VENEZUELA FALLS, MARKETS RISE

VENEZUELA FALLS, MARKETS RISE

Good afternoon,

Happy New Year. We are five days into 2026 and the US has already ousted Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela. If you thought 2025 was loud, buckle up.

The markets are greeting the chaos with a shrug and a smile. Stocks are hovering near all-time highs to start the year, bonds are having a moment, and we are seeing a massive rotation into emerging markets now that the geopolitical chessboard has been flipped.

Getting started.

The Pulse

As of 1/2/2026 market close.

Markets

  • US stocks are clinging to all-time highs.
  • Venezuelan bonds are ripping higher on the regime change news.

Earnings

  • This week's lineup:
    • Wednesday: Constellation Brands, Jefferies.
  • See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

Headline Hunt

  • The US has officially ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro (WSJ)
  • Investment bankers are prepping for a massive year of mega-mergers (WSJ)
  • The world's richest people added a staggering $2.2T to their wealth last year (BBG)
  • The Midwest is looking like the last bastion of housing affordability (WSJ)
  • The US attracted 48% of all global state-owned investment flows in 2025 (RT)
  • Sovereign Wealth Funds have hit a record $15T in assets under management (BBG)
  • Tesla has officially lost its title as the world's top EV seller (BBG)
  • Peter Thiel is opening a Miami office to dodge California's potential billionaire tax (BBG)
  • Senior investment banking hiring in Asia surged 60% (BBG)
  • Bridgewater and D.E. Shaw led a banner year for the hedge fund industry (BBG)
  • Warren Buffett has retired, capping a 6,100,000% gain over his 60-year tenure (RT)
  • SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all prepping for landmark IPOs (FT)
  • OpenAI is now the highest-paying tech startup in history (WSJ)
  • Brookfield is building its own cloud business to chase the AI boom (RT)
  • Brokers in Taiwan have frozen buy orders for Chinese military stocks (BBG)
  • Retail investors just posted their best performance year on record (CNBC)

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

  • OpenAI is rumored to be looking at acquiring Pinterest (listed at $18B).
  • Indian food giants Devyani and Sapphire Foods are merging in a $933M deal.
  • KKR saw its $506M bid for Yomeishu Seizo blocked by a major shareholder.
  • Bain Capital is picking up Korean activewear brand Echo Marketing for $344M.

Venture Flow

  • Moonshot AI secured a massive $500M Series C led by IDG Capital.
  • Indian agritech firm Arya.ag raised an $81M Series D led by GEF Capital Partners.
  • Satellite startup Pixxel is closing a $55M-$60M round led by Deepinder Goyal.
  • Saudi cybersecurity firm DSShield raised $54M from Merak Capital.
  • Retail software startup Rewaa raised a $45M Series B led by Wa'ed Ventures.
  • Web3 gaming platform RuneSoul picked up a $30M strategic investment.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Oyo Hotels, backed by SoftBank, filed for an IPO in India to raise $742M at a valuation of up to $8B.

The Debt Desk

  • Adani Enterprises is tapping the public bond market for $111M.

Bankruptcy Watch

  • Argentina is currently short $2.4B for its January bond payments.
  • Ethiopia has agreed to restructure $1B in defaulted notes.
  • Saks missed a $100M+ payment and is seeking $1B in DIP financing as it preps for a likely Chapter 11.
  • Lone Star bought $130M of defaulted debt on 600 California Street (formerly a WeWork hub).

Crypto Corner

  • Netflix announced a crypto-themed comedy film.
  • David Beckham-backed Prenetics paused its Bitcoin treasury plans.

Today’s Meme Pick

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