THE VENEZUELA PIVOT

Caracas is suddenly the hottest destination for high-risk capital.

THE VENEZUELA PIVOT

Good afternoon,

Caracas is suddenly the hottest destination for high-risk capital. Investors are booking flights to Venezuela to scout opportunities as the CIA suggests regime loyalists might take the reins from Maduro. It is a classic distress play unfolding in real-time.

Hedge funds are already cashing in on soaring bonds, and local stocks just popped 17%. Meanwhile, JPMorgan is launching a consulting unit for its top-tier clients, and OnlyFans creators are curiously dominating the artist visa pool. The market never sleeps.

Getting started.

The Pulse

As of 1/5/2025 market close.
As of 1/5/2025 market close.

Markets

  • U.S. stocks rallied yesterday as traders kept an eye on the Venezuela situation.
    • The Dow hit an all-time high.
    • The S&P 500 energy index rose 2.7% to hit its highest level since March 2025.
  • Global equities also pushed to fresh records.
    • Europe's Stoxx 600 and the UK's FTSE 100 both hit all-time highs.
    • Japan's Nikkei 225 surged 3% while China's CSI 300 gained 1.9%.
  • Venezuelan stocks surged 17%.
  • Argentina sovereign risk fell to a seven-year low.
  • Oil prices moved higher.
  • Bitcoin climbed to a four-week high.

Earnings

  • This week's lineup:
    • Wednesday: Constellation Brands, Jefferies.
  • See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

Headline Hunt

  • Activist investors are circling U.S. banks (WSJ)
  • U.S. firms will be exempt from the global minimum corporate tax (FT)
  • Data centers added $6.5B to secure power for the big U.S. grid (BBG)
  • A Goldman investment is under the spotlight in an FTI Consulting lawsuit (FT)
  • Nvidia plans to test robotaxis in 2027 as part of its self-driving push (CNBC)
  • Europe saw a record surge in negative power prices in 2025 (BBG)
  • Activist investors launched a record number of campaigns in 2025 (RT)
  • Investors are pulling money from Australia over rate risks (BBG)
  • JPMorgan launched a consulting unit for select clients (RT)
  • Deutsche Bank is trading above book value for the first time since 2008 (FT)
  • Melqart joins the wave of hedge funds expanding in Dubai (BBG)
  • A journalism-powered hedge fund finds good news can be profitable (WSJ)
  • Smart ring sales are outpacing smart watches for the first time (BBG)
  • Maduro pleaded not guilty in his narco-terrorism case (BBG)
  • Influencers and OnlyFans models dominate U.S. 'extraordinary' artist visas (FT)
  • Minnesota governor Tim Walz dropped his reelection bid amid fraud allegations (AX)
  • Europe saw a record surge in negative power prices in 2025 (BBG)
  • Investors are traveling to Venezuela to gauge business opportunities (CNBC)
  • The U.S. plans to meet with oil execs regarding a Venezuela revival (BBG)
  • Fed Governor Kashkari believes interest rates are close to neutral now (BBG)
  • The BOJ governor vowed to keep raising interest rates (RT)
  • Hedge funds ramped up bullish oil bets ahead of Maduro's capture (BBG)
  • Investors may go value hunting in 2026 as the AI rally matures (RT)

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

  • SGH and Steel Dynamics submitted an $8.8B all-cash takeover bid for BlueScope Steel. It represents a 27% premium.
  • Vistra agreed to acquire ten natural gas plants from Cogentrix Energy for $4B.
  • Crestpoint Real Estate Investments agreed to take Minto Apartment REIT private at a $1.7B valuation.
  • An investor group led by Apollo agreed to invest $1.2B in QXO.
  • Bridgepoint agreed to buy Interpath, the former restructuring business of KPMG, at a $1.1B valuation.
  • AE Industrial Partners agreed to acquire a majority stake in L3Harris' space propulsion business for $845M.

Venture Flow

  • Cambium raised a $100M Series B led by 8VC.
  • Erebor Bank, founded by ex-Palantir and Anduril execs, raised a $350M round led by Lux Capital.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Versant Media dropped 15% in its trading debut for a $5.95B market cap after spinning off from Comcast.
  • SBI Funds Management hired banks for an India IPO that may raise $1.4B.
  • Kraken Technologies raised $1B at an $8.65B valuation to spin off from Octopus Energy.
  • PicPay filed for a U.S. IPO that could raise $500M.

The Debt Desk

  • Saudi Arabia raised $11.4B in a dollar bond sale.
  • Mexico raised $9B in a dollar bond sale.
  • UBS drew massive demand for a $3B AT1 bond sale.

Bankruptcy Watch

  • Amos Global Energy Management is raising $2B for Venezuelan oil projects.
  • Vesper raised over $215M for its debut infrastructure fund.

Crypto Corner

  • The crypto market structure bill could be delayed to 2027.
  • Crypto users face home invasions as physical attacks double.
  • Bloomberg Odd Lots sat down with Goldman execs Jan Hatzius and Ben Snider to discuss their 2026 outlook (here).

Today’s Meme Pick

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