🔹 TRUMP'S IRAN DEADLINE HITS TONIGHT

Markets hold their breath as Trump's Iran ultimatum expires tonight at 8 p.m. ET.

Good afternoon,

Two events define this week. Tonight at 8 p.m. ET, Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz expires with no deal signed. On Friday, the March CPI print lands, and forecasts cluster around 3.2%, the first government data to fully capture the war's energy shock. Rate cut expectations for 2026 have effectively vanished.

For anyone focused on retirement planning, this is a week where inflation protection and capital preservation move from abstract concepts to front-page math.

Getting started.

The Pulse

Oil near $110. Fed rate cut odds for 2026: effectively zero. The market is waiting for one thing tonight, and one number on Friday.

Markets

S&P 500 futures dipped roughly 0.1% in early Tuesday trading as ceasefire optimism faded, with Brent crude steady near $110 a barrel.
Monday's session closed higher. The S&P 500 gained 0.44% to 6,611.83, the Nasdaq rose 0.54%, and the Dow added 165 points, led by Alphabet, Amazon, and Micron.
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson told clients the S&P 500 appears to be finding a near-term floor, recommending selective additions in financials, consumer discretionary, and mega-cap tech.
Traders have priced out all Fed rate cuts for 2026. The CME FedWatch tool shows an 86% probability of a hold at the April 28–29 FOMC meeting, with swaps markets assigning near-zero odds of any cut this year.

The tension between Monday's gains and Tuesday's caution tells the whole story. Markets want a deal. But with Trump rejecting Iran's ceasefire proposal and reaffirming his deadline, equity futures are stuck between hope and hedging. The disappearance of rate cut expectations is a significant shift for anyone whose retirement portfolio leans on rate-sensitive assets.

Earnings

Delta Air Lines (DAL) reports Q1 2026 before the open Wednesday. Consensus EPS sits around $0.64 on revenue of roughly $14.8–$15.3 billion, with the airline having raised its growth guidance to high-single-digit. The wildcard is jet fuel costs. DAL trades near $66.88, about 12% below its February high.
Constellation Brands (STZ) reports after the close Wednesday. Analysts expect Q4 FY2026 EPS of $1.68 on $1.84B revenue, with beer sales guided down 2–4% and wine and spirits down 17–20%.
Goldman Sachs upgraded Netflix to Buy with a $120 target ahead of Q1 earnings next week, citing live events and recent price increases.
Delta's report will be the week's first real-world read on how $110 oil is flowing through corporate cost structures.

This week's lineup:

Wednesday: Delta Air Lines, Constellation Brands

Gold & Silver Moves

Gold:

Gold remains well off its January all-time high, trading more than $1,000 below that peak. The dollar's strength during the Iran crisis has acted as a ceiling. In moments of acute geopolitical stress, the dollar's reserve-currency status has been competing with gold for safe-haven flows, and right now the dollar is winning that contest on the margin.

Swaps markets show a 1% probability of a rate hike at the upcoming FOMC and zero probability of a cut. That leaves gold in an unusual position: supported by inflation fears and geopolitical risk, but capped by a strong dollar and the absence of any near-term easing catalyst.

Silver:

Silver has pulled back harder than gold, which is reflected in the ratio. China's silver imports hit an eight-year high of 206.76 tonnes in the first two months of 2026, driven by solar panel and electronics demand. That industrial floor has kept silver from falling further, even as speculative safe-haven positioning has cooled.

The Gold / Silver ratio sits at approximately 64.2, near the lower end of its 20-year historical range of roughly 65–80. Earlier in the Iran conflict, the ratio compressed sharply as silver's dual role as both a safe-haven metal and an industrial commodity drove outsized gains. That compression has started to reverse. Silver's 20%-plus retreat from its January high, while gold has held up better, has nudged the ratio back toward historical norms.

At 64.2, silver still looks tactically expensive relative to gold on a long-run basis. A move back above 70 would signal gold reasserting its traditional relative value. But the structural demand picture for silver, particularly from China's clean energy buildout, provides a floor that may keep the ratio lower than historical averages for longer than usual. For investors weighing precious metals allocation, the ratio suggests gold offers better relative value at current prices, while silver carries more industrial upside but also more downside risk if the geopolitical premium fades.

The takeaway: With inflation expectations rising and rate cuts off the table, both metals remain relevant to purchasing power protection, but gold's relative stability makes it the more defensive allocation for retirement-focused portfolios right now.

The Deal Room

IPO / Listings

SpaceX laid out IPO details at its first syndicate meeting with 21 banks, targeting a June 8 roadshow at a $1.75 trillion valuation. Retail investors will receive a larger allocation than any IPO in history. (CNBC)

M&A / Investments

Broadcom confirmed multi-year deals to supply custom TPUs for Google through 2031 and provide Anthropic with roughly 3.5 gigawatts of compute capacity starting in 2027. Shares rose about 3% after hours. (CNBC)
Anthropic disclosed its annualized revenue run rate has topped $30 billion, tripling from $9 billion in late 2025, with over 1,000 enterprise customers spending more than $1 million per year.

Retirement Lens

This is one of those weeks where the long-term planning framework gets stress-tested by short-term events. The disappearance of rate cut expectations changes the math on bonds and income-producing assets. The CPI print Friday could confirm that inflation is running hotter than anything retirees have seen since the early pandemic period.

Gold's relative stability versus silver's pullback is a reminder that defensive positioning has different textures depending on the metal. None of this calls for sudden moves. But it does call for knowing where your inflation protection actually lives in your portfolio, and whether it is doing what you think it is doing.

Headline Hunt

Trump warned Iran can "be taken out in one night" while simultaneously calling Tehran an "active, willing participant" in talks.
Kalshi prediction markets put 60% odds on the S&P 500 falling below 5,900, implying roughly 10% further downside from current levels.
Eight tankers crossed the Strait of Hormuz Monday, up from fewer than two per day in March but still far below the pre-war average.
Two Qatar LNG tankers began heading toward the Strait's exit, the first attempted Qatari LNG export since the war began on February 28.
Jamie Dimon's annual letter warned that asset prices remain "very high" and the Iran war could cause persistent inflation markets have not fully priced.