THE IPO MARKET FINALLY WAKES UP

THE IPO MARKET FINALLY WAKES UP

Good morning,

The long-awaited jobs report is finally out, and frankly, it is a mess. The data is muddied enough to spark fresh economic fears and send stocks sliding for a third straight day. Meanwhile, President-elect Trump is set to interview Governor Chris Waller for the Fed Chair role, signaling the search is heating up.

But the real story is in the private markets. Medline just raised a staggering $6.3B in what is now the largest private equity IPO exit in history. It is a massive signal that the window for liquidity is officially open.

Getting started.

The Pulse

As of 12/16/2025 market close.

Markets

  • U.S. markets took a hit yesterday after that confusing jobs report rattled investor confidence.
    • The S&P 500 has now dropped for three consecutive days.
  • Emerging market assets also trended lower.
  • Oil prices are hovering near five-year lows, driven by optimism around a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.
  • The Hungarian forint is crushing it—up 21% year-to-date against the dollar and 7% against the euro, making it the top-performing emerging market currency of the year.

Earnings

  • This week's lineup:
    • Today: Micron, General Mills
    • Thursday: Accenture, Nike, FedEx.
    • Friday: Carnival
  • See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

  • The prediction markets shrugged off the jobs data completely. They are still forecasting more rate cuts in 2026 than either the Fed or the bond market currently expect (Polymarket)

Headline Hunt

  • The U.S. has paused its planned $40B tech-focused trade agreement with the UK (NYT)
  • Trump is scheduled to interview Fed Governor Chris Waller for the role of Fed Chair (WSJ)
  • Morgan Stanley is climbing the debt rankings as the go-to bank for the AI boom (BBG)
  • Morgan Stanley has also surpassed Goldman Sachs in the Asian equity capital markets league tables (BBG)
  • Assets in the shadow banking sector have topped $250 trillion (BBG)
  • Citadel is vacating a Chicago tower as the city considers a controversial new tax (BBG)
  • An executive at Carl Icahn's firm has sued Bausch + Lomb alleging anti-white discrimination (BBG)
  • Mark Delaney, the CIO of AustralianSuper, will step down next year (BBG)
  • The head of M&A at Shell has quit after the CEO blocked a potential bid for BP (FT)
  • Europe has reversed course on its planned ban of combustion engines (WSJ)

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

  • Warner Bros. Discovery intends to advise shareholders to reject a $108B hostile bid from Paramount Skydance after backer Affinity Partners exited the talks; they are backing a $72B bid from Netflix instead.
  • Chinese shipping giant Cosco is pushing for a controlling stake in the $23B Panama ports deal involving BlackRock and MSC, currently held by CK Hutchison.
  • Activist Kimmeridge Energy has offered to buy gas driller Ascent Resources, backed by Energy & Minerals Group, for $6B.
  • Holcim, a Swiss building materials firm, agreed to buy a majority stake in Peruvian peer Cementos Pacasmayo at a $1.5B valuation.
  • Affinity Equity Partners is weighing a sale of its stake in Plaza Premium Group at a $1B valuation.
  • Consortium Brand Partners, leading a group with Eldridge Industries, Bain Capital Credit, and Aurify Brands, is acquiring California Pizza Kitchen for under $300M.
  • Luckin Coffee, backed by Centurium Capital, is considering a bid for Nestle's Blue Bottle Coffee.
  • Petrobras is looking to buy a 49.9% stake in the Brazilian solar and battery unit of BP's Lightsource.
  • Shell has restarted efforts to sell its 37.5% stake in the German oil refinery PCK Schwedt.
  • Glencore has acquired the Quechua copper project in Peru from Pan Pacific Copper.
  • Sports streamer DAZN is in advanced talks to buy a majority stake in U.S. broadcaster Main Street Sports.

Venture Flow

  • OpenAI is in talks to raise $10B from Amazon at a valuation topping $500B.
  • Databricks raised a $4B Series L at a $134B valuation, led by Insight Partners, Fidelity, and JPMorgan Asset Management.
  • Boats Group, which runs online boat marketplaces, secured a $600M growth investment from CPPIB.
  • Last Energy, a nuclear startup, raised a $100M Series C led by the Astera Institute.
  • AI cybersecurity firm Adaptive Security raised an $81M Series B led by BCV.
  • Digantara, a space surveillance startup, raised a $50M Series B from investors including 360 ONE Asset and Peak XV Partners.
  • Echo, an AI container image provider, raised a $35M Series A led by N47.
  • DataLane, an identity graph startup, raised a $22.5M Series A led by Amplify Partners.
  • Sequence, an AI revenue startup, raised a $20M Series A led by 645 Ventures.
  • Vital Lyfe, a portable water startup, raised an $18M seed round led by Interlagos and General Catalyst.
  • Cold-chain platform Ember LifeSciences raised a $16.5M Series A led by Sea Court Capital.
  • Dux Security raised a $9M seed round led by Redpoint, TLV Partners, and Maple Capital.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Medline, backed by Blackstone, Carlyle, and Hellman & Friedman, raised $6.3B in an upsized IPO. It is the largest PE exit via IPO ever.
  • Japanese lender SBI Shinsei Bank raised $2.1B at an $8.5B valuation.
  • Chinese chipmaker MetaX raised $585M in a significantly oversubscribed China IPO.
  • Indian delivery firm Zepto is preparing to file for a $500M IPO in India.
  • Portable power firm ChEcoFlow Technology is eyeing a U.S. IPO to raise $300M.

The Debt Desk

  • Pharma giant Zoetis plans to raise $1.75B via a convertible bond sale.
  • Perimeter Solutions sold $550M of junk notes to fund its acquisition of Medical Manufacturing Technologies.

Bankruptcy Watch

  • First Brands founder Patrick James is fighting to dismiss a fraud lawsuit, claiming lenders pushed the company into bankruptcy.
  • Carlyle has lost over $100M on a loan to the now-bankrupt Roomba maker iRobot.
  • Spirit Airlines is discussing a merger with Frontier Airlines as it tries to exit Chapter 11 for the second time.

Fresh Capital

  • PIMCO raised over $7B for a strategy targeting insurance companies and wealthy individuals.
  • The private equity arm of JPMorgan Asset Management raised $1.44B for its twelfth flagship fund.

Crypto Corner

  • Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Jefferies are now selling complex crypto products.
  • Clare Flynn Levy published a smart article for the CFA Institute exploring who actually wins in a world without mandatory quarterly earnings (here).

Today’s Meme Pick

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