WHY SOFTWARE JUST HIT A WALL

Software stocks are getting hammered.

WHY SOFTWARE JUST HIT A WALL

Good afternoon,

Software stocks are getting hammered. The fear? AI isn't just a tool anymore - it's a replacement. Investors are dumping SaaS names and private credit exposure to the sector, fearing that "disruption" is finally showing up in the earnings prints.

Meanwhile, the macro picture is shifting. Stephen Miran is out at the White House, Kevin Warsh might be in at the Fed, and traders are betting on a steeper yield curve. Gold is having its best run since 2008, and the dollar is sliding.

And in corporate news, PayPal finally pulled the plug on its CEO after another miss. Nvidia is looking to back OpenAI's eventual IPO, and bankers are prepping for the busiest listing week in five years.

Getting started.

The Pulse

As of 2/3/2026 market close.

Markets

  • US stocks tanked yesterday as investors dumped tech names on fears that AI is coming for software margins.
  • Precious metals bounced back hard from the recent selloff.
    • Gold logged its best daily performance since 2008.
  • The Dollar slipped after its strongest two-day run since April.
  • Bitcoin is under pressure, hitting its lowest levels since Trump's election in November 2024.
  • Asian markets rallied, with the MSCI Asia Pacific jumping 3.1% on metals strength and its own AI optimism.
    • Korea's KOSPI surged 6.8% to a new all-time high.
    • Japan's Nikkei 225 climbed 4% to a fresh record.

Earnings

  • This week's lineup:
    • Today: Alphabet, Uber, Novo Nordisk
    • Thursday: Amazon, Shell, Reddit, Roblox
    • Friday: Toyota
  • See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

Headline Hunt

  • Trump signed the bill to officially end the US government shutdown. (CNBC)
  • Goldman is in a tight spot defending a female exec's ties to Epstein. (BBG)
  • Traders are betting on a steeper yield curve under a potential Kevin Warsh Fed. (RT)
  • Australia hiked rates for the first time since 2023. (CNBC)
  • Stephen Miran has resigned from his post at the White House. (CNBC)
  • International markets are hitting all-time highs while the US stumbles. (TL)
  • PE exits picked up last year, but returns are trending down. (CNBC)
  • Bankers are prepping for the busiest IPO week since 2021. (BBG)
  • Blackstone sees 2026 as the "year of the IPO." (BBG)
  • Blackstone says AI disruption is now their top risk factor. (RT)
  • Walmart has officially crossed the $1T market cap mark. (RT)
  • Intel is making a move into GPUs. (CNBC)
  • Disney has tapped Josh D'Amaro as its new CEO. (CNBC)

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

  • Investors are set to receive shares in Musk's SpaceX as part of a massive $1.25T merger with xAI.
  • Banco Santander is eyeing a $12.2B deal to acquire Webster Financial.
  • Germany is buying a 25.1% stake in TenneT's German unit for $3.9B.
  • Activist Donerail has offered to take MarineMax private in a $1.1B cash deal.
  • Castleforge is negotiating to buy London's CityPoint tower from Brookfield for $623M.

Venture Flow

  • OpenAI is closing in on a $20B investment from Nvidia as part of a broader $100B round.
  • Skyryse secured a $300M+ Series C at a $1.15B valuation, led by Autopilot Ventures.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • KKR is prepping a US IPO for Wella Company that could value the firm at over $4.3B.
  • Fuji Media announced a $1.5B buyback to end Yoshiaki Murakami's activist campaign.
  • Nvidia is eyeing an investment in OpenAI's future IPO.

The Debt Desk

  • Bank of America sold $7B of investment-grade bonds.
  • Saudi Aramco raised $4B via a bond sale that saw strong demand.
  • Banks are selling $3.75B of debt to fund Stonepeak's acquisition of BP's Castrol business.
  • Cipher Mining plans to sell $2B in notes to finance an Amazon data center.

Fresh Capital

  • Primavera Capital is looking to raise ~$4B for a new Asia PE fund.
  • Otro Capital raised $1.2B for its debut sports PE fund.
  • Eurazeo raised $567M for a private credit continuation fund.
  • Cavu Consumer Partners raised $325M for its fifth fund.
  • New Jersey's pension fund is proposing a $300M commitment to Ardian.

Crypto

  • Crypto.com launched a predictions platform ahead of the Super Bowl.
  • CoinShares mapped out stress scenarios in “Tail Risks for 2026: Where Bitcoin Sells Off, and Where It Reprices,” showing where BTC tends to crack first and which levels historically attract longer‑term buyers back in.

Today’s Meme Pick

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