THE TRILLION DOLLAR IPO TEASE

THE TRILLION DOLLAR IPO TEASE

Good morning,

SpaceX is teasing a public listing that could trigger a massive $3 trillion wave of IPOs. Meanwhile, Oracle got hammered on earnings, CVC is setting up its next generation of leaders, and Lazard’s CEO believes lobbying is now a non-negotiable part of closing deals. On the macro front, the Fed cut rates again, but the vote was far from unanimous.

Getting started.

The Pulse

As of 12/10/2025 market close.

Markets

  • US stocks climbed yesterday as the market processed the Fed's third rate cut of 2025.
    • Credit default swaps for Oracle spiked to 125 bps, hitting levels not seen since 2008.
    • Cisco has finally recovered all the value it lost when the dot-com bubble burst.
  • Pakistan's KSE 100 index has jumped 47% this year and over 300% in three years, just ahead of a major IPO spree.
  • Long-term global bond yields hit a 16-year high as optimism for rate cuts fades.
    • Fed officials are split on 2026, with the median forecast showing only one cut.
    • Traders are currently pricing in two cuts for 2026.
  • The US 2-year yield dropped 8 bps to 3.54%, marking its best day in two months.
  • The Dollar suffered its worst day since September.

Earnings

  • Oracle beat Q3 earnings expectations but missed on revenue due to disappointing cloud sales, despite booming AI infrastructure demand; the stock tanked 12% on worries about debt, CapEx, and the AI bubble (CNBC).
  • Adobe delivered a beat-and-raise quarter as strong demand for its AI tools calmed fears about competition (BBG).
  • This week's lineup:
    • Today: Broadcom, Costco, lululemon
  • See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

  • Prediction markets, bond traders, and the Fed are all telling different stories about rates in 2026.
  • Trade your odds on Polymarket.

Headline Hunt

  • The Fed will start buying short-term bonds to inject liquidity into the market (WSJ).
  • The US Treasury wants to take the lead on enforcing anti-money laundering rules (WSJ).
  • Employment cost growth in the US slowed further in Q3 (BBG).
  • Lazard's CEO says a DC lobbying strategy is now essential for M&A (RT).
  • A potential SpaceX IPO puts $3T worth of listings back on the table (BBG).
  • Investment banks are building massive historical deal datasets to train AI tools (BBG).
  • Massive debt-fueled deals are making a comeback on Wall Street (WSJ).
  • CVC has created a president role as the PE giant prepares for succession (FT).
  • Blackstone says data centers remain an attractive investment (RT).
  • Ares is resisting the trend of partnering with traditional asset managers (BBG).
  • Paramount's bid for WBD has forged a rare alliance among Gulf investors (FT).
  • The Hong Kong IPO boom is hiding a sharp drop in underwriting fees (BBG).
  • Regulators in Hong Kong warned bankers to improve the quality of their IPO paperwork (FT).
  • Block trading in Japan hit a record high as corporate reform accelerates (BBG).
  • A surge in Japanese stocks is triggering a wave of stock splits (BBG).
  • Norway's $2T sovereign wealth fund wants to handle more trading in-house (BBG).
  • Canada's CPPIB is balking at paying fees to co-invest with PE firms (BBG).
  • India is opening its $177B pension pool to broader investment options (BBG).
  • Regulators say big banks are "debanking" industries they dislike (RT).
  • Zuckerberg is personally spearheading Meta's pivot toward profitable AI (BBG).
  • Intel's new CEO pursued deals that ended up boosting his own fortune (RT).
  • Google named insider Amin Vahdat as the new chief of AI infrastructure (RT).
  • Coca-Cola appointed COO Henrique Braun as its new CEO (CNBC).
  • A SpaceX IPO would likely make Musk the world's first trillionaire (BBG).
  • Bezos and Musk are racing to launch data centers into space (WSJ).

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

  • Paramount Skydance is urging shareholders to back its $108B hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, while Trump says any WBD deal should involve selling CNN.
  • Blackstone agreed to acquire utility-parts maker MacLean Power Systems and merge it with portfolio company Power Grid Components at a $4B valuation.
  • Chinese firm HSG is close to buying Italian sneaker brand Golden Goose from Permira for $3B.
  • Apollo and Capital Power Corp. struck a $3B deal to acquire US gas-fired power plants.
  • Mollie is finalizing its acquisition of GoCardless at a potential $1.5B valuation.
  • WTW agreed to acquire brokerage Newfront in a $1.3B cash-and-stock transaction.
  • Finastra, backed by Vista Equity, is looking to sell its US mid-size banks unit for over $200M.
  • Gambling group Evoke is exploring a sale.
  • Kingswood Capital agreed to acquire Safran's in-flight entertainment unit.
  • UST will acquire a majority stake in Italdesign Giugiaro from Volkswagen's Audi.
  • Barclays is buying a stake in United Fintech.
  • Stripe will acqui-hire crypto-wallet startup Valora, backed by Polychain Capital and Diddy.

Venture Flow

  • Fervo Energy raised $462M from investors including B Capital, Breakthrough Energy Ventures, Google, and CalSTRS.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Elliott raised its stake in Toyota Industries by $1.7B to 5.01%, ramping up pressure on Toyota regarding its buyout plans.
  • BlackRock is selling $2.1B of shares in Naturgy, trimming its stake from 19% to 12%.
  • Swiggy's $1.1B FPO saw demand from major investors like Fidelity, BlackRock, Temasek, Capital Group, SBI Funds, and ICICI Prudential Asset Management.
  • Lumexa, backed by Welsh Carson, raised $462M in its IPO at a $1.7B valuation.
  • Cardinal raised $240M in an IPO at an $850M valuation.

The Debt Desk

  • University of California raised $2.2B in munis after delaying the sale earlier due to the Trump-Newsom feud.

Bankruptcy Watch

  • Hedge fund creditors of Brightline, backed by Fortress, are crafting a plan to elevate their $1.1B claims by offering new financing.
  • Tricolor will sue founder Daniel Chu for fraud following its collapse; the DOJ and SEC are also investigating.
  • Canacol secured $67M in DIP financing as it restructures its debt.
  • Leon is entering administration as co-founder John Vincent outlines turnaround plans.

Fresh Capital

  • SeaTown Holdings, backed by Temasek, raised $900M for its third Asia-focused private credit fund.
  • LBP AM raised $525M for a European private credit fund.
  • NewView Capital plans to raise $500M for its fourth VC secondaries fund.
  • APEX is looking to raise $350M to invest in European sports assets.

Crypto Corner

  • Michael Saylor is criticizing MSCI's plan to ban crypto-heavy firms from its indexes.
  • The Senate is rushing to finish the crypto market bill before the holiday recess.
  • Michael Burry asked for photos of warehoused Nvidia GPUs after an analyst cast doubt on the shipment numbers. Read the thread here.
  • Paramount sent a letter urging WBD shareholders to accept its $30/share hostile bid. Read the full letter here.

Today’s Meme Pick

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