TRUMP VS. JAMIE: THE $5 BILLION GRUDGE MATCH

It’s getting personal at the top.

TRUMP VS. JAMIE: THE $5 BILLION GRUDGE MATCH

Good afternoon,

It’s getting personal at the top. Donald Trump has slapped JPMorgan and Jamie Dimon with a $5 billion lawsuit, claiming "woke" debanking practices targeting his accounts. While the political theatre plays out in court, the markets are moving on real numbers: SpaceX is eyeing a historic IPO, Venezuela is pivoting toward capitalism, and private credit investors are hitting the exit door.

Meanwhile, volatility remains the only sure bet. Intel is struggling with yields, Capital One is buying growth, and the Russell 2000 is on a historic run against the S&P.

Getting started.

The Pulse

As of 1/22/2026 market close.
As of 1/22/2026 market close.

Markets

  • US stocks climbed again yesterday, fueled by solid data and cooling tensions between the US and Greenland.
    • It also beat the S&P for the fourteenth straight day - its best streak since May 1996.
  • US investment-grade spreads tightened to 71 bps, the lowest level since 1998.
  • Japan’s 30Y yield dropped 10 bps to 3.62%, recovering slightly from a historic selloff.
  • Gold, silver, and platinum all surged to new all-time highs.
  • The Dollar is sitting at a year-to-date low.

Earnings

  • Capital One missed earnings estimates on higher credit-loss provisions but beat on revenue and announced a $5.2B deal for Brex (CNBC).
  • This week's lineup:
    • Today: Booz Allen Hamilton
  • See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

Headline Hunt

  • JPMorgan bumped Jamie Dimon's 2025 pay package by 10% to $43M (WSJ)
  • Venezuela lawmakers are backing capitalist reforms for the oil sector (FT)
  • The US is actively seeking regime change in Cuba by the end of the year (WSJ)
  • Woman-led hedge fund Avala has gained 20% for a third straight year (BBG)
  • Trafigura sold the first Venezuelan crude under the new US supply deal (RT)
  • US Q3 GDP growth was revised upward to 4.4% YoY (RT)
  • India's holdings of US Treasuries have dropped to a five-year low (BBG)
  • Trump sued JPMorgan and Jamie Dimon for $5B over alleged 'debanking' (WSJ)
  • JPMorgan bumped Jamie Dimon's 2025 pay package by 10% to $43M (WSJ)
  • Selling Treasuries looks symbolic if European funds keep holding stocks (BBG)
  • BlackRock's EM ETF is seeing record monthly inflows as investors exit US funds (BBG)
  • Private credit investors are cashing out in large numbers (WSJ)
  • Private credit firms are pitching new funds to tap into retiree capital (BBG)
  • US regional banks are racing to the high-grade debt market for funding (BBG)
  • Europe is turning to short-term borrowing as pension funds pull back (FT)

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

  • Paramount Skydance extended its $108B tender offer for Warner Bros. Discovery to February 20 and urged investors to vote against an $83B sale to Netflix.
  • PayPal agreed to acquire agentic commerce company Cymbio.
  • A consortium led by Bouygues Telecom is weighing a $23.4B bid for Altice's French unit after an earlier offer was rejected.
  • ByteDance, the owner of TikTok, finalized a $14B deal to form a JV with Oracle, Silver Lake, MGX, and others to secure US data and avoid a ban; ByteDance keeps 20%.
  • Beazley, the UK cyber insurer listed at $9B, rejected a fifth takeover offer from Zurich Insurance that valued it at $10.3B.
  • Nestlé is seeking bids for a stake in its $5.9B water business, drawing interest from PAI Partners, Blackstone, KKR, Bain Capital, and CD&R.
  • Capital One agreed to buy Brex in a cash-and-stock deal worth $5.15B.
  • Arise Digital Technologies agreed to buy Telenor's 25% stake in Thai operator True for $3.9B.
  • EQT agreed to acquire UK secondaries giant Coller Capital for $3.7B.
  • Sun Pharmaceutical Industries is weighing a bid to acquire US-listed wellness firm Organon, which is valued at $2.5B.

Venture Flow

  • World Labs, the AI startup from Fei-Fei Li, is in talks to raise $500M at a $5B valuation.
  • Mews raised a $300M Series D.
  • Neurophos raised a $110M Series A led by Gates Frontier.
  • LiveKit raised a $100M Series C led by Index Ventures.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • SpaceX has lined up Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley for a potential $30B IPO at a $1.5T valuation.
  • BitGo raised $213M at a $2.2B market value in its IPO, pricing above the marketed range.

The Debt Desk

  • CVC is looking to raise $3.2B of debt against Global Sports Group.
  • Korea Development Bank raised $3B in a global bond sale.
  • Tailored Brands increased its loan and junk bond offerings to $1.1B to fund a dividend recap for Silver Point Capital.

SPAC Deals

  • Hecate agreed to merge with EGH Acquisition in a $1.2B deal.

Distress Signals

  • First Brands Group: Oaktree and Anchorage Capital bought stakes in the bankrupt auto supplier's $1.1B distressed debt.

Bankruptcy Watch

  • Plxsur, once a $1B revenue company, was sold out of administration for just $100k.

Fresh Capital

  • Millennium is carving out a dedicated credit trading unit.
  • Pinegrove Opportunity Partners raised $2.2B for its debut fund focused on VC secondaries.

Crypto Corner

  • Investors pulled over $700M from US-listed Bitcoin ETFs.
  • Stablecoins could start pressuring traditional monetary frameworks.

Today’s Meme Pick

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