNBC)
  • Trump blasted Dimon and threatened to sue JPMorgan for 'debanking'. (BBG)
  • The US plans to hike tariffs on eight European nations until Greenland is sold. (CNBC)
  • BlackRock's bond chief Rick Rieder is gaining serious momentum for the Fed Chair spot. (BBG)
  • Trump is reportedly reluctant to nominate Kevin Hassett for the Fed role. (BBG)
  • China saw its GDP grow 5% last year thanks to an export boom. (CNBC)
  • A massive $7T cash pile in China is moving into stocks and gold. (BBG)
  • Volatility is pushing clients toward private markets in a 'new regime'. (FT)
  • Secondary deals in private markets hit a record $226B last year. (BBG)
  • Dealmakers expect more retail M&A and IPOs after last year's tariff chaos. (RT)
  • Equity funds just saw their largest weekly inflow since October. (RT)
  • Hedge funds have cut bullish silver bets to a two-year low. (BBG)
  • Hedge funds have boosted yen shorts by the most since 2015. (BBG)
  • CEO confidence in revenue has hit a five-year low. (RT)
  • German investments in the US were cut in half in 2025. (RT)
  • The SRT boom is offering a costly lifeline to banks shedding risky CRE debt. (BBG)
  • JPMorgan has formed a new advisory group focused on private capital. (WSJ)
  • OpenAI hit $20B in ARR in 2025. (TC)
  • Musk is seeking $135B in damages from OpenAI and Microsoft. (BBG)

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

  • Regulators rejected the massive $71.5B merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern, asking for a revised submission.
  • Elliott is pushing back on Toyota's $39B take-private offer for Toyota Industries, arguing it is still undervalued.
  • Shell and Mitsubishi are looking to sell their stakes in LNG Canada for a combined ~$23B.
  • The US gave Russian firm Lukoil more time to sell its $22B in sanctioned global assets, with Carlyle and Exxon among the bidders.
  • Zurich Insurance offered $10.3B to take Beazley private, a hefty 56% premium.
  • Hellman & Friedman is exploring a sale of Cordis for up to $10B.
  • Sunway made a $2.7B bid for rival IJM, though investors are worried about dilution.
  • Worthington Steel agreed to buy Kloeckner & Co. for $2.4B.
  • Henkel is in talks to buy Stahl from Wendel for $2.3B.
  • Micron signed a deal to buy a fabrication site in Taiwan for $1.8B.
  • Shareholders are weighing a sale of Salto Systems at a potential $1.2B valuation.
  • Diana Shipping is launching a proxy fight for Genco after its $890M bid was rejected.
  • FitzWalter Capital bumped its bid for Auction Technology Group to $660M.
  • Brava Energia bought offshore stakes from PETRONAS for $450M.
  • Google is chatting with Radiate about a JV for their fiber assets.

Venture Flow

  • Anthropic is seeking to raise a massive $25B round at a $350B valuation.
  • Clear Street raised a round at a $12B valuation ahead of its IPO.
  • ClickHouse secured a $400M Series D at a $15B valuation.
  • Mal raised a $230M seed round led by BlueFive Capital.
  • Noveon Magnetics pulled in a $215M Series C led by One Investment Management.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Czechoslovak Group may launch an IPO in Amsterdam at a $29B valuation.
  • Belron is eyeing a US or Amsterdam listing at a $28B valuation.
  • EG Group is prepping for a US IPO that could hit a $9B valuation.
  • Muyuan is testing the waters for a $1.5B listing in Hong Kong.
  • Kenya plans to raise $825M by listing Kenya Pipeline Co.

The Debt Desk

  • Covetrus is talking to private credit firms like Blue Owl to raise $2.5B.
  • Cable One is discussing a $1B debt package with Truist.

Bankruptcy Watch

  • Venezuela creditors are hiring advisors for a massive $60B debt restructuring.
  • Brightline skipped interest payments on $1.2B in muni bonds.
  • Summit Properties won approval for its $450M acquisition of a bankrupt portfolio.

Fresh Capital

  • CVC and AIG agreed to a $3.5B investing partnership.
  • CBRE Investment Management raised $1.6B for a secondaries fund.
  • Dolomite Capital raised seed funding to debut with $1.3B.

Crypto Corner

  • Bitcoin ETFs just saw their biggest inflows since October.

Today’s Meme Pick

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