WAR, TECH PANIC & A $110B BUYOUT

Geopolitical tensions escalated yesterday as strikes against Iran persisted.

WAR, TECH PANIC & A $110B BUYOUT

Good afternoon,

Geopolitical tensions escalated yesterday as strikes against Iran persisted. In a strangely timed event, Claude also experienced an outage, with monitors suggesting the two incidents might be connected.

Getting started.

The Pulse

As of 3/2/2026 market close.
As of 3/2/2026 market close.

Markets

  • European markets took a hit with the Stoxx 600 sliding 1.7% to a two-week low.
  • Emerging market foreign exchange dropped 0.5% to mark its worst session since November of 2024.
  • United States equities ended the session mixed as traders processed the ongoing situation in the Middle East.
  • Oil prices spiked amid the geopolitical uncertainty.

Earnings

  • This week's lineup:
    • Today: Target, Best Buy
    • Wednesday: Broadcom, Cracker Barrel
    • Thursday: Costco, JD.com, Victoria's Secret
  • See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

Screenshot of a Polymarket prediction

Headline Hunt

  • The former president has promised to do whatever is necessary regarding Iran as the conflict continues to expand.
  • Many hedge funds are actively reconsidering their emerging market positions following the recent U.S. strikes.
  • Banks and funds operating in the United Arab Emirates are moving into emergency contingency planning.
  • Capital is flowing into gold rather than traditional bonds as investors seek shelter from the Middle East unrest.
  • Wagers on geopolitical outcomes have reached all-time highs on prediction platforms.

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

  • Paramount Skydance plans to merge the Paramount+ and HBO Max platforms following its massive $110B takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery.
  • Nvidia has committed to invest $2B into the photonics company Lumentum, which currently holds a $56B market cap.

Venture Flow

  • The Nvidia-backed firm Reflection AI is currently negotiating fresh capital at a staggering $20B valuation.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • The Japanese fintech player PayPay, backed by SoftBank, is pushing back the marketing efforts for its anticipated $1.1B public offering in the U.S.
  • The German defense supplier Vincorion is preparing to market a $350M public listing in Germany, targeting a valuation north of $1.2B.

The Debt Desk

  • JPMorgan is preparing to offload $20B in syndicated debt to fund the massive $55B leveraged buyout of Electronic Arts orchestrated by Silver Lake, PIF, and Affinity Partner.
  • ADNOC, the state-owned energy giant in Abu Dhabi, has temporarily halted its inaugural dim sum bond issuance.

Fresh Capital

  • The growth equity shop Bregal Sagemount successfully closed out its fifth investment vehicle with $3.5B in commitments.
  • The European credit specialist Arcmont is actively discussing a $2.2B continuation vehicle for a 2019 private credit fund, with Ares and Pantheon stepping up as leads.

Crypto Corner

  • The team behind the stablecoin Tether just froze $4.2 billion worth of digital assets due to alleged connections to criminal activity.
  • A federal judge declared that the crypto exchange Binance cannot force customer loss claims into private arbitration.
  • The promise of a nonstop, 24-hour crypto trading environment is facing serious headwinds from real-world geopolitical shocks.

Today’s Meme Pick

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