THE SANTA RALLY DELIVERS

THE SANTA RALLY DELIVERS

Good morning,

The Santa Claus rally has officially arrived. U.S. stocks hit fresh all-time highs last week, finally giving bulls the year-end celebration they were betting on. It is a welcome shift in momentum as we head into a shortened trading week to close out the year.

The real story, however, is in the commodities market. Precious metals have gone parabolic. Gold, Silver, and Platinum all rocketed to new records, with silver posting a staggering 167% gain year-to-date. Geopolitical jitters and speculative buying are driving a flight to safety that feels more aggressive than usual.

Getting started.

The Pulse

As of 12/26/2025 market close.

Markets

  • U.S. equities secured new all-time highs last week. The S&P 500 posted its best weekly performance in a month.
  • Europe's Stoxx 600 also climbed to a fresh record high.
  • U.S. high-yield spreads have tightened to 275 basis points. That is near a 25-year low.
  • Bond spreads in the EU periphery are compressing. The Italy-Germany 10-year spread narrowed to 70bps, and the Spain-Germany spread hit 50bps. Both are at sixteen-year lows.
  • Gold, Silver, and Platinum surged to all-time highs.
    • These metals are up 71%, 167%, and 169% year-to-date, respectively.
  • Palladium reached a three-year high.
  • The dollar had a rough week, posting its worst performance since June.

Earnings

  • See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

  • The odds on this seem disconnected from reality.
  • Trade your odds on Polymarket.

Headline Hunt

  • Trump met with Zelensky following a "productive" call with Putin (BBG)
  • The private equity industry faces more housecleaning in 2026 (WSJ)
  • PE firms are preparing to sell more GP stakes to raise cash (WSJ)
  • LPs are pivoting to smaller middle-market funds as the broader industry slows (FT)
  • Global dealmaking reached $4.5T this year. It was the second-best year on record (FT)
  • U.S. tech billionaires saw their net worth jump by $550B thanks to the AI boom (FT)
  • AI startups raised a record $150B in funding this year (FT)
  • Family offices are emerging as the new power players on Wall Street (WSJ)
  • Risks for investors could rise as crypto and private credit hit the mainstream (RT)
  • Mutual funds lost $1T in outflows, marking the eleventh straight year of declines (BBG)
  • Banks and traders are racing to capitalize on the historic gold rally (FT)
  • Apollo has separated its lending unit from its buyout business (FT)
  • Client data from Goldman Sachs was exposed in a law firm breach (BBG)
  • The North Sea oil industry suffered its worst year since the 1970s (FT)
  • Luxury brands are pushing into mass-market sports despite trying to maintain exclusivity (FT)
  • The U.S. and EU are clashing over free speech and tech regulation (BBG)
  • Tech billionaires are sparring with Congressman Khanna over a proposed wealth tax (FRT)

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

  • Nvidia will acqui-hire the team and assets of AI chip startup Groq in a massive $20B deal.
  • A consortium led by KKR and PAG will acquire Sapporo Real Estate from Sapporo Holdings for $3B, including debt.
  • Honda agreed to buy out LG Energy Solution's stake in their Ohio battery JV for $2.9B.
  • Sanofi will acquire biotech firm Dynavax Technologies for $2.2B, paying a 40% premium.
  • Blackstone will acquire Hamilton Island from the Oatley family for $810M.
  • LCM Partners agreed to acquire the consumer vehicle operations of Secure Trust Bank for $620M.

Venture Flow

  • Fintech platform Advance raised a $7.3M seed round.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Stonepeak and CPPIB will launch an offer to acquire a 26% stake in Castrol's India unit, listed at $2B. The deal follows their broader acquisition of Castrol from BP at an $8B valuation.
  • Activist TOMS Capital has built a stake in retailer Target, which has a $40B market cap.
  • Motive Technologies, an AI fleet management firm, is planning an IPO.

The Debt Desk

  • Netflix raised $25B from Wells Fargo, BNP Paribas, and HSBC to refinance part of its bridge loan for the Warner Bros. Discovery deal.
  • Nigeria secured a $1.2B loan from the UAE.
  • Senegal raised $1B in a regional bond sale.

Fresh Capital

  • China launched a national fund to direct state money into early-stage tech startups.

Crypto Corner

  • Crypto M&A is moving at a record pace with activity expected to increase in 2026.

Today’s Meme Pick

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